The abolition of visas to the EU for Ukrainians: timing and risks

European officials during the Trialogue between the European Parliament, the EU Council and the European Commission on 28 February approved the abolition of visas for Ukraine. “Today” learned how important these talks are and when can we expect the immediate abolition of visas.

THE BOUNDARIES AND TIMING. That the European officials to discuss the Ukrainian question on the last day of winter, it became known in early February. Then the plan for the solution of this problem: supposed to vote for him in the committees of the European Parliament (EP) will be held on March 21. At the session of the EP our bezviz must go on 4 April, the last word in early may will have to tell the Council of the EU, and on 12 June according to plan — the opening of borders Schengen Ukrainians. These terms were confirmed by the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker.

As to the Trialogue, then, according to the expert Council for foreign trade, “the Ukrainian prism” Maryana kuzyo, he needs to agree a common position on Ukraine’s three key bodies of the Commonwealth: “If the position is positive, and the negotiations will end in one day, as in the case of Georgia (which occurred approx.ed), then we can assume that the unexpected moments on stage, the EU Council is not going to happen.” Recall that the Trialogue on Georgia was held on 14 December. After synchronisation, MEPs approved bezviz in just two months, and February 27, sounded a final decision.

It is worth noting that on Monday, the EU Council also approved the mechanism for suspending the visa-free regime, the absence of which was the main obstacle for Ukraine. Recall that thanks to him, the EU reserved the right to return visa for any country that becomes a source of migration threats. For example, the mechanism would work if, because of problems with documents will increase the level of refusals at the border of 50% or within the EU will increase the number of illegal immigrants from this country. Finally, the reason for the return visa may be and the failure of reforms. It is expected that signatures under the “cancellation mechanism” will appear already today, a second round of talks starts tomorrow.

RISKS. However, experts do not exclude the possibility of a negative scenario, even after successful tripartite negotiations. In particular in the future can prevent high-profile corruption scandals and the reverse key reforms in the country. “The EU will closely monitor the situation in a number of areas (post-monitoring), the regression of which can lead to cancellation of visa-free regime. The exact list of these areas is unknown, but it is now called the fight against corruption, organized crime, discrimination,” – says the analyst of the Institute of world politics Daria Gaidai. Sources “” in the AP noted that until recently, the main obstacle to Ukrainian bezveza remained France, which is on the threshold of presidential elections.

“This country informal is initiated by the binding of the Ukraine bezveza to the suspension mechanism. In light of recent events, I hope that all political moments that have values for them have already been removed,” adds Cusio. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko says that the French persist not because of Ukraine itself: “There’s a more complicated bunch — the French are more afraid of bezveza for Turkey. And their logic is this: if Ukraine receives bezviz, then it increases the chances for Turkey. But I will give you rest: from the German diplomatic sources that clear obstacles for our country now it is not.” The analyst adds that the high probability of a positive decision, says the statement of Ukrainian foreign Ministry — the foreign Ministry noted that Switzerland is ready to introduce visa-free regime for our citizens. In turn, the expert on international Affairs Andrew Buzarov notes that Switzerland is a Schengen country and to travel there without a visa Ukrainians will be able only after the decision of the EU Council.

Georgians are waiting for the return of the pioneers

Meanwhile, in Georgia, which recently approved a visa-free regime is expected to increase in passenger traffic in Europe. The largest increase in wait on the popular turnapravleniya in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Italy. Georgian tour operators report growth of some queries and add that to the euphoria and mass excitement in the country yet. “The Georgians, like Ukrainians, a bit bored, epic all bezveza, so the long-awaited decision from the EU people took a quietly — told us the travel agent from Tbilisi Tato Kublashvili. — We expect a significant increase of tourists, including independent, only a few weeks after bezviz really work. The pioneers will go check, tell the friends how it went, and only then, making sure the barriers, Georgians will often travel to the EU”. His colleague Inga Belova, in turn, said that things are not so simple: “we Have with Israel is also a visa-free regime. However, upon arrival half of the Georgians sent back. If that’s so, then what is there to rejoice?”.