“The fly” at the Consulate, or the casus belli is coming

Thin red line in provocations aimed to undermine Polish-Ukrainian relations crossed. It can be said after the shelling the Polish Consulate in Lutsk, which was not a surprise. The fact that such incidents will occur, was clear. All thought not about whether it will happen, but rather when it will happen.


Before proceeding to the analysis of what happened in Lutsk, you should look at the big picture. The situation across our Eastern border are restless, it requires not just careful observation, and decisive action. Russia, Belarus, Ukraine — this Bermuda triangle of influences Putin again has declared itself. This time particularly loud.


Propaganda has no taste


In 2013, when the Maidan revolution began, the records of popularity on the Internet beat the figure, which compared a map of protests in Ukraine (dozens of cities) and map of Russia, where despite the more stringent regime no riots throughout the vast territory was not. Last weekend changed that map. For how long? And could it predict?


Makhachkala is the capital of Dagestan. Republic is part of the Russian Federation, the Foundation of its economy are industry and transport. There are paths leading from Russia to Azerbaijan and Iran. So far the only notable event in the history of Makhachkala, reported popular encyclopedia “Wikipedia” was the earthquake of 1970, which claimed the lives of 31 people. In addition, the city and the entire region suffered from terrorist acts by Islamic militants from the Caucasus.


For example, in 2013, the city shook the attack in which a suicide bomber, the widow of two Islamic militants blew himself up outside the interior Ministry. However, serious conflicts are tearing the entire North Caucasus: Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, and Dagestan. The national anti-terrorist Committee of the Russian Federation declares, however, that this trend is on the wane, and all the leaders of the militants have already eliminated, but the situation remains unstable.


For balance it should be mentioned that in 2011-2013 in the capital’s football team of Dagestan, Anzhi, and for a time played one of the best strikers in the world Samuel Eto’o (Samuel Eto’o), which earned 20 million dollars a year. The team was coached by Roberto Carlos (Roberto Carlos), followed by Guus Hiddink (Guus Hiddink). All this became possible thanks to the petrodollars, which pumped up the team of oligarch and politician Suleiman Kerimov.


Why exotic Makhachkala appeared on the pages of our newspaper? Because in this city, which is separated from Warsaw for more than 2,000 miles in last weekend unexpectedly protests erupted against the policies of Moscow. The impetus for them was the documents released by the oppositionist Alexei Navalny, which focuses on secret property, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.


Maidana come out of nowhere


In the film, the narrator which is the Bulk, describes dark deeds of the Prime Minister and showing his elegant home, photographed with drones. A 45-minute video the viewer sees a vast wealth “Dima” and his people from summer residences in Sochi to cattle, which were imported from the United States. The film was watched by several million people, and Russians, listening to popular in social networks the call, took to the streets, which, of course, could not induce the reaction of the security services.


In Makhachkala have detained more than 100 people. In this far away from the Kremlin walls such peaceful protests, before, perhaps, had not happened. The same thing happened in St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Yekaterinburg, and dozens of other cities. The old map is outdated: the protests have spread throughout the Russian Federation. They are equally surprised by both the authorities and analysts.


In an extensive analytical report of the Warsaw Centre for Eastern studies under the title “the Crisis in Russia. The decline of the model of management of the economy”, which appeared on March 3 of this year, you can read that Russian society does not put pressure on the Kremlin elite. The revolt of the elites, the coup and public rebellion in a broad sense, analysts seem unlikely. “The prevailing need for stability and unwillingness to take risks associated, in particular, with traumatic society with memoirs of the transformation process 1990-ies, weaken the desire for system reform. Its influence on social behavior has a high level of economic and psychological dependence on the state,” wrote Maria Domanska (Maria Domańska).

This case was not the only one. Then, how hard is it to predict events in the East, show the comments of Polish experts in this region, which appeared just before the outbreak of the Ukraine revolution. Kiev authorities have decided to abandon the Association agreement with the EU, and in many Ukrainian cities held protests. They, however, wrote: “it Seems that using the weak support and a fragmented opposition will not be able to keep the mood of protest in society, in the coming days, their degrees will drop”. So noted the same Centre for Eastern studies 27 November 2013, i.e. a few days before the Kiev Maidan reached thousands of people, demanding the resignation of Viktor Yanukovych. In both cases, analysts have demonstrated their helplessness. The human factor gets triggered unexpectedly, not submitting any preliminary signals.


