President trump will soon host his Chinese counterpart XI Jinping. Their first personal meeting will begin on Thursday at the residence of the trump Mar-a Lago in Florida. It will be held at an early stage of the presidency, trump, whereas during his election campaign, he often attacked China, arguing that he is better equipped former presidents for “making deals” with Chinese leaders. In particular, trump criticized their predecessors for their trade policy. Trade relations, as well as the growing nuclear threat from North Korea are expected to be at the top of the agenda of this meeting. What is likely to happen? And that can make this meeting successful?— The editors of the online magazine ChinaFile.
Stephen roach (S. Roach Spephen) is a senior lecturer at Yale school of management (Yale School of Management):
Has never been a better time for the President to trump in order to demonstrate compliance Twitter — @realDonaldTrump. The upcoming summit in Mar-a-Lago with the President of the si also provides a great opportunity to show the true face of Donald trump.
In the spirit of his long-standing Association with professional wrestling trump started the classic internal struggle to resolve his identity crisis. In one corner are the traditionalists — the team headed by Gary Cohn (Gary Cohn) and Steve Mucina (Steven Mnuchin), headed by the still ongoing process of policy formulation in the National economic Council (National Economic Council) and the U.S. Department of Commerce, respectively. In the other corner are the disruptors (disruptors), led by Stephen Bennekom (Stephen Bannon) and Peter Navarro (Peter Navarro), the strategy no specific policy portfolios. Both teams, apparently, are good substitutes: senior Advisor Jared Kushner (Jared Kushner) at the traditionalists as well as Wilbur Ross (Wilbur Ross), the Minister of Commerce, and Robert Leitheiser (Robert Lighthizer), a candidate for the position of sales representative from the disruptors.
Each of the parties on the eve of the summit in Mar-a-Lago has developed its own particular agenda. Traditionalists are also supporters of the progressive movement. Sorry to be a serious problem of “confusion in the trade deficit,” they are trying to reduce the deficit in bilateral trade us-China relations and use the results as a means to “make America great again”. The focus of their attention is focused on increasing access of the United States in the rapidly growing domestic markets in China, especially in the car market, agricultural products and services (both financial and non-financial). Traditionalists are well adjusted to the agenda of President XI, which, apparently, drawn up in a spirit of mutual respect required for so-called “new model of relations between major powers”, which appeared after the summit, held in 2013 in California Sunniland. So the Chinese will only wish for confirmation from the administration to trump their new global initiatives, especially the project “One belt, one road”, the Asian infrastructure investment Bank and the recognition is based on the WTO principles of market economy status.
Disruptors I assume that the time steps were gradual and that this policy has not brought anything other than the growing trade deficit with China. In their opinion, it was precisely the means by which the once-great America was “raped” large-scale job cuts, closure of plants, manipulation with currency and non-compliance with WTO rules. Because the data are in summary form and are easy to use in support of its position — especially given the fact that the technological erosion of American industry began long before the rise of modern China, disruptors have at their disposal a secret weapon, that is the rhetorical support of the presidential candidate trump and his tendency to control the style of the campaigns.
In trump’s world, where uncertainty is the only certainty, there are clear limits to a certain set of qualities from those of us who claim to be an expert in the field of U.S.-China relations. If we fit to this relationship from the point of view of economists, strategists, foreign policy, historians or psychologists-lovers and in any case almost impossible to predict exactly what Donald trump is to sit together with President XI over the next couple of days. It is not necessary to say that recent events in North Korea complicate the visit. However, trump has revealed his plans. As he said in his recent interview with the Financial Times, if necessary, the United States is “fully resolve” the problems of North Korea — with China or without it.
The time has come for major events in the residence of the Mar-a-Lago, and his defense is going to get up @realDonaldTrump. But let you does not surprise — the disintegrator will always be a disintegrator.
Ho-Fung hung (Ho-Fung Hung) is a Professor at Johns Hopkins University:
Many commentators before and after me are right in saying that the problem of North Korea will have a big impact on this meeting. The launch of North Korean ballistic missiles in the territorial waters of Japan on the eve of the summit, the US — China suggests that it will be so.
There are many issues — Taiwan, the South China sea, trade, etc. — which could damage us-Chinese relations, but there is nothing more urgent than the question regarding North Korea. Kim Jong-UN lately is a more aggressive and disorderly, he often conducts missile and nuclear tests (two underground tests in the past year alone). In addition, he, as it became known, in broad daylight, killed his half-brother in Malaysia.
