Doctrine trump and Ukraine

It was 40 days as President of the United States Donald trump took the position of head of the strongest state in the world. However, many people still are not clear what will be the US foreign policy and, in particular, how the new administration will translate into an electoral trump slogan “Make America mighty again”.

It is possible that clarity on this issue will make yesterday’s speech of the US President to both houses of Congress, which was scheduled for 9 p.m. Washington time. It seems that this time trump has chosen not accidentally, because this is Prime time on television. He obviously wants his voice was in the main evening TV news, and, accordingly, in the morning papers will have detailed analysis of his speech.

By tradition, all newly elected presidents deliver an address, not a message to the nation that says the head of state, at least after a year of tenure. The intrigue this time is that in both houses the Republicans have a majority and the head of administration is also a Republican.

The budget, illegal immigration, the future of Obamacare, foreign policy, media reports, are the main subjects of the speeches of trump.

On Monday at a meeting with governors trump has already announced its intention to conduct a “historic increase in defense spending” to restore the military might of the United States. However, he noted that the budget of the national security and protecting Americans. As reported in the White house, we are talking about increasing the Pentagon’s budget is 54 billion dollars, that is 10%, while reducing neubronner expenses, including a significant reduction in external assistance.

However, late on Monday evening in an interview on Fox trump did not rule out that the military budget will be increased additional 30 billion dollars. “We plan to spend on the army even more, we have no other choice… Many do think that 54 billion dollars. — a huge pile of money. In fact, the amount could be another $ 30 billion more,” he said. Thus, the American President responded to a rebuke of Senator John McCain, who believes the proposed increase of 54 billion dollars are insufficient to restore the combat capability of the armed forces of the United States.

“Day” turned to the experts asking them to tell us what should be expected from treatment trump both houses of Congress and what conclusions should be drawn from the intentions of the American President to increase defense spending.

“We need to understand where we can have direct dialogue”

Alexander Tsvetkov, americanist, Professor, Diplomatic Academy of the MFA of Ukraine:

— Trump associate themselves with the radical measures by which he wants to oppose the existing establishment. And this is to some extent at odds with the Republicans, and so the question arises, what will be the cooperation between the Executive and legislative branches of government, what are the achievements and breakthroughs can be achieved, whether there is identity of views of Republicans and Democrats on certain issues.

On the one hand, trump’s waiting for more targeted approaches to the doctrine and how it would be consistent with the political position of the Republican party.

But on the other hand, many people wonder how it will be implemented in practice trump the slogan “America above all”. It is therefore expected that in the course of this appeal by both chambers will hear of clearly articulated economic goals of the administration, its main priorities. Because he always promised to provide plans regarding illegal immigration, social and economy spheres, it is possible that his speech will be announced some basics of these plans.

As for the promise of the trump to increase the cost of 54 billion dollars on defense. On the one hand, this testifies to the intentions to strengthen the security of the country, and it will be a signal on the international stage. Obviously, the White house should expect more tough talk, with whom will diverge the interests of America.

And on the other hand, these 54 billion dollars do not fall further, and drawn from the social sphere. And it meets the pre-election promises of the President to cut the program and leave Obamacare mostly two social major government social assistance programs. And this, obviously, will be the divergence of the administration of the tramp with the Democratic party.

We see that from the administration trump sharper was the attitude to the Russian side, because of its departure from the arrangements of the Treaty on intermediate-range missiles. Now there is no progress in negotiations on reduction of strategic missiles. Therefore, the vocabulary of the trump more acute than it was in the race.

As for the findings for Ukraine. We have a certain time to adjust the strategy of relations with the United States regarding the settlement of the conflict on our territory. We need to understand where we can have direct dialogue and how to contribute to it. In addition, we have the capacity to reorient its economic and trade activities with the USA. Because we have a choice where to send our defence industry. If we are unable to extend their trade to the East, then we need alternatives, we need to find ways to establish a practical dialogue with the military-technical companies in the US. This, of course, can only be on the basis of political agreements. That is, we stand now before a step of a strategic nature — refocusing of all components of our economic development.

And in the external sphere in the U.S. is not so much a reappraisal of multilateral agreements as a transition to bilateral. Because politically we are dependent on USA, it needs to build its development so that was a big platform for cooperation with this country.

Judging from the steps of the administration, which is busy in the power sector, the reduction of military aid would be negligible. On the contrary, the US will pay attention to training and exercises. And if between the two countries will have closer political ties, they will be closer in other areas, in particular, military-technical areas, training of personnel of the armed forces.

“Investments in military advantage today is more favorable than in anything else”

Mykola KapitonenkoInstitute of socio-economic research:

— The initiative of the President of the trump to increase the defence budget — a fairly predictable choice in the traditional dilemma of “reasonable force”. Bet on the generals, the rhetoric about the “position of strength”, the way of perceiving threats — everything pointed to the fact that the new administration will give preference to “hard” not “soft” power. This choice is largely justified. The world is in a dangerous state of destabilization, and the demand for power solutions is extremely high. Investing in a military advantage today is more favorable than in anything else. Therefore, the decision to increase American defense spending 54 billion dollars — and this figure exceeds the total military spending of any country outside the top five — is justified. On the other hand, United States have long been out of reach for the top military ranking. Their power is so far beyond the capacity of other countries to talk seriously about the threats of a military nature to the national security of the United States is impossible. At the same time, sharpened threats of a plan: the loss of leadership, erosion of norms, values and regimes, for example, nuclear non-proliferation regime. It will be very difficult to contain the process of nuclear proliferation, increasing the costs of the defence budget. It is hoped that answers to the threat from the American President is. This is particularly important.

The Americans will say from a position of strength to solve their own global tasks. We do not benefit from the increase in their defense budget and closer to the supply of weapons to Ukraine will not.