Putin’s army waiting for the order


Well, predict the weather, the reaction of women and the situation in the countries of the former USSR 100% impossible. So, we can only change political strategy in which you need to consider a variety of scenarios. Commenting on the protests in Russia, Advisor to the President Mersky (Krzysztof Szczerski) said: “the Situation in Russia is of great concern, it is not the first time we’ve seen that the Russian government reacted very harshly to the speech of the opposition.” “We call for public dialogue. Such dialogue is important to conduct in each country”, — said Merski.


Dialogue in Russia, of course, necessary, but we need to remain vigilant, do not decide whether Vladimir Putin to try out new tools to suppress protests, such as Regardie. The number of these forces, which decided to form a year ago, should reach 400,000. The Kremlin plans to create 84 regional offices, one for each region. There is no doubt that, if necessary, the guard will act not only in Moscow, but also to protect the oligarchs in Makhachkala.


But that’s not all. It may be that on the eve of the presidential election in 2018, when the crisis in Russia deepens, the Kremlin will decide to present to the people a new “success in the international arena”. What will this mean? The fact that in Belarus may repeat the Crimean scenario on which there was a long talk. Has become almost clear that Alexander Lukashenko plays again with Europe in cat-and-mouse, assuring her in their independence from Russia and harshly suppressing the protests. But soon in this country will exercise “Zapad-2017”, which will arrive in several times more soldiers than in years past. Whether they go back or remain at “Suwalki isthmus” — the place from which, according to many analysts, could start the Third world war?


Grenade launcher, passivity and “proud silence”


On Wednesday, just as a bolt from the blue came the message that unknown fired at the Polish Consulate in Lutsk from a grenade launcher (RPG-18 “Fly”). This event is in contrast to the Russian protests should not be surprising. We have been seeing that the intensity of the provocation on Kyiv — Warsaw is growing. Poland’s Ambassador to Ukraine Ian Hells (Jan Piekło) said directly: “This incident goes beyond the “cemetery of terror”, we moved to a new stage.” The same is said of the Ukrainians. “Provocations against Poland, which regularly happens in Ukraine, is beneficial to only one party — the Russian Federation, the handwriting of which is visible to the naked eye”, — stated Ukrainian investigators, calling the incident a terrorist act. That the desecration of monuments and provocations on the borders all is not restricted, it was said long ago. The victims yet, however, a diplomatic crisis between clumsily involved in the search for criminals by Ukraine and Poland, whose policy in the Ukrainian direction is reminiscent of “proud silence” deepens. If the response to the attack will not be a joint investigation, but only the call of the Ambassador of Ukraine to the carpet at the MFA, there is no doubt that the “unknown” will be emboldened and will take further steps.


At the end of October last year I wrote a fantasy scenario of how this can unfold the process of growing the scale of the provocation. It all began with the burning of the flag of Ukraine on the independence March in Warsaw and the desecration of monuments, then there was the attack on the Polish diplomatic mission and the Ukrainian attack as a retaliation, and then under mysterious circumstances, started out to die citizens of our two countries. My story married casus belli: on the territory of Poland fell brought from Donbass rocket systems “Grad”. In this case, Poland would have to react differently than she ought to respond now.


This black scenario, unfortunately, is becoming a reality. If the projectile grenade could fly to the Consulate in Lutsk, he will fly to the vicinity of Przemysl, which lies just four kilometers from the Ukrainian border. But to combine the efforts will be later. That will make the two capitals? But if someone dies under mysterious circumstances? Yes, should strictly raise the issue of security of the poles in Ukraine, thousands of Ukrainians in our country. Are the Warsaw and Kiev to guarantee them security? What “third party” and “unknown perpetrators” are not considered victims, we know. And The Kremlin? When he senses danger, he becomes particularly insatiable. Can not forget about it.