Experts say that petrol and diesel is a little cheaper, and the liquefied gas will only go up
Fuel “price fall” in Ukraine seem to end: although the oil last week is still cheaper, but much slower than in the previous four week. A liquefied natural gas has started to go up. We will add that Ukraine has sharply reduced imports of gasoline and diesel in connection with reduction of demand for fuel due to the quarantine caused by the epidemic of the coronavirus.
What trends to expect this week, told our experts: Director of consulting group “A-95” Sergey Kuiun, the Deputy Director of the Scientific-technical center “Psyche” Gennady Ryabtsev and market analyst of liquefied natural gas Artem Kuyun.
What has changed in a week
The price of gasoline and diesel declined in all regions, but is 3-4 times slower than a week ago. 4 through may 12, these types of petroleum products fell on average in Ukraine only 25 kopecks./l, while a week ago the price drop was almost 90 kopecks./l. But even the “average” of 25 cents/l arithmetically obtained through regions where fuel remains the most expensive: it’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where prices fell by 50-70 kopecks./l. Fell by 40-50 kopecks./l prices in Kiev. But in areas where the earlier decline in prices was more rapid, now it was only 15-20 kopecks./l, and in the Chernihiv region gasoline and diesel fell by 6 kopecks. symbolic/L.
Liquefied gas 4 to 12 may on the average across Ukraine fell by 9 kopecks./l (for comparison, for the previous week was reduced by 51 kopecks./l), but for certain areas the prices have gone up already since 8 may.
The difference between the highest and lowest prices depending on the region decreased for all fuels except LPG.
A-92 the price range was 16.1% (of 2.80 UAH/liter, minus 46 kopecks./l) was 16,4%, A-95 – 12,7%, (2,63 UAH/liter, minus 46 kopecks./l), was 14.8 percent and diesel fuel by 11.9% (to 2.41 UAH/liter, minus 22 kopecks./l) was 12.7%, according to the autogas of 28.5% (UAH 2.13/l, plus 24 kopecks./l) was 24.2 per cent.
Prices for A-92
The average price for Ukraine – 20,86 UAH/liter (cheaper by 25 kopecks./l) and highest in the Luhansk region – of 22.48 UAH/l (reduction by 68 kopecks./l) and lowest in the Sumy region – UAH 19,68/l (a reduction by 22 kopecks./l).
Luhansk oblast – remains the only one where the A-92 is worth more than RS 22/L. Only in Sumy “second” is below 20 UAH/l. In most areas, the price is in the corridor 20,40-21,50 UAH/liter.
In Kiev, the cost of gasoline A-92 – 21,19 UAH/l (minus 49 kopecks./l).
Prices for A-95
The average price for Ukraine – 21,86 UAH/liter (cheaper by 25 kopecks./l) and highest in Luhansk region from 23.31 UAH/l (reduction by 68 kopecks./l), and lowest in Sumy region UAH is 20,68/l (a reduction by 22 kopecks./l).
Only in Sumy and Kharkiv region (UAH 20,95/l) you can take the “fifth” cheaper 21 UAH/liter.
In most areas A-95, the price is in the corridor of 21.40 and 22.20 UAH/liter.
In Kiev, the cost of gasoline A-95 – of 22.87 UAH/l (minus 54 kopecks./l).
Prices on DT
The average price for Ukraine – 21,31 UAH/l (reduction by 26 kopecks./l) and highest in the Luhansk region – 22.58 UAH/l (reduction by 68 kopecks./l), the lowest – in Kharkiv region – of 20.17 UAH/l (a reduction by 63 kopecks./l).
Lugansk region is the only place where diesel fuel still costs more than 23 UAH/l. In most areas the price is in the range from 21.10-21,60 UAH/l, and in five areas it is below 21 UAH/liter.
In Kiev, the cost of diesel fuel – 22,15 UAH/l (minus 38 kopecks./l).
The price of LPG
The average price for Ukraine – the 8.24 UAH/l (reduction by 9 kopecks./l) and highest in Ternopil region – UAH 9,60/l (reduction by 9 kopecks./l), the lowest – in Chernihiv region – of 7.47 UAH/l (reduction by 38 kopecks./l).