If you look back at the 1990-ies, the international community, especially Asian countries, was concerned that the leadership of North Korea, find themselves in a desperate situation after the disappearance of its sponsor, the Soviet Union, or out of control or fall apart. Such a development could cause a war or refugee crisis in northeast Asia. Then, Beijing has guaranteed the United States and its Asian neighbors that it will monitor North Korea, to keep her from aggressive behavior, as well as from developing nuclear and missile technologies. Since that time, Washington believes Beijing’s help is needed to maintain peace and stability in northeast Asia, while the U.S. military were busy in the Balkans, the middle East and elsewhere. Over the past 25 years, once in Washington there were debates on whether to compromise and help Beijing in trade, Taiwan, or other issues, it is inevitable phrase “We need the good will of China and help in containing North Korea” was a key argument in favor of run America requirements China.
Taking into account the growing threat to security posed by North Korea today, many Asian countries can say that China has not fulfilled its part of the promises. The development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons in North Korea is not stopped. The situation was exacerbated by the recognition by the Obama administration last year that a Chinese state company, in violation of international sanctions take part in the nuclear program of North Korea.
Many believe that Beijing either has lost control over Pyongyang, or a secret way helps him to realize his ambitions. Therefore, the complexes THAAD missile defense that the United States recently launched in South Korea, there are very popular. The South Koreans see them as a necessary protection against growing threats from North Korea in a situation when China is not particularly helpful. Nationalist China’s response to the placement of the complexes THAAD and the subsequent boycott of South Korean products has declined, public opinion of the people of South Korea to a greater extent in the direction of the United States.
The administration trump involved in its internal problems. Unpopular government in the country often tempted and wants to demonstrate abroad a certain amount of muscle strength. Chairman XI needs to take seriously the threat to the United States single-handedly destroy the aggressive capabilities of North Korea. If you start an open conflict between the United States and North Korea, public opinion in Japan and South Korea is likely to be on the side of the United States. Such a scenario would be a nightmare for Beijing, since it will force him to make a choice between the protection of Pyongyang from the rest, or leaving him alone with his enemies. Meeting trump and si represents a good opportunity — it is possible that this will be the last opportunity for si to promise more specific, more realistic action to prevent a military conflict over North Korea.
Pamela Crossley (Pamela Kyle Crossley) — a Professor at Dartmouth College:
For more than two months of his presidency, trump has created several opportunities for a wide range of issues — from climate change, Syria and Yemen to global trade and economic stability — to ensure that the United States has ceded leadership to other countries and lost its credibility. According to some of these questions are situation is used by the President si — he came forward and wanted to play the role of global adult. For the first time China has got the chance to take on the role of moral leadership in addition to its role in trade, development and military presence and all the necessary elements are under the control of si. Awareness of this in China successfully expressed in the assumption of the state media regarding the fact that the United States is just one of the stops on a world tour President XI. Nothing special, just another place where need to be noted.
To trump the challenge to represent himself and his country just important — without the hype, without the gilding, unmarked. Already for about one century, Americans are forced to undertake such efforts (in this regard, we can refer back to the days of Teddy Roosevelt to the time of the soft speech and big stick), and it seems that there is no widely accepted understanding at the level of instinct of how it’s done, and, of course, there is no assurance that trump has in reserve some way to do it, especially in the residence of the Mar-a-Lago. According to the overall United States are still the richest society in the world, as well as undeniable military giant. However, they are losing ground every minute as an object of respect and admiration. At the same time si, as it turned out, much better feel international role than all of his predecessors. Well it presents itself in international forums as a person confident and courteous as a person, able to command respect without fanfare. The initiative “One belt, one road” is still implemented as a scheme of mutual enrichment and stability in large parts of Asia, Africa and Europe. Nothing equal to this project yet.
But all this will be for si not so easy.
Trump has already managed to offend the dignity of all the world leaders who were at arm’s length from him. It’s one thing to sit on the other side of the world with a mine serious man while the United States squirm and writhe in a series inflicted on themselves strikes with a Taser. But it is quite another thing to hold a shoulder to shoulder meet with trump, not being insulted, puzzled or experienced both. Negotiators si needs to figure out how to keep the correct distance between their man and the American President, without resorting to their old tactics, that is, without shouting and jostling. Both parties have to perform very difficult work.
Isabel Hilton — editor of the web site ChinaDialogue.net:
As you know, the relationship between the administration of President Barack Obama to Beijing was not without problems — from turning the United States toward Asia in Beijing hair stood on end, and this period was marked by open geo-strategic rivalry that often took the form of public exchange of accusations. However, one part of the us-Chinese relations has not only brought positive results in domestic and foreign policy, but also consolidated a set of relations, which were sufficiently strong and positive to ensure the continuation of active cooperation, even at a time when everything else was in the freezer.
This part of the relationship, of course, was climate change.
The United States and China are the world’s largest sources of harmful emissions — they account for about 38% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Before and after the climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009 between the two countries, there was a negative relationship in regard to climate, and each of the parties refused to act if the other party did nothing in this respect (China as a developing economy was not obliged to cut emissions. And the United States had to do it, but refused to assume any obligations, since they did not sign the 1997 Kyoto Protocol).
