February 1917 and Putin’s Russia

The century of the February revolution leads to the Kremlin mystical fear. This in itself is significant for the tongue-in-cheek bravado of the leaders of the Putin regime is hiding a deep uncertainty of the future.

When stop the war of Putin’s regime against Ukraine, when will return the Crimea and the Donbass? Sober analysts give a bad answer — no sooner than Putin will leave.

But it will happen, maybe not soon — in spite of bodraksky predicted by some optimists, which year are predicted close to the fall of the Putin regime.

Meanwhile, in 2018, when the Russian President will formally receive the right to be reelected for a new six-year term, he will turn 66 years — less than now Trump. And when after six years the term expires, Putin will be incomplete 72. As one hero of the old Soviet film, “the age of prosperity for politics.” About the health of Putin’s different rumors, and there is not a shred of reliable information, except that the visible traces of the work of cosmetologists on his face.

And few people today there is no doubt that ingenious Kremlin spin doctors in the case which will come up for Putin the way de facto to keep in the hands all completeness of the power in Russia and after 2024, up until death or complete senility, Fidel Castro.

But there is one “but”. Russia, as said unknown wit, a country with an unpredictable history.

This once again confirms the centenary of the February revolution, which we now celebrated not in February, and in March according to the Gregorian calendar.

Of course, Putin is unlikely to go the beaten track and again become the sole Prime Minister under some powerless the President is too “great and terrible, as Goodwin” was Vladimir Putin over the past 10 years, to again become Prime Minister, like some pathetic Medvedev — it is not a Royal matter.

By the way, don’t rush to write off Medvedev as a candidate in powerless presidents. Who said that Dmitry Medvedev does not agree to re-work the Locum Tenens of the presidential throne? Who else Putin has every reason to trust, in addition to Medvedev? He was true to his word: the watch have taken the watch has passed, in 2008, promised to do in 2012 “castling” in the opposite direction — and did it without a murmur.

After 2024, Putin may be the “Supreme leader”, “leader”, the honorary Chairman of “United Russia” or any another Civil, National, or people’s Patriotic front — call it what you want. It is not necessarily even to the rank and position was formalized in the Russian legislation.

And maybe everything will be easier — loyal members of the State Duma carefully done so that advance will come from the Kremlin commercials in the year 2022 or 2023 to make something that is not done at the time to amend the Constitution to allow the incumbent President to run for a third consecutive term. Or even easier is to cancel the article, limiting time policy on a post of the President of the Russian Federation. A lot of options.

But there is one “but”.

Russia, as said unknown wit, a country with an unpredictable history. This once again confirms the centenary of the February revolution, which we now celebrated not in February, and in March according to the Gregorian calendar.

Let’s go back in 1913. Before the fall of the autocracy remains only four years. Throughout the Russian Empire — how would modern advocates — widely and solemnly, in an atmosphere of high Patriotic enthusiasm and widespread unity with their Orthodox subjects of the Emperor, celebrated the 300th anniversary of the Romanov dynasty.

A year later the situation is even more Patriotic enthusiasm Russia got involved in a suicidal war with Germany and Austria-Hungary.

But then, in 1913, in Russia, there is stability and order. Revolutionary upheavals behind. Opponents of the regime — who is where. Some hanged, others shot, and others are sitting in prisons and the links or in the best case — on the shores of the Swiss lakes, and sad writing in the diaries, it is hardly in Russia in their lifetime there will be another revolution.

Russia’s economy is on the rise, creating new jobs, increasing the standard of living of ordinary citizens, the result of the Stolypin agrarian reform, no matter how half-hearted and inconsistent it may be, there is a class of wealthy farmers, Russian agriculture feeds half of Europe. Fabulously rich Industrialists, bankers, merchants, owners of Railways, shipping companies and textile factories. Ukrainian sugar magnate Paul Kharitonenko, a native of the Sumy peasants building in the heart of Moscow, directly opposite the Kremlin across the river, a real Palace that has been preserved to the present day — now there is the residence of the British Ambassador, said the most luxurious in the world.