In all areas, in addition to Ternopil, gas is cheaper than 9 UAH/l, in three areas it is cheaper than 8 UAH/l, in the other – the price in the range of 8.00-8, 70 UAH/l.
In Kiev, the cost of gas – 8,19 UAH/l (minus 10 kopecks./l).
Analysis of the situation on the market
Experts say that more than two-month drop in retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel ends and the liquefied gas has ended.
“For a long period of time, when the oil more rapidly dropping is coming to an end, – said Gennady Ryabtsev. – Moreover, what in the world is gaining momentum awareness campaign on the fact that the volume of oil production sharply reduced. Recall, from may 1 agreements for OPEC and other major oil suppliers to the world market. Although still the oil supply above demand, the price of oil deliveries in June reached $ 30 per barrel (three times more than a month ago). Traders expect that in Europe will end the quarantine and begin a rapid resumption of passenger transportation by all modes of transport. So, fuel consumption will increase significantly. And price it accordingly too will go up.”
In Kiev two times prices have soared by taxi: why and when they will be back to normal
According to Sergey Kuyun, last week in Ukraine has significantly increased the wholesale price of gasoline.
“If the previous week the wholesale price was $ 119 per ton, A-95, then last week – $ 220, – gave the example of Sergey Kuiun. – Two weeks passed and almost double growth. That is, the price of gasoline started from the bottom and went up. In such a situation, it is understandable why slowed down the decline in retail prices, although this still has all the prerequisites. Many traders are afraid that they’re going to reduce retail prices, and then opt will have to buy at high prices. But the price pushes down a large oversupply of fuel on the market“.
Artem Kuyun noted that the main news of the week is that the gas started to go up.
“In April, the consumption of LPG fell by one-third, but the wholesale market responded quickly and delivery is also decreased, explained Artem Kuyun. – Now the situation gradually reversed. Biggest cheap stocks anymore, and gas went up. The rise in the price of imported gas at the border was very sharp, almost 60%, up to $ 200 per ton. In Ukraine, the price rose by 2500 UAH/ton (90 dollars)”.
What can change in a week
Experts say that reduction of prices on gasoline and diesel fuel will continue for another week, as it is not sold stocks purchased at low wholesale prices, and the market overstocked. But cheaper fuel is insignificant – on average 20-25 kopecks./l, as in the period from 4 to 12 may.
“The increase in the supply of diesel fuel and a slight decline in supplies of gasoline on the background of the decrease in average 20% of consumption due to quarantine talking about the buildup in the country’s significant reserves of oil. It can be estimated in 200 thousand t diesel fuel and up to 35 thousand tons of gasoline. These volumes purchased in particular in the period of minimum values, provide a favorable pricing environment, which still creates the potential to reduce retail prices by at least 10% (2 UAH/liter)”, — says Sergey Kuiun.
Gennady Ryabtsev says that the gasoline and diesel fuel will be mechanically fall in price until the end of the week, “losing” an average of 20 kopecks. per liter, as have stocks bought in April at low prices. But the risks for the termination of a downtrend: in may, in case of cancellation of the quarantine restrictions in Ukraine, the trend may change to upward.
However, he hopes that autogas until the end of the week will not go up, but cheaper too, the prices remain stable.
“I have a lot of skepticism that sufficient amount of fuel in the retail market someone suddenly start tomorrow to raise prices, thereby “offering” to customers to refuel the competitors,” concluded Gennady Ryabtsev.
But Artem Kuyun with this forecast does not agree: according to his estimates, the cost of a liter of LPG will increase recently, the increase may be quite significant.
“When gas was cheap, network, discount, operating on small volumes, “one truck” was a driver of lower prices – analyzes Artem Kuyun. – They are now for the same reason, on the contrary, will be forced to sell gas at a higher cost. And largest branded network, have remaining reserves of cheap gas, will raise prices after the discount”.
Artem Kuyun has estimated that in purchasing wholesale gas has risen 1.30-1.50 UAH/l. It is the potential to increase prices in retail. But, according to experts, the trend change is difficult to predict how quickly prices go up this week.
Meanwhile, the authorities announced that one of the following steps to mitigate the quarantine will be the resumption of public transport. About how it is prepared for operation in the new environment, see story, “Today”: