Is America an enemy of Germany? After the election Donald trump, the German government and the media exactly what you think. After the Second world war, Germany did not pursue aggressively their own interest — this was not necessary. America cared about them. But those days are gone. President trump holds the biggest changes in the world order after the fall of the Berlin wall.
During the cold war, the interests of Germany and America were identical. If Russia overran Western Europe, the Soviet threat would become very real for the United States — why America defended Germany and even contributed to the unification of the state, which she helped to divide after the war. And after the end of the cold war, Germany became subject to the common threat from radical Islam.
America also cared about the economic interests of Germany. Both countries wanted to have a free and stable global trade and open oceans and trade routes.
Meanwhile in Germany there was good reason to not particularly stand out. Left by the Nazi destruction stored in the memory of living people. If Germany wanted to use your weight, the other Nations quickly this opposed.
At that time the German policy was simple — America will take care of the basic interests of Germany, while Berlin will focus on creating an economic, not a political force.
Of course, there were differences. Sometimes Germany was promoting his own agenda. The Balkans are a good example — Germany has recognized the independence of Croatia from Yugoslavia, despite significant opposition. But when America emerged, Germany was glad to convey to Washington the ability to perform hard work.
But now the times have changed. In an increasingly dangerous and chaotic world Germany is forced to aggressively protect their interests — for the first time after the Second world war.
This threat comes not from a few impromptu reviews of the new President and his ideology as a whole. Mr. trump promised to pursue a revolutionary foreign policy. Instead of trying to pursue a long-term American interests, he intends to maximize short-term profits. It is more interested in the balance of assets and liabilities, not the balance of power.
This has caused an almost hysterical reaction in Germany. “The inauguration of Donald trump proclaims the coming of a new world order — noted in the publication Spiegel Online. — Trump is the end of the world as we know it”.
“Can Merkel today to preserve the unity of Europe?— this question was asked in this article. — Can it become a significant opponent of the trump in upcoming conflicts over trade regulation, international agreements, and liberal legal and economic order that was so important to the United States in the past six decades? (Spiegel Online, 20 January). One of the most popular and influential magazines in Europe sees America as the enemy — and asks whether there is enough aggressive leader of Germany.
In an interview that trump gave in 1990, he called Germany and Japan are the main enemies — because, according to him, the two countries “are making billions by tricking us.”
“The staff of Merkel are convinced that his views have not changed,” reads the article from Spiegel Online. The leaders of Germany, indeed, believe that America is for them undertake.
Attack on Germany
That brings Germany to such despair? Externally, the Affairs of this nation are great. The economy is growing faster than expected in 2016. Instead of having to borrow money, the government, in fact, paying all debts. The influence of this nation is growing rapidly. However, Germany is vulnerable. Its political order is falling apart. Unexpectedly successful party, the Alternative for Germany (ADH) and the Left party (former Communists from East Germany) are gaining popularity and threaten to destabilize the entire political system of the country. Both of them are considered to be too extremist in order to work with the mainstream parties. Terrorism and immigration — are themselves serious threats — contribute to the growth of the supporters of these parties.
Less attention is given to economic threats to Germany. Germany is the most export-dependent country among the major economies. Export accounts for almost half of its industrial production, whereas in America this figure is only 1/5. The decline in exports can have very serious and rapid consequences.
In this respect, the views of Mr. trump directly threaten Germany. In his opinion, free trade is when other Nations use America. He wants to conduct a complete reassessment of global trade policy. More than other countries from its revaluation will lose Germany. Given the current political problems of Germany, the economic turmoil may cause such a political crisis, which was not yet in the postwar history of this country. According to the survey, the level of popularity as ADH, and the Communists today is from 10% to 15%, but how high he can fly in the event of an economic collapse? In this case, together they can get the most votes — and this will mean that no coalition government can’t be formed without their participation. Associated with the export crisis in Germany, the danger is much more serious than a slight increase in the number of unemployed — it can destroy the political system of this country.
“Our well-being is under threat”
In his interview to the newspaper Bild and the the Times, published January 15, Mr. trump threatened to impose a 35 percent tariff against cars BMW. America is the main focus of German exports. For the growth of its economy, Germany needs to increase exports. Most export markets, Germany is in a difficult situation, while America is one of the few areas with growth potential. Any factor that can slow this growth represents a danger for Germany. However, Mr. trump intends to go much further it is going to significantly reduce the supply of German goods in America.
Starting the game with the tariffs, Mr. trump threatens to destroy the German economy.
Germany is concerned that Mr. trump may use the trade Act of 1974 (1974 Trade Act) for the imposition of tariffs of up to 15% in respect of German exports to 150 days — without consultation with Congress.
Much of the analysis of President trump is correct. The export miracle of Germany is mainly connected with the Euro. The Euro is a de facto subsidy for German goods. The weak economy in southern Europe contribute to the weakness of the Euro and its low cost. A cheaper Euro means cheaper goods from Germany. If Germany were not part of the Eurozone, the BMW would have cost more. The intention of Mr. trump to tax them entirely justified.
