For oil in the Arctic areas of Russia need Western technology, but they are impossible to obtain because of the sanctions.
At the seminar in Helsinki the Finnish Professor Pekka Sutela (Sutela Pekka) suggested that highly dependent on oil and gas exports, Russia’s economy is likely to no longer be able to grow steadily, and the country will not be among the richest countries in the world.
According to him, a good growth is preserved only in South Korea, Israel and Finland.
“In order to become rich, you have to learn how to use innovative technologies that Russia usually fail,” — said Sutela.
Within ten years, Russia aims to achieve growth through innovation, but it is absolutely not possible. According to Sutela, in Russia, for example, no company included in the global value chain.
In Western countries slowed down the speed of economic growth, the demand for oil also grows. The sharp rise in oil prices that would bring profit to Russia, is not expected.
Russia’s problem lies in the fact that it exports power to the countries with slowly growing economies, mainly in Europe. Of the 15 largest countries to which exported oil, the economy of China develops rapidly.
According to Sutela, Russia exports raw materials and imports consumer goods. Russia’s foreign debt is also considerable.
The large volume of investments in Russia fell sharply, from 18% to 3% of GDP in ten years. “A large part of them consists of their money of the country, which twist through offshore companies”.
The energy exports are also expected technical problems, for oil development in the Arctic areas require Western technology that Russia can’t use because of the sanctions imposed in connection with events in Ukraine.
Sutela says that several years ago Russia was able with the help of Western technology to create the oil industry in Western Siberia, since then there was no current restrictions.
Oil reserves are much less than gas and coal. Enough oil for 22 years, gas — for 55 years, and coal — 400.
The value of weapons exports from Russia, according to Sutela, small. The country exports air defence systems, because their production is well established. Buyers, however, is not enough.
The production of fighter fell from 1980-ies from one hundred to three or four a year. Once they have been made in the amount of 38 pieces. “It was about bad time that Algeria later returned”.