After Syria… world war or full settlement?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: “the War in Syria will continue as long as it is part of a global conflict involving other States.” In an interview with the Associated Press he also added that “there are many external factors influencing this war.”

The war in Syria opened the way for a new cold war between the two poles: the West, headed by USA and Germany and the East led by Russia. The continuing conflict in the middle East puts the warring parties face a long armed struggle that will end only if significantly change their position in the region.

This can happen either with the full normalization of relations among all parties, or, subject to the continuation of the war, the causes of which lie far beyond Syria and the region, namely in the international arena.

The vicissitudes of the Syrian war and the concomitant failure of the talks on resolution of the conflict in Geneva and Astana does not give grounds to assume that soon will be found out of the crisis, as well as the fact that the last assumed the character of a global confrontation.

So, the President of the strategic research center “Russia — Islamic world” Shamil Sultanov said that “the conflict in Syria spirals out of control, the failure of the Russian-American agreement forces us to draw several conclusions. This indicates the inability of great powers to influence the conflict, which increases the importance of the role of regional actors. Therefore, in the case that the situation would continue, the confrontation will turn into a worthless game without the ability to negotiate. An alternative to this game is either a complete victory for one side or defeat.”

Intertwined multiple interests in Syria showed how they are sensitive to the situation in the region. Each party, therefore, intends to carry out the following steps.

According to the statements of the official representative of the United States, America intends to deploy in Syria, the artillery battery of the marine corps in support of operations against ISIL (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) in the province of raqqa. He, in particular, stated that “soldiers of the 11 groups of Marines have deployed a battery of 155mm howitzers on one of the best fronts in Syria.”

The United States wants to place in Syria, 500 troops, special operations Forces to support militias fighting against ISIS, especially that of the “Syrian democratic forces”.

According to statements of the American General Paul Salvo on March 8, Russia plans to deploy in Syria grouping of cruise missiles capable of strikes against Western Europe, which is a violation of the Treaty of 1987, which refers to the prohibition of the use of medium-range missiles.

General at the meeting of the Committee of Congress said: “We believe that the placement of Russian cruise missiles is contrary to the Treaty to reduce nuclear arms of average range”. He also added that “these missiles pose a threat to most of our facilities in Europe. We believe that the Russians have put them to threaten the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO)”.

In this context, he expressed and Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel (Signar Gabriel) who criticized the “new arms race” with Russia, after the release of the report on the placement of Russian missiles in the Kaliningrad region. Thus, it seems that the Syrian war cannot be stopped by the efforts of the countries that funded it.

Finally, the war in Syria is a model of a global war. A classic war, both the First and Second world war are gone forever. The warring parties no longer have any desire to act on several fronts simultaneously in different regions of the world.

This is confirmed by the senior scientific employee of Institute of Oriental studies Boris Dolgov: “the Third world can’t begin”. Therefore, conflicts in developing regions of the world will continue as long as the States concerned will receive dividends from participation in them. That is why the Syrian conflict will not be a world war, but will continue until the parties come to an acceptable to all solution.