New restraint. Disappointed Russia trump

Trump something said about the Crimea, wary Tillerson talked with Laurel, and all were disappointed in Tillerson and trump’s only regret adviser Flynn: he was a good man, for what he suffered.

Journalists concerned with the question, does the phrase press Secretary trump Spicer “the United States expects that Russia will return Crimea to Ukraine” (as trump’s tweet that Obama “has allowed Russia to seize the Crimea”) turn in foreign policy trump. The answer is exactly as much as the turn meant the former phrase trump. He had something not talked about the Crimea sanctions — just from the opposite point of view. Both of those previous words nothing happened — at least the impossibility of the contrary statements, and the current should not be more than. And both of those weigh about the same.

As high expectations from trump and disappointment in the Russian leadership — different sides of the same deduction. Presentation about the sudden disappointment of Russia in the trump — a consequence of the uncritical consumption of foreign audiences own story about Russia, enchanted trump. How can you not rejoice in the success of your own agent when he says “Mama”, went to school, under the guise graduated from the University, now elected President. Proud. Not recognized first thing in the Russian Crimea, not lifted sanctions, has not fulfilled the dictates of the pike, he will be Shchuchye curse. Nothing was said fish, only the tail on the water splashed. From the day of the speech, press Secretary of the trump of Crimea and the resignation of Flynn’s mention of trump on Russian television repeatedly decreased and tend to zero. De mortuis nihil.

If desired not only a joy, but public disappointment in Moscow, trump can explain the insidious operation of the cover. Trump, who is dissatisfied in the Kremlin, in some respects more convenient partner for Russia. So you can not enter into the transaction, and do whatever they want, without being bound by friendship and not sticky chewing gum. In addition, the tramp, became a subject of criticism and frustration in Moscow, and he will be freer in their actions against Russia — including conciliation.

The current title of Putin’s favorite stopping both. Unusually alert and fruitless conversation Tillerson and Lavrov during the first meeting proof of that. John Kerry allowed himself to communicate with Lavrov friendlier and more openly in far worse times.

Line of defense is the trump, after the resignation of Flynn’s clear: the real Putin aide I did not, and Obama, who couldn’t stop him, and Hillary, who sent state secrets by mail. And also — as his assertive press conference given almost simultaneously with the meeting of Ministers — those who gives reporters details of his confidential conversations with foreign leaders. After the press discusses details of the calls with the presidents of Mexico and Australia, it is unlikely that dealing with Putin, he will be able to get to the level of practical cynicism, which is loved in Russia.

The main attack on trump is going in the Russian direction: “contact with the enemy” (as with a directness that is superior to Putin’s speech, writes the author of the NYT), and treason for lack of a better selected main weapon. Mutual changing the tone of the conversation between trump and Moscow on the cooler is unlikely to help him. The inevitable favourites for the US President meeting with Putin will still be the subject of espionage and erotic cartoons, even if they just keep quiet for ten minutes to the music of Tariverdiev, as Stirlitz with his wife. The rhetoric and the expulsion of Flynn — an attempt to align the landscape, rather than projections, to achieve the maximum range of the review prior to this meeting: the landscape of the desert, nothing is hidden, no one in the ambush.

Civilian casualties

If Flynn got on the phone with Ukrainian or even Chinese Ambassador, it would hardly fired, in the worst case just take note and let the chain of command.

In a sense, Flynn is a side casualty of war establishment against trump, hostage to the benefits that in the early days of his Ministry before the official inauguration has tried to bring America. The situation seems to have evolved like this. 20 days before the end of the term and alive when elected President Barack Obama imposed new sanctions, sent 35 diplomats and their associates, selected two objects of the Embassy of the property. To understand how to answer that in a period of transition, the Ambassador was instructed to find out the position of the future administration. Out calls or texts on the day of weaning houses and the expulsion of vacationers.