In any case, threatened the fundamental interests of Germany. Germany needs to convince America to abandon the introduction of tariffs, and also to find a way to make free trade with Germany was responsible short-term interests of Mr. trump. In other words, Germany needs to have influence and leverage — this means a return to politics from a position of strength and aggressive pursuit of their own interests.
“Our welfare is in danger, and we are talking about the most serious risks in the last 60 years,” said Markus Kerber (Markus Kerber), Director General of the Federal Association of German industry. If Mr. trump will be guided by their rhetoric about free trade, “the German model of economic prosperity will collapse,” he added.
However, the threat posed by the policy of President trump, goes far beyond the only direct trade.
Trump against the European Union
Berlin’s dependence on exports makes the unity of Europe a core interest of Germany. Seven of the ten main destinations of exports Germany are in the European Union. If the EU will collapse or will cease the existence of the Euro, then Germany will start economic depression.
Unfortunately for Berlin, the President trump wants it. The European Union, he said on 15 January in an interview is “essentially a means for Germany.” He praised the UK’s decision about leaving the EU and added: “I believe that others will do the same thing.”
“Officials in Brussels, — said the author of the article in Spiegel Online, — concerned that one of the goals of foreign policy trump to divide the European Union — on issues such as, for example, environmental protection and energy policy, but especially on the issue of relations with Russia.”
For 60 years, America welcomed a unification of Europe. And now she has a President who is ideologically opposed to it.
Emphasized the warm attitude of Mr. trump to Britain may be due to a desire to harm the European Union. British Prime Minister Theresa may was the first world leader to visit trump at the White house. His administration is offering bargain Britain after Breccia, and is markedly different from the position of his predecessor, who said that in the case of the withdrawal of Britain from the EU it will put her “at the end of the queue”.
Such transactions between Britain and America would undermine Europe’s position in any negotiations over Broksita. Britain in this case will be to participate in the negotiations, having on its side the strongest economy in the world. More importantly, any such transaction is, in fact, would represent the invitation of the President of trump to any other nation that could follow the example of Britain. Output from Europe is not a leap in the dark, like he says. Leave Europe — we will welcome you with open arms and offer you great deals. No wonder officials in Brussels are concerned.
Isolationism, Mr. trump is an additional — though less immediate — a threat to European unity. For many years, American leadership has shielded the EU from the acute problems that today threaten to tear the continent apart. Although American leadership was not able to protect Europe from such problems as the Euro crisis, Europe, however, had the opportunity to ask questions such As “what do we do with Russia? How do we counter terrorism?” These questions existed, however, the answers mattered not much; America has set the direction for the West, and Europe just decided to get her on Board or not. America did all the hard work of persuading other Nations to accept American leadership or enticing them to do so.
Before the election, Mr. trump answers Europe began to mean something. But how can you make a General response inside the unit with a set of such diverse views? On the one hand there is Estonia, where all young people are conscripted for military service, and one out of 20 adults of working age either serving in the army or volunteered for the national guard. Fear of Russia brought the nation to the Israeli model in terms of the level of participation of its citizens in the army. But in the same block are countries such as Austria and Italy, which I think meaningless sanctions against Russia.
Early America provided the leadership necessary to keep this kind of group in the list on one page. And now someone else needs to replace this leadership. Someone must now fight against the attempts of Mr. trump to destroy the European Union. And if nobody will do, the Euro will not, and the prosperity of the European Union and Germany will be forgotten.
Pressure from Russia
Meanwhile, Germany may also face the danger from Russia. Mr. trump promises a revolution in relations with Moscow. Almost every American President, starting with 1990-ies, started with the promise to establish closer relations with Russia, but they were then disappointed. This time, however, Russia seems to be interested in, to play alone, at least for some time. Thus, the unique failure of Mr. trump from the American long-term interests can lead to the fact that he would patiently to be Russian expansion, which is opposed by all previous presidents of the United States.
Now Europe needs to stand alone against this threat.
For Germany the situation can become even worse. Jochen Bittner (Jochen Bittner), editor of the German weekly Die Zeit, wrote in the New York Times that the election of Mr. trump leaves Russian President Vladimir Putin without “Scarecrow”. If the American President ceases to be a source of all evil in the world, then who is Putin to blame and who he will attack? “Guess who is best suited to the role of the new, well, scared is feminine?” — asks Bittner himself says: “Angela Merkel” (1 January).
“The German Chancellor is a flawless target. — In Germany, General elections will be held in the fall, and as currently sympathetic to Moscow’s policies are on the rise, it may in the course of their struggle for the fourth time to present himself as the only leader willing to confront a newly assertive Russia.”
During the reign of the Obama administration Merkel did many things in order to preserve the unity of Europe on the issue of sanctions against Russia. If trump will cancel the sanctions, while Germany does not, then Merkel will be the most important opponent of Russia in the world and the object, which will be sent to all the power of Putin’s wrath and his geopolitical genius. It is to be unusual.