President Obama and Chairman XI eliminated the deadlock and turned a negative attitude into a positive one, thus preparing the way for a successful outcome in Paris in 2015. It is difficult to overestimate the importance of this step, not only for the United States and China, are equally vulnerable to climate impacts, as other countries, but for the rest of the world: to Europe, to carry out leadership in the past, but recently switched over to other problems, as well as for the global South and many other countries which have almost nothing to affect climate change, but, nevertheless, have to suffer from its consequences.
In another world cooperation in the field of climate could occupy an important place in the agenda of this meeting — two of the world’s largest polluter may be able to agree on the deepening of mutually beneficial cooperation, which would provide them with broad international support.
Recently China stopped making statements on climate change, and perhaps the reason for this is the desire to avoid further raising tensions ahead of a meeting with a man who in one of his hard-defense of statements called climate change “Chinese cheating”.
Si understands that the residence of the Mar-a-Lago is one of the many plots of land that are under threat in the case of sea-level rise, but it will no doubt introduce himself very politely and not be stress.
Chairman XI made clear that China will not abandon its commitments in the field of climate, however, there is no doubt that the blocking of relevant initiatives, as well as the hostile attitude of the administration to trump action on climate impose an even greater burden on China, and may be less than the leadership just at the moment when you need more leadership. As a result, this meeting of high rank deprived of the ability to achieve an easy and positive result, we offer cooperation in the field of climate change. This is a diplomatic loss for the United States and China, while the other 195 members of the Paris agreements can deal with the fact that measures in the field of climate protection will be taken too low, and this will be done too late.
© REUTERS, Carlos Maggipinto USA Donald trump and Chinese President XI Jinping
Richard Bernstein (Richard Bernstein) — writer and journalist:
The word “historic” is often used ahead of a meeting with si — trump, and, of course, you can agree that any meeting between leaders of the two most influential countries in the world is important. However, let’s not let the theatrical aspects to obscure the very reality, and it consists in the fact that there are so many things that si or trump can do to change the basic pattern of the last couple of decades, during which the United States was forced to concede on many fronts against the rising China. Then follows a kind of balance summary.
The United States has had some success:
1. Taiwan remains democratic and de facto independent;
2. Trade with China is beneficial to American consumers, a number of major American companies;
3. There is a significant degree of cooperation on such issues as sanctions against Iran and climate change;
4. China has become a “normal” country, a rational player who does not want war.
The failures are more visible:
1. The United States, in fact, conceded in the face of aggressive territorial expansion of China in the South China sea.
2. The United States failed to persuade China to lower trade barriers, are unable to force him to do so or forced to abandon their unfair practices.
3. China did little to stop the nuclear program of North Korea, which is now already impossible to stop;
4. The process is incredibly stupid self-defense, the United States threw overboard the TRANS-Pacific partnership;
5. Militarily China is expanding measures to “restriction of access” against the United States in the Western Pacific ocean;
6. The main intellectual justification for “inclusion” of China — it came down to the fact that it will help transform it into an open, democratic and responsible global citizen was, for the most part (but not in General) incorrect.
In other words, China as a global model for a new authoritarianism, is moving to become the dominant power in Asia, and trump, despite all his tough expression does not have at its disposal funds, which could significantly change course. Messages in the media indicate that the President XI, who wants to make progress in improving the atmosphere, will make certain concessions in the field of trade and investment, which the administration trump, of course, attempt to loudly advertise. With regard to the Korean Peninsula, the trump as a great deal may be removed THAAD system to South Korea in exchange for providing greater pressure on North Korea. It is possible (but unlikely), but even if the two leaders agree to increase pressure on North, no other tool, except an American invasion (against this, China will decisively act) will not be able to stop the nuclear program of North Korea. The talking heads of the foreign policy of the United States will probably talk about how well these two people get along with each other. However, actually, the important is what might be called the deeper forces that are driven mainly by China’s determination to become a major world power, and the means used to achieve this goal; and in this sense it would be a mistake to consider the important question of whether si and trump each other or not.
Jonathan Fenby (Jonathan Fenby) — author of the book “Will China dominate the 21st century? (Will China dominate in the 21st Century?):
It is difficult to overestimate the importance of us-China relations and ties between the two largest economies in the world and the armed forces of the United States and China. The severity and uncertainty of meeting Friday Thursday and Friday by the fact that Chairman XI and President of the trump embody the opposite qualities. Cautious and discreet, si is very much a product of its political system; the whole of his career as a politician is methodically paving himself a way up through all the levels for 40 years. While bright trump is a political rebel who five times changed their party affiliation and who feels pleasure from creating problems for the “establishment” in Washington. Despite the mediating role undertaken by the son of the American President Jared Kushner (Jared Kushner), Henry Kissinger and the Chinese Ambassador to Washington Cui Tankiem (Cui Tiankai), there is reason to believe that si still not sure about the nature of the person with whom he will meet.