Unpleasant for Obama, the result failed to call Putin to the atrocities — from the practical side was beneficial to America: none of the American diplomats left for 48 hours from Moscow, the FBI has not declared a criminal organization, the American property in Russia was not injured. Flynn is not making any concessions, has been saved from many troubles very specific American citizens. But the fact of contacts with foreign diplomats, an occupation which until recently still indulged in even Russian officials, not to mention politicians and public figures — in the new world outweighs the first diplomatic success Flynn.

After trump failed to protect one of his closest associates, very few people will dare communicate with the Russian, speak positively about them, to take the initiative. The very concealment of communication with the Russian Ambassador was not the cause of the sullen, unsociable character of Flynn, but because by the end of the campaign, such contact has already been declared treason, regardless of their purpose.

The result is the US foreign policy towards Russia will be like in Russia. When subordinates fear, boss gotta do everything yourself. All any meaningful steps towards Russia will make himself President of the trump. But as it is the most controversial character of his own team, and his actions automatically fall into the category of controversial.

To occupy the void

In domestic American politics to speak well about Russia was always more dangerous than bad, the risks outweigh the acquisition. Russian optimism about trump based just on the fact that nobody was pulling for the language: all he talked about Russia during the election campaign, did not bring him any profit, only loss, so this is his real belief.

The second reason Russian sympathy for Trump common enemies. Trump and Putin are one and the same critics: Hillary Clinton, liberal or, on the contrary, the ultra-conservative senators, the big American media. Celebrating the victory of trump, in Moscow, rejoiced not so much the future of reciprocity, in which no one is sure how much the victory over the common enemy.

Finally, in the face of the tramp rejoiced in the return of shameless sincerity is the new language of political correctness and the superiority of the pragmatic approach to foreign policy over ideological. Democrats can hurt themselves and others for the sake of abstract values and lofty commitments and trump — trump is a businessman, cynic, master of trades and transactions.

However, the main problem of Russia’s relations with businessman-trump is that it is almost nothing to exchange or sell: the demand on her part exceeds supply. Russia needs the lifting of sanctions, the recognition of the Crimea, refused to interfere in the internal politics, the rejection of NATO expansion to the remaining outside the block of neighbors, the General recognition in the world of status and the related subjectivity: we are the artist, not the material.

But what she give in return? The Crimea Russia can not offer; the observance of the Minsk agreements now depends more on Ukraine, which they don’t like; nuclear weapons trump calls an example of the bad deal Obama; to move away from China and Iran for the sake of illusory trump here, too, is not going to. Remains joint the fight in Syria, where Russia is fighting to the limit, or mitigate some of the repressive laws and practices in the country, to which trump, compared to Democrats, indifferent: he pulled LGBT page from the website of the White house, the fate of the Russian gay propaganda. Does that cancel directly infringe upon US citizens “the law of Dima Yakovlev”. Of course, the improvement of relations between the two nuclear giants and more secure world — a valuable prize in itself. But the possibility of nuclear war now believe it less than before.

That is the most talkative, the least disciplined part of the Russian state has swung first towards the praise of trump, and then frustration and resentment, the first upward movement much more surprising downside. Downlink speed is simple: MPs and journalists race for a while trying to fill the empty field of the state anti-Americanism: this is the first I disappointed, first denounced, never lose vigilance.

Surprisingly, rather than the revival of anti-Americanism, which is limited by stable demand and, therefore, good for a modest but robust his political career. And that from him, even temporarily, so quickly managed to get rid of. The dogma asserts that authoritarian regimes are vital external enemy: hostile to America is need to control the besieged fortress — is explained to us, physiology of the Russian government. But as soon as America headed not even a friend, but an unconventional character who a couple of times allowed himself to get off the chair and sit down with harlots and publicans, it became clear that America’s long and unrequited loved. It seemed the whole inconspicuous Russian nature just waiting for the moment when America can again will love.

