Donald trump, XI Jinping and trap of Thucydides

According to one British analyst, Chairman of the people’s Republic of China XI Jinping (Xi Jinping) is familiar with the concept of “the Thucydides trap”, as it uses it correctly during public events and understands that it is better not to go. Rachman Gideon (Gideon Rachman) cites the example of the conversation of the Chinese leader with the West, held a few years ago, during which he proposed to strive to avoid the trap of Thucydides. We are talking about the threat of armed conflict between the dominant power and a rising new power, as in the case of the war between Athens and Sparta, which was investigated by the Greek historian. A number of experts in the field of international relations are examined under this point of view the relationship between the US and China currently. But it seems that the other party, XI Jinping at the Mar-a-Lago (FL), neither this nor any other concept of the theory of international relations or history. Fortunately, the atmosphere at this resort, which is owned by Donald trump, where he chose a place for your rain, “the White house” is not conducive to the exchange of scientific knowledge. Four years ago the predecessor trump also chose to hold the first meeting with the new leader of China in the resort, only on the coast of California, in the estate “Sunnyland”.

The talks at the highest level in Mar-a-Lago were prepared and placed differently. In Beijing the Minister of foreign Affairs told the media the relevant information and comments. Not hiding the existing conflicts, especially in the field of foreign economic relations and exchange, he described the corresponding position of China and expressed the hope to find a mutually acceptable solution. In Washington about the impending visit, had informed the President using the traditional comments in Twitter, after which was followed by hysterical statements and reports of the misalignment in the trade balance of China. Trump called a very difficult upcoming meeting with the Chinese President, as, in his opinion, the US should no longer be trade deficits and job cuts (tweet from March 30). Consultant trump was his son. Meeting professional diplomat and millionaire-Amateur — special conflict of interests.

Attack on China’s trade balance was embodied in the order (someone suggested calling it a “decree”, and it seems to be true), dated March 31, make a thorough investigation of the causes of the US deficit in bilateral trade with the assessment of the situation in certain areas and for certain categories of goods to take measures to remedy the situation. Along came another decree on toughening of applying trade sanctions: fines for dumping, countervailing duties or other restrictive measures in case of violation of rules of trade. In the text of the order of the size of the shortfall penalties until may 2015 is estimated at $ 2.3 billion. This shortage is due to the slow and imperfect procedure of raising funds (although we cannot completely exclude the so-called effect trump: in his words spoken at the debate during the presidential campaign, the taxpayers well enough to figure out how to evade taxes or fines). It was also noted that available statistical and analytical data regarding foreign trade, US complete and satisfactory. On the same day, when it was published both ordinances that trump called the historical with the traditional exaggeration of their significance, U.S. Department of Commerce released an annual report on the obstacles to the development of international trade. From the above two documents should be, first of all, what trump is trying to win time so as, in the opinion of the American economist Paul Krugman (Paul Krugman), administration of the President of the United States has not the slightest idea on what to base trade policy of the United States, and can only throw threats. Remember the statement and refutation in regard to the “Memorandum NAFTA (North American free trade agreement)”, made to acting US trade representative.

XI Jinping might bring to the negotiations to Florida interesting topics. As in several other countries, economic growth in China may begin after a phase of decline, as in Europe, and after the slowdown, which, in spite of everything, don’t delete China from the list of countries with a dynamically developing economy. March was the ninth consecutive month of increase in industrial production, although the strong growth was observed in greater extent in those enterprises, which operate on domestic consumption than on those that carry out export orders. Now, when the growth of the domestic market has become an important engine of the Chinese economy, all of the above leads to an increase in demand for imported goods, some of which can enhance production and increase employment in the United States. in addition, the people’s Bank of China fixed the stable RMB exchange rate.

In the longer term, to the end of the decade, the needs of China’s oil imports will rise dramatically. Singapore just announced that the company Sinopec, China’s largest refiner and oil importer, wants to open a new supply route: Brazil, USA and Canada. Starting this year, China will take the place of the United States as the world’s main importer of crude oil, and by the end of 2018, an independent refineries will have to purchase abroad up to 2 million barrels of oil daily, thereby to provide the refinancing, but to the end of the decade, this figure will reach 12.5 million barrels daily.

If additional demand will lead prices, the manufacturers of high oil prices — in particular, shale in the United States and the Brazilian deposits of the seabed under a layer of salt, will be able partly to satisfy. In March 2016 Chinese oil imports from the Western hemisphere (Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia) was 1.3 million barrels per day. The prospect of growth quite impressively, especially if, as trump insists, to forget about the worries caused by climate change. Fortunately, China seems to be not ready.

An important topic in the agenda of the negotiations is, of course, is North Korea. Trump staying in the world of their fantasies, would like, that China has somehow influenced the DPRK. As explained, the Chinese permanent representative to the UN, China can influence, to impose sanctions against Pyongyang, to take clean and dirty work. As explained trump, the US can accept things the way they are. If to proceed from that and are there any aggravating circumstances around Taiwan or ill-considered actions in the South China sea, don’t fall into the trap of Thucydides will be very difficult.