Russia, with U.S. support will be a powerful country. “If trump will deliver on their promises, in the opinion of the Chancellor, Europe will face great danger” — it was underlined in the already cited article from Spiegel Online. Elmar Brok (Elmar Brok), member of the foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, warned that Putin may use the opportunity to capture one of the Baltic States. “The message trump in relation to NATO could lead to a situation in which Putin will say to themselves: “let’s try!”
Paul Millar (Paul D. Millar), associate Professor of international security at the national defense University (National Defense University) in his article published in Foreign Policy magazine, wrote: “Putin now has a more favorable international environment since the end of the cold war to continue Russian expansion (16 November).
Russia can take advantage of favorable attitude trump in order to divide Europe and conquer it — because the tramp does the same thing. Faced with such a tense situation, aggressive Germany would be forced to act directly against both of these powers — and at the same time to preserve the unity of Europe.
“Tough prosecution of own interests”
Analysts worldwide believe that Europe will face similar changes. “Pexit, which in itself is a shock, together with the presidency, trump will force the EU to abandon childish things and to ask themselves difficult questions — said John Lloyd (John Lloyd) in an article published by Reuters. He probably ends is always a difficult transition” (January 13).
Yes, this transition period will be difficult, but over the next few months the world will witness the growing in Germany and Europe.
Thus, Germany is facing growing pressure from all sides and could no longer rely on the United States — and even sees America as the enemy. What is the result? This nation forced to defend itself. If America will conduct certain narrow policy of “America first”, then Germany has no choice but to respond with his side of the policy of “Germany first.”
For 70 years, Germany didn’t need to do that. According to John Friedman (George Friedman) in his book “Hot point” (Flashpoint), after the Second world war, Germany and Japan “tried to become economic giants without having to be powerful militarily. Both of these countries have less international impact than could have.”
“The intention of Germany is to conduct economic policy without political and, of course, without military consequences, emphasizes Friedman. — The Germans are going to be the dominant force in Europe without imposing its will on anyone. Their intention is to use only one element of national power — economic, and use it without the hard pursuit of their own interests… This is an understandable impulse. However, it is not clear whether it is practical.”
Of course, there were leaders who wanted to see Germany more powerful. However, Freedman offers a good description of the worldview of such a Chancellor like Angela Merkel.
According to Friedman, Germany now has “more hard to pursue their interests” because of the Euro crisis. She needs to dominate the South of Europe, and if it does not, it will face a very serious political and economic crisis. Today, the paradigm shift in the worldview of America is the source of another large pressure.
The last 70 years Europe has lived as if inside the ball, while pressure from the global policy accepted by the United States. As a result of the withdrawal of America there is another reality — a reality in which, as noted, the first theorist in the field of international relations Thucydides, “the strong do what they can and the weak what should experience”. Germany will be forced to become strong in a number of directions.
It must be strong in its response to Russia. It should show sample forces in order to consolidate Europe around itself. It will have to Woo France and Italy, to request or to force them to agree to the extension of the sanctions and it will have to do the same in relation to the Baltic States that they hold the appropriate line in the convergence of.
The middle East is already impossible to leave America — Europe understands this. Germany should give more weight to its foreign policy — otherwise the flow of migrants and the attacks will destroy its political system. Germany needs to maintain and increase their international trade. It can mean the struggle for influence with the United States, and also answer force with force in order to prevent the imposition of tariffs, Mr. trump.
All this probably will mean the aggressive pursuit of self-interest within Europe. This will mean the need to hold around at least a core group of States, while America seeks to divide.
Here he wrote the most overlooked Trumpet magazine, brad McDonald (Brad Macdonald) after the terrorist attack occurred in Germany in December last year: “the Berliners, the German people and even Europeans as a whole there is a greater need to make a choice between who they want to be and what they should be. They probably want to be progressive, open-minded and tolerant, but the message from Berlin and from all other attacks suggests that they have become more cynical, more vindictive and more than ready for the confrontation. You can be sure that this trend will affect all of us.”
Germans and Europeans are faced with the same choice in foreign policy. Ends that period of luxury they could afford for decades, when they could abandon the rigid pursuit of their own interests and when this role was taking on America. If in the next years they will not aggressively pursue their own interests, they can expect a disaster. They don’t want that to happen. We will soon see a new Germany, a Germany that is willing to push other States.
The return to its history
Europe is a peaceful continent. History shows that this is not normal. This world existed only due to the fact that America took over the necessary functions, and therefore the European nation did not need to be strong and to protect their interests. But that time has passed and Europe is returning to the historical foundations of his character.
President trump insists on an isolationist policy, which is directed against the EU, however, if you don’t count trade, it is not directly anti-German. Perhaps he doesn’t understand what pressure he was having in Germany. The Germans can believe that Mr. trump is the enemy. He opposed Germany in many important respects