Import of authoritarianism

It is highly likely that trump would have acted braver and more generous in Russia, and the secondary would be immediately canceled, something more important was exchanged, fun to be communicated. But with accusations of treason and it really managed to keep within the strictly American consensus against Russia. The price of this recognition for the very liberal values from which to criticize trump high.

In post-liberal trunovskom the world, which began in the summer of last year, it is found that contact with foreigners or with foreign diplomats may mean, regardless of the outcome, betrayal and the end of his political career. Is what has always insisted authoritarian leaders, has become common place with the guardians of civil liberties.

Distrust of its own citizens, including functionaries, the idea that they are defenseless against the above insidious foreigners, and therefore it is better to protect them from contacts, is a trait of the most authoritarian countries. Even in Russia understand that it is not any official conversation with the Japanese is to sell Smoke. As a rule, no leads, although talk of 70 years. In America now want not to go to the counsel of the wicked in a literal religious sense of the word.

We have import substitution, there is substitution of imports. The political life of the West imported a number of practices, behaviour and logical chains that we thought characteristic of authoritarian regimes, to the same Russia. The destruction of the liberal consensus was expressed not only in the fact that the White house sits a President who is not considered part of this consensus, is not considered a liberal in their beliefs and way of thinking, but that, fighting with him, former members of the liberal consensus (Democratic and traditional Republican party, the American intelligentsia and nomenklatura, Hollywood stars and representatives of IT-industry) behave in an illiberal manner, as if imitating his opponent.

Critics of trump consider such a course of action against Trump and Russia justified and useful exceptions, however, it will come back to them where they do not expect — at least in those young democracies, who closely follow what is happening.

Or in Russia itself. Iranian reformers rightly reproached trump that, resuming a feud with Iran, he has caused irreparable damage to them, not religious conservatives. The same damage can cause the liberal critics trump their Russian supporters, that does not huddle on the edges of society as it may seem from afar, and is still represented in the country’s leadership, business, culture and, not being an opposition, are a powerful counter-elite. The calmer, more benevolent attitude of the Russian state from the American, the easier life is, the more likely it is that they have implemented their idea of a more open, tolerant, involved in the rest of the world Russia.

Hostile outside world will strengthen the position of extreme isolationists in the country, neighbors will push to the narrower concept of freedom as freedom from Russia, not from themselves, and the world public opinion the false idea that their prosperity and security will be achieved on the ruins of the Kremlin after Russia will drive over the fence in a totalitarian hell. While all previous experience shows that they come together with freedom in Russia, preferably achieved without annexations and indemnities.

New restraint, a new opportunity

Psychologically the new restraint trump unpleasant for the Russian leadership. Still, the time when it was possible not to resist America, was a pleasant break, an unexpected gift, a reason to cool an overheated propaganda machine.

However, the unfriendly trump is its useful for Russian policy side. Not doubt in the victory of Hillary Clinton, the American establishment was ready after a diplomatic punishment of Russia and reaching a certain bottom to the attempts to normalization. Putin, too confident in the victory of Hillary, he hurried to the bottom of to a quicker start to emerge. But after the unexpected victory trump the American establishment is not ready to receive this normalization from the hands of the hated President in the bargain with Putin.

Now it looks like trump’s hate for his relationship with Russia. In fact, it is not the cause but the means of deterrence. Conviction in treason — the first in convenience tucked way to defeat his own power, where you can see historical accident. The same way as it was during the election campaign, accusations of racism, sexism and other attempts to discredit the opponent.

America is not ready for friendship with Russia but, in principle, been ready to align relations — and not on the very bottom edge, as well as the joint capture of altitudes cooperation. Just the American political class is not willing to take it all out of the hands of trump: “You messed up, and I corrected”.

Cold, the increased psychological distance between trump and Russia will return to normalize, which will be the result of a personal whim of the controversial President, who must fiercely protest. It creates a gap, which will be able to work with other members of the American policies and nomenclature, and as a result, the area on which to build the new discharge will be more of a shadow of a President trump.