In literature and art in the yard — the heyday of the Silver age had just died away the first Paris seasons of Diaghilev, the world — fashion for all things Russian. Develop science, then still among the few winners of the recently established Nobel prize — has two Russian scientists, Ivan Pavlov and Ilya Mechnikov. A graduate of the Kiev Polytechnic University, the famous aircraft designer Igor Sikorsky designed the world’s first heavy multi-engine bomber “Ilya Muromets”, which in the summer of 1914 will make the first flights from Petersburg to Kiev.

If someone said that in just four years, the monarchy will fall, Russia will collapse into the abyss of revolutionary upheaval, the economy will rapidly fall apart, some will rush into exile to save their lives, and other volunteers in the civil war and go brother against brother, and Russia wash their blood. What a divine shot like a dog, without trial, along with the children and household in the basement of his last house in Yekaterinburg, and power in the country for decades to capture a tiny fraction of extremist Bolsheviks, led by little-known left-wing radical and populist Ulyanov-Lenin, such a person would declare crazy. But, nevertheless, it all happened.

I personally share the opinion of historians, says: the main reason for the collapse of the previous regime was a concentration of all power in the hands of one person, who every year of his reign, in modern bureaucratic language, more did not correspond to his post.

The last Russian Emperor Nicholas II, according to the memoirs, was a very good man, but a ruler was Nicodyne. Did not know people did not possess the political will was prone to inappropriate religious mysticism, put his wife above of dedicated, professional advisers.

By February-March of 1917, Nicholas II was not an absolute monarch. However, the power of the Emperor was still so great that he alone soared high above the rest of the Russian political structure, and the solitude became more and more. And all the more dangerous for him.

Something like that, in my opinion, is slowly starting to happen in today’s Russia: is Putin clutter under the feet of political servants, these Ministers, officials of the presidential administration, opposing the security forces is increasingly changing the governors, completely milled MPs, is the Russian autocrat of the sample in the first quarter of the twenty-first century.

His loneliness and detachment from reality — clearly is increasing from year to year. Hence its easy to read screen self-belief in everything he says. Hence the number of errors of foreign policy failures, outright adventure, economic stagnation, which is still possible to mask the cunning manipulation of official statistics and a floating exchange rate, in fact, tied to changing prices for oil and gas, but which does not replace quantitative growth and — what is really the most important thing — quality of development with scientific and technological progress in all fields and comprehensively improve the quality of life of the population.

While the “krymnash” is a replacement for the happiness of the people. But how long will it last — nobody knows.

Let me remind you — the spark that ignited the revolution in Petrograd had not been military failures at the front, the growth of political discontent in the active circles of society and not even the princely Fronde, when the next most influential relatives of Nicholas II began openly to call a king so he gave the leaders of the State Duma to form a “responsible Ministry” — that is, the government — and thus shifted to the Deputy corps the responsibility for any errors or unpopular decisions of this government.

No spark was the disruption of supplies to the stores of cheap bread. Note: not the hunger, not the lack of bread in General, but a few days of acute shortage of cheap, low-grade bread. Here is a seemingly small “black Lebedenko” flew over Petrograd in the late winter of 1917, touched the wing and knocked the building of the Russian Empire.

And what is interesting — despite the fact that in Russian Internet now, there are many interesting publications and whole media projects, dedicated to the centenary of the revolutionary events of 1917, the most powerful Pro-government media is public and parapublic TV channels, radio stations carefully around this theme party, they fear self-fulfilling Putin’s regime of a new “black Swan.” According to my information they have on this bill urgent wishes again.

Hence, the century of revolution leads to the Kremlin mystical fear. That in itself is remarkable — for a cheeky, tongue-in-cheek, self-confident bravado of the leaders of the Putin regime is hiding a deep insecurity in yourself and your future.