Election the groom

Whether to support Vladimir Putin and Aleksandar Vucic in the upcoming presidential elections in Serbia? What results can we expect on Sunday? And what this will mean for the future of Serbia?

The best of that technique that had even the current Prime Minister of the Serbian government and the current presidential candidate Alexander Vucic this Monday in Moscow, and it is impossible to imagine. There he met not only the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, but a yellow duck who protested in Moscow against Putin (and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev). The same ducks played in Belgrade against Vucic. Their color and appearance, and not only, suggest that the Serbian Prime Minister and Russian President one opponent. And this may mean that Vecici and Putin are on the same side. As for Serbia, which is massively and sincerely loves Russia and Putin, and in which the approaching presidential elections, such means a lot.

Yellow duck

Briefly about the ducks. We extensively wrote about Belgrade duck yellow, when it was important. Now we only recall that we were able to learn from public and reliable sources that all organizations and movements that supported the initiative “will Not give/do not drown Belgrade” is undeniably connected with the U.S. government-non-governmental sector and sources of financing, primarily the United States Agency for international development, the national endowment for democracy, the Foundation “open society” of George Soros and the Rockefeller brothers Fund.

Now about the Moscow main duck and “duck” Alexei Navalny. He is the founder of the movement “Democratic alternative”, which is financed by the already mentioned national endowment for democracy (the financial relationship confirms American 06MOSCOW12709 diplomatic dispatch published by Wikileaks). Hillary Clinton, who at the time was Secretary of state, publicly defended the Bulk in a speech at the Hague the eighth of December 2011, and a year ago the First Russian television channel accused Navalny that in 2006 — 2008 he was recruited by the American CIA and British MI6. Were shown the documents of these two state organizations supporting the allegations… Though probably more eloquent the message the American mainstream media about the leader of the Russian opposition, the existence of which, however, heard only 47% of Russians, and only one percent of these 47 would vote for Navalny “right” and nine percent “probably”, as shown by the February survey by the Levada Center, an organization which in the West is considered reliable. So, before the American media were reminded of the “Russian nationalist views” Navalny and his shameful connection with nationalists and skinheads, but now on Bulk write quite differently: “Mr. Navalny (40) — wonderful and photogenic figure with a model family, differing sharply from the usual gloomy apparatchiks, which are abundant in the Kremlin bureaucracy” (The New York Times, February 8, 2017).

This, of course, it is impossible not to conclude that the obvious similarity between Belgrade and Moscow ducks not an accident but a product of a certain geopolitical engineering. But more on that later.

Support from Putin

First back to the meeting between Putin and Aleksandar Vucic and the question that interests us in the first place, since the elections will be held in a few days and survived — one of the candidates. The question is: do this meeting in a number of ordinary public events or has expressed an electoral character. Of course, we mean that such election meeting, due to the Serb love for Putin and Russia, no doubt, Uucico best, and he will not fail to use it.

The fact that the Serbian Prime Minister will use a meeting, of course, understand also Putin and consciously went for it. And so there were no misunderstandings, he was sure that it was completely transparent. In the beginning of the meeting, as stated on the official website of the President of Russia, Putin said Vucic in front of TV cameras: “We know that very soon the presidential elections in Serbia to be held. We are confident that elections in today’s environment, in today’s Serbia, will be held at the highest level. Wish success to the current government”.

Protocol courtesy or open support expressed by Russian President Uucico? So polite Protocol Putin has never Survived had they met on the eve of the Serbian elections before (and we’ve been having some choices). So you don’t need a special shrewdness, that, as Bloombeg the title of his news, to conclude: “Putin supported Vucic”. Or, according to the Irish Times, “Russian President Vladimir Putin started the current week, the same as what ended last. He supported the European candidate for the presidency, which wants to strengthen ties with the Kremlin. On Friday, the leader of the French far-right marine Le Pen visited Moscow, and on Monday there arrived Aleksandar vučić, who is now Prime Minister of Serbia, which is expected to lead the country after the elections this week. If in the case of marine Le Pen, Putin’s support was hidden in that technique that Le Pen had in the Kremlin, in the case of Vucic, Putin expressed his support openly.”

The same explicit support for the candidacy Vucic, if you remember, had at an election rally in Belgrade and Kragujevac senior functionaries of Putin’s party “United Russia” — Pyotr Tolstoy and Sergei Zheleznyak.

Like it or not, but this is the case.

The aggressor in the arena

Remembering Tolstoy and his speech at the Belgrade arena last Friday March 24 at a rally on the occasion of the 18th anniversary of the beginning of the NATO aggression against our country, it is impossible not to recall one of the aggressors, speaking there (former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder), and then the insult, which he struck with his appearance, especially on a day like this. We will not analyze in detail the emotions that caused the shredder because swearing to anything. Was unsuccessful and all the excuses Vucic, claiming that Schroeder came to us as a successful reformer of the German economy, the merit of which is recognized even by Angela Merkel. She also supported Vucic (saša radulović it was criticized for it, but we have no information about how she took the criticism), thus turning it into a political alchemist who is able to provide confidence and German, and Russian support at the moment when Germany and Russia exchange sanctions against each other. However, it is worth adding that Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, no doubt, support Vucic for different reasons, with different intentions towards Serbia. So in the event of a further deterioration of relations between Russia and the West, such mutual support in the long term is not possible.

In connection with Gerhard Schroeder, if we leave aside the emotions and get back to the level of analysis, you can also find another interesting thread linking foreign guests of the Belgrade rally in support of Aleksandar Vucic (since the former German Chancellor, through the Minister of foreign Affairs of Hungary Peter Siyarto and former Chancellor of Austria Alfred Gusenbauer until Peter Tolstoy).

