At the end of January 2017 in the U.S. state of California began collecting signatures for its secession from the United States. According to the California initiative Yes, fans of this idea need to collect until July 25, 2017 585 407 signatures of registered voters of the state. Then, in November of 2018 will vote for the repeal of two provisions of the local Constitution, which recognize California an integral part of the United States and define the U.S. Constitution the Supreme law of the country. Then, on March 5, 2019, will have to be a referendum about the direct office of the United States. However, according to experts in international law, this initiative is unlikely to be implemented.
The leaders of the Yes initiative California say that a vote for independence is an expression of the desire to make California an independent country. But it really happened, the government of California and the United States will have a few years to discuss all the details.
“California is a unique place is home to 40 million souls who together constitute the sixth largest economy in the world. We have the people, resources and economy to do it as an independent country,” – say the leaders of the initiative.
In California began collecting signatures for withdrawal of the state from the United States. Photo: twitter.com/YesCalifornia
Why California decided to secede
The idea of withdrawal of California from the United States appeared in the information space after a victory on presidential election USA Republican Donald trump, although the leaders of the initiative said that the idea would have moved regardless of who was the occupant of the White House. So, according to representatives of the Yes California, its founders were inspired by the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014, which was held under the slogan of Yes Scotland (then for 55.3% of voters voted against Scottish independence – Ed.).
However, this idea to America is already historically formed the question, told “Today” in international political analyst Andrew Buzarov. According to the expert, in the US there is a constant struggle between the Federal and other bodies for the extension of the powers.
As noted by political analyst on international Affairs Anton kuchukhidze, a similar public initiative in the United States is not the first even in recent times. In 2012, the same California has collected a little more than four thousand signatures for secession from the United States. However, such initiatives were never implemented, since none of the branches of government in the US is not interested to lose any of the States.
“Trump is a secondary indirect cause, considering the fact that to the presidency of the trump in California was of such initiatives. There just is always a certain amount of people who talk about the economic power of California. Indeed, for the 2015-16 academic years, the GDP of California more than two trillion dollars,” – says Kuchukhidze.
However, with this opinion partly disagree an expert on international Affairs of the Ukrainian Institute of analysis and management policy Mr Will. According to him, the victory trump is still a role in the activation process played – leaders of the initiative managed to effectively use his rise to power and radical rhetoric about migrants and relations with Hispanic America. But at the same time, people who now support Calexit (so, by analogy with the British Brexit call the initiative regarding the release of California from the United States – Ed.) can thus simply protest against trump, but this does not mean that they are really ready to vote for secession of California from the United States, said Will.
And maybe it is money?
In General, Yes California state that many of the values the US is in conflict with the values of California. In their opinion, to remain part of the United States this state is no longer aO. However, in the foreground the leaders of the initiative on independent California and the economic aspect.
“As the sixth largest economy in the world, California is economically stronger than France, and its population more than in Poland. California is competing with countries, not only with the other 49 States,” – said in a statement Yes California.
According to representatives of initiative, while remaining part of the United States, the state will continue to subsidise other States to the detriment of themselves. So, according to estimates, which results in the newsletter Yes California, since 1995, the state annually loses about $ 16 billion, subsidizing others.
“Despite the fact that charity is part of our culture, if we consider that infrastructure California is falling apart, our public schools are among the worst in the entire country, we have the largest number of homeless people living without shelter and other basic necessities, poverty remains high, income inequality grows and we are forced to borrow money from the future to provide services in the present, now is not the time for charity” – say Yes to California.
As noted by Mr Will, this formula is already known on the British Brexit held in 2016. Then the British decided that they do not need to make huge payments to the EU budget. Note that for a British exit from the European Union spoke 51.9% of voters.
Today, the U.S. Constitution does not provide for secession of any state. The only minor distant legal mechanism by which there might be a way out is amending the Constitution, says Anton Kuchukhidze. Thus, article 5 of the US Constitution provides that amendments to the Constitution can be approved in two ways. First – if 2/3 of the house of representatives and 2/3 of the Senate votes for changes to the Constitution, for example, the bill on the possibility of States to secede from the United States. Then this project will go to the approval of the legislative bodies of all 50 States. In order for such a project came into force need the support of at least 38 States.
The second method 34 of the state convene the so-called Convention to discuss a certain bill was approved and sent back to the legislative bodies of all States to at least 38 of them approved it.
According to experts in international Affairs, the initiative regarding the release of California from the United States is unlikely to be implemented. Photo: twitter.com/YesCalifornia
Overall, at the moment to speak about the reality of exit from California USA early, says an expert on international Affairs Vladimir Will. Yet, in his opinion, on this topic in America speculate some political forces and activists. In addition, he said, to exclude such a possibility should not.
“We do not know in what direction and how to develop the domestic political situation in the United States. Can really happen that in 2019 there will be a referendum. But even if such a referendum is recognized as legitimate, the results will be in favor of the release of California from the United States, it is not necessarily mean that its results automatically California will become an independent state,” he said.
“California, obviously, wants more powers. But no one would violate the U.S. Constitution. If the case goes further, that will involve the armed forces because it is a violation of the Constitution,” says Andrew Buzarov.
That may let California secede from the USA?
According Yes California, with a total budget around the state in 2014 amounted to 156 billion dollars. Accordingly, California, as an independent country, will have 10% more money without any additional taxes and adjustments budget priorities. The fact that their taxes will remain in California means more funding in the areas of health, education and infrastructure, say supporters of the initiative.
In addition, representatives of California Yes note that in an independent country, the state will have its own government, currency, develop international relations. They are even talking about joining NATO and the countries of the Big Eight.
However, the USA is a Federal state where each state is endowed with greater rights and opportunitiesthan, for example, in the Russian Federation. In each of them, in addition to Federal legislation, is his, and all these systems are dictated solely by state governments. Each of them has many of the powers of sovereign States, says Mr wild. The only thing there is in each state is its army, currency, and rights to conduct foreign relations. Therefore, according to the expert, if California actually come from the US, it will get just a few attributes that are still assigned to the Federal government.
The key question in a situation if Calexit does take place, the reaction of the world on him and how the newly-born country to build up foreign relations, said Anton Kuchukhidze. According to the expert, the big question is where will be CA, if you still go this way, and lose it at the same time their economic power.