“Let’s not forget that George Bush Jr., and Barack Obama made a naive attempt many different “reboots” relations with Russia, and look what happened in fact, and in another case”. Diplomat, analyst, security and Pro-rector of the Institute CEVRO Institute Tomas Pojar in an interview ParlamentníListy.cz assured that, in fact, the United States does not need Russia, and the current Kremlin regime has built its legitimacy on the resistance to the West, which represent the United States. Russia was at a disadvantage, so “neither of which equal partnership is out of the question.” Poyar also drew attention to the situation in the Czech Republic: “If we don’t start to treat their own defense with the utmost seriousness, we will end badly. And the blame will lie not on the tramp, and on ourselves.”
— Parlamentní listy: Mr. rector, Donald trump has been in power for a month. Is it possible to understand what steps he has taken at his own request, and some because of pressure from their environment? How much he can rely on closest associates in the White house? And will he be able to secure a dominant position in relation to Congress? And, perhaps, to “their” Republicans, who often does not “him”?
— Tomas Pojar: of Course, he can rely on his closest associates. Congress all will be more difficult, and I would not expect any dominant position. Trump will have to negotiate with Congress and compromise. The American President does not have unlimited power. This also applies to Donald trump.
— The Russian public rejoiced at the election of Donald trump, expecting improvements in the relationship. It was assumed that Donald trump wants to exchange with Putin in the spirit of “quid Pro quo” or even to involve him in a partnership against China. In the Czech Republic, some supporters of Milos Zeman claim that Zeman, who has developed a good relationship with China and Russia, while still supporting trump, will be the facilitator for the tripartite agreement during a sort of “concert of powers”. What do you think?
— I did not notice that American, Russian and Chinese presidents have been interested in any mediation in their relationships. That’s really really not worth it to fantasize about how the Czech President will be conducting a “concert of powers”. Does he conduct will not, no matter how good relations with the presidents support. Let’s not forget that this is possible “concert of powers” we, as a country of medium size in the middle of Europe, can pay. So many times before.
— Judging by the latest statements of the us President can say what he says about security on the military might of America, of the outrage that “America is still not winning”. But he did not say a word about Russia and Putin. Never heard the word “Russia” and in his address to the us Congress. And Hillary Clinton sure Putin would devote half his speech. Should we from this conclude that Trump Russia indifferent, or he’s just waiting, and maybe we are seeing a reaction to the recent scams that are associated with Russia?
— Donald trump is going to focus primarily on American domestic politics and the economy. In foreign policy, he would focus primarily China and Islamic terrorism. Actually, I expect trump to a greater extent than Obama, will cooperate with traditional American partners. Russia, however, it will be perceived as a regional power, armed with a large number of nuclear weapons. This kind of country Russia is. And that is how trump reacted to Russia in his speech.
On the other hand, some of the closest associates of the American President speak in the style which, rather, corresponds to the continuation of the tradition of the Obama administration. That is how to understand this duality?
— Let’s not forget that George W. Bush, and Barack Obama made a naive attempt many different “reboots” relations with Russia, and look how it ended and that, in another case. The United States does not need Russia in principle, but the current Kremlin regime has built its legitimacy on the resistance to the West, which represent the United States. Russia seeks to attract American attention and bites America heel, and sooner or later Americans will get tired of it. Russia just wants to sit with the Americans at the negotiating table, as happened in the Soviet Union. But then the economic and military forces of the two powers were more comparable. Today, America is stronger in economic terms, several times. In the military sphere, this difference is not as striking, but there is Russia behind. So what about any equal partnership cannot be considered.
— Trump has appealed to Congress to the American legislators who were asked to support his plan to reform health care, taxation, national defence and immigration policy. Speaking about foreign policy, he mentioned Islamism and financial requirements for members of NATO. What else in this speech and the reaction to it we should pay attention to?
— That trump does not change itself and as a whole constantly says the same thing. And he’s serious about what he says. In the sphere of trade we must do everything in order not started Euro-American trade war, which, of course, would be damaging to our country export-oriented. In the field of security, we must take seriously the words of trump that the United States will fulfill its obligations, if they are met and other allies. And if the United States already perform its obligations, the European countries on the whole — no. We Czechs are the Laggards. If we don’t start to treat their own defense with the utmost seriousness, we will end badly. And the blame will lie not on the tramp, and ourselves
— And what is the status of the Russian economy? Still, there are sanctions which limit the inflow of capital into the country, and there are fears that soon will have exhausted reserve funds. What with the price of oil, gas and commodity contracts? Russia moves to this decline in living standards that Putin in politics will not be kept?
— Barring anything unforeseen, Putin will long to lead Russia. Its economy will not collapse, but no Russian economic miracle, we can not wait. The Russian economy was and remains dependent on the price of oil and gas. In addition, the demographic problems of the Russian Federation will negatively affect the economic potential of the country. Thus, the Russian share in the world economy will stagnate or perhaps a little decrease. Today it is around two percent.
— If we return to the relations of the United States, Europe, Russia and China, what are the most probable variants of development of events? And, by the way, what will happen to European Union? Elections in France, the Netherlands, Germany… Many fear for the future of the European Union.
— Fears for the future of Europe is justified. But we have yet to learn who in the end of the year will be in power in major European countries, and what the next crisis will cover this year in Europe. Not necessarily some sort of disaster, but I’m not too optimistic. The Europeans have built too many castles in the air, so often we lack the much needed connection with reality.
— Since we are in such a conversation, one cannot avoid the topic of the economic future of the Czech Republic. In the short term JPMorgan disturbing reports about the exclusion of our country from the list of developed countries due to low wages. For the long term, it is said, we have neglected the development of new production technology and domestic capital, so we only produce in factories with foreign owners components, which are then exported. The added value is small, the country is not delayed. What to do?
— Do not tie up firms and entrepreneurs new rules, regulations and taxes and not to focus only on supporting large enterprises. We need to stimulate competition and creativity instead of harmful subsidies, and endless redistribution. Of course, we would limit the role of government in the economy (and the Czech Republic, and the European Union). But here, I see no reason for optimism. In our nature, rather to rely on the fact that the state will decide everything for us. And because of this, we condemn ourselves to the role of cheap, albeit reliable Assembly shop.
— How much do you believe that soon automation and robotics will lead to radical changes? They say that it will happen in the next 20 years, and skyrocketed unemployment among those who are “earning hands”. In addition, it is expected that interested staff reductions in the service sector. Would it be a disaster for our country, and the whole of Europe? What about Russia, China and the rest of Asia?
I don’t know what will happen in 20 years, but only hope that we will be on the side of winners, not losers. But it will, primarily, depend on us. However, large-scale automation and robotics, we can not avoid. Her age is already coming.