Today Schroeder is perceived, in contrast to (all) of us who consider him a person who we were bombarded, as the head of the Board of Directors of the project “Northern stream — 2” which Reuters describes as “the best friend of Putin in the West”, Manuel Sarrazin, member of the German “Green” — as “hired representative of Russia.” Gusenbauer, whom the Carnegie Foundation quoted in the same text 2014 about “Austrian acrobatics in Europe”, says on the West, Russia violated these promises, and says that he understands “why Russia is outraged”. Thus the Gusenbauer is a member of the Supervisory Board of the Rhodes forum, which The Financial Times calls the “propaganda of the Kremlin and the festival is a hotbed of Russian nationalists”. Péter Szijjártó, Minister in the government of Viktor Orban, his colleague in the struggle, not only for the improvement of relations with Russia, but also against George Soros, the list of enemies of which Orban is almost on a par with himself Vladimir Putin. In this sense, of Peter Tolstoy, Putin’s party functionary, not even worth to talk in detail need only be recalled that last week, probably for the first time, Vucic openly opposed the commander in chief of the globalist conquest of Central and Eastern Europe (“I am proud that we resist the Soros snake”). Given all the above, and be sure that all this information is recorded there and those who closely follow such things, the guest list at Belgrade arena takes on a somewhat different meaning and significant similarity of Moscow and Belgrade yellow ducks.

Results and prospects

Despite all this foreign support and its importance for the country, on Sunday in the presidential election in Serbia will vote we — the citizens of Serbia. So how do we vote?

Polls, as always, unreliable, first, because of the difficulty in determining people’s preferences, and secondly, because of the skilful adjustment of the results for political purposes, and they are encouraged to political favorites and obessolivanija enemies, and bring about discord in their ranks.

During the day the elections will be an important monitoring data on electoral turnout: whether it will exceed last year’s parliamentary elections, when turnout was low (voted by 56% of registered voters) and reached the average level. Higher, or rather a much higher turnout (though at the moment it seems unlikely, but still possible) should increase the chances of a second round of elections, assuming that the highest rating Vucic has reached its maximum, and more voters will vote mainly for one of his opponents.

If you ignore this option and the likelihood that not all voters of the SPS and the Union of Hungarians of Vojvodina and the party of Rasim Laich vote for Aleksandar Vučić, the most likely scenario is the victory of Vucic in the first round. All other options would be a big surprise and would mean a crushing defeat of the government candidate in that party that it is still supported for at least one year, are supported by 60% of voters by as much as ten percent more than Uucico is needed to win in the first round.

Regardless of whether you will need a second round or not, would be an interesting fight for second place, which can become quite unpredictable. More or less a real chance to take second place have Vuk jeremić, Sasha Jankovic, Vojislav Seselj, and even the whites of Preleukemia, if you believe some polls that indicate the darkness that prevails in Serbian political system.

But perhaps even more important will be the result of candidates of the civil orientation: Sasha Jankovic, Vuk jeremić, Sasha Radulovic, Nenad and Chanaka. And last, and before last election that the Pro-European political wing received a total of 20% of the vote. Because since the European Union has not become a whit more attractive, and their attractiveness is also increased, and generally these candidates did not offer Serbia anything except opposition Uucico. And if all together they will gain (much) more than 20%, this will mean that extra interest they brought this opposition solely. Such, in turn, will set the trend to the loss of popularity Survived, and he would attend to this, especially because in the future year there will be important elections to the Assembly of Belgrade.

Macedonian script

However, much more than Serbia, and with it all those who wished her well, have to worry about the likelihood of chaos in the night after the election, triggered by the contestation of the election results.

To understand what kind of scenario is it, and how dangerous it is, especially now, back to Putin and listen to major General Anton Waldner.

“We want to discuss the situation in the region, because different external signals suggests that there is a certain escalation,” — said Putin at the beginning of the conversation Survived, clearly alluding to the fact that the regional situation is complicated and becoming more dangerous.

At the same time, a similar warning was made by major-General Waldner, the commander of the rapid reaction force the European Union to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He felt it necessary to warn that, by the way, never done before that the peacekeeping European Union force in Bosnia and Herzegovina are ready to intervene promptly if flare up new conflicts. “I do not hesitate to call a reserve force if need be”, said Waldner, making it clear that this feature is real.

In short, warning that peace in the Balkan space is very fragile, arrived simultaneously from the East and from the West.

The role plays and always the volatile situation in Kosovo and Metohija, and of course Macedonia where far from out of the crisis. These factors further spread of the chaos is obvious.

All this convincingly proves that the primary interest of Serbia, especially now, are internal peace and stability, since unrest and instability is enough for almost all of our borders, and in the near future they will be even more.

In this context, the references on the front pages of Newspapers this Wednesday Aleksandar Vucic said that “he is fighting with those who want Macedonian script in Serbia.” Of course, this is his warning can also be seen as fear mongering, and as an attempt to motivate their supporters to come EN masse to the polls. For Serbia, it is best that these warnings about the great scripts and really had a would be extremely unattractive politically motivated without any real reason.

But, on the other hand, during the current campaign had already accumulated too many signals that even if something like this was brewing, we readily and without hesitation would refuse to believe Vucic just because they belong to him, because for him they are politically beneficial.

In other words, we all look forward to these Sunday elections with a certain anxiety, but not because of the results, but because they can be challenging (and it can lead to heinous consequences), and with the hope that Vladimir Putin, amongst others, has prophetic abilities. We hope his forecast that the elections “in today’s environment, in today’s Serbia, will be held at the highest level” is justified. If Russia will say the same thing and after closing the polling stations, it will clearly indicate that all the opposite (if they ever actually hear) is beneficial to those who do not wish Serbia good, which, as you know, the us wants Russia.