The Chairman of the si is still in the process of formulating a new, more expansionist foreign policy of China, and because it has demonstrated its ability to make important decisions and new paths, it is likely to be careful. This is especially true because we are talking about a sensitive period for him politically on the eve of a crucial Communist party Congress, which will take place at the end of the year.
It is significant that members of the Chinese delegation chose to stay in a separate hotel, not the residence of the President of Mar-o-Lago, and this was done in order to mark the distance between them and the host (and also in order to avoid danger and to deprive trump of the ability to force si welcome other guests).
These two people, apparently, will follow completely different strategies at the meeting in Florida: after his failure in health care reform and ban on entry into the country, and also in connection with the blocking of its candidate for the post of judges of the Supreme court, trump will probably try to achieve some quick results, which he can report to Twitter and congratulate yourself for this reason. His meeting with Angela Merkel has given rise to a lot of music for a bad mood, so he wants to give a positive impetus to the meeting at the residence of the Mar-o-Lago. Chairman XI may propose a few minor gestures — such as a discussion of the limitations of the Chinese steel exports to the United States (it is less than 1% of the total). However, his main goal will be to get the President of the United States agreement on the broader fundamental approaches that probably will not mean a lot to the operator of the transaction, but Beijing will be able to interpret them and use at their discretion. At the same time, XI wants to show himself as an advocate of globalization and a supporter of measures against climate change, and the purpose of these steps is to increase the attractiveness of China in the face of uncertainty regarding the position of the American administration.
David Dollar (David Dollar) — senior researcher at the Brookings institution:
President trump has set low expectations for the commercial part of the summit at the residence of the Mar-a-Lago with their messages on Twitter that these negotiations will be “very difficult”. And he’s right in this regard.
It is quite clear what the Chinese want from economic negotiations, primarily stability and absence of trade wars. They want to get from the United States and Europe the recognition of “market economy status” for their country, and believe that this is promised without any conditions after 15 years of WTO membership. It’s a matter of saving face, and, in addition, it is of practical importance when considering cases of dumping. China also wants the United States has removed restrictions on exports of high-tech products and provided free access to its state enterprises to the markets of the United States with the opportunity to buy there company. The Chinese wanted the United States joined the Asian infrastructure investment Bank, but also acknowledged the Chinese “One belt, one road” (and, in particular, sent representatives with the rank of Minister to organize their may summit). All this is unrealistic in political terms, with the exception, perhaps, of the direction of a senior member of the administration.
The United States wants to reduce the large trade imbalance and, in particular, asked China to eliminate restrictions related to entry to the market, which hinder the realization of American goods and services. In the automotive industry a 25 percent import tariff plus internal rules regarding the number of local components means that American brands sold in China, have enough American parts. Agricultural imports highly restricted critical areas, including in the supply of beef. In such modern service sectors as Finance, Telecom, media, logistics and healthcare the necessary direct investment to the United States were able to export services on a larger scale. However, China is the most closed market among the members of the G-20 from the point of view of investment openness in these and other sectors (in order For the opening of the Chinese market, in fact, led to the reduction of the U.S. trade deficit, the United States, for its part, should increase the savings by reducing the fiscal deficit and/or creating incentives for private savings).
China has for a long time makes it clear that he will gradually open up their markets, but, in fact, in ten years, there has been very little progress in this area.
The United States does not have much leverage to force China to open its markets. The threat of imposition of high tariffs is unlikely to force the Chinese to concede, but if they are, in fact, will be introduced, in this case, it will suffer and the American economy. Examples from history show that protectionism does not reduce the trade deficit. It leads to a reduction not only imports but also exports. Protectionism makes your partners more than the poor, increases the exchange rate and may trigger responses — all of the grounds on which your exports will decrease. Trump, being presidential candidates, threatened to name China a “currency manipulator”. However, China’s Central Bank holds over several years of intervention to maintain their currency on a high, not low. Therefore, in the interest of America to recognize that it is useful.
The first summit of the si — trump will be an introductory meeting at which each of the parties will speak about his concerns. Smart move on the part of China would be the opening of certain sectors (it can be beef, healthcare and financial services), since openness is in the interests of China. However, the highest Chinese leadership probably is not flexible enough to quickly agree to something like that, especially on the eve of the Congress of the Communist party. Most likely, China will make vague statements about things in their markets. Disappointing outcome will fuel waiting in the wings protectionist sentiment, however, China is betting that the us administration will take a pragmatic position and will not hurt their own economy through the introduction of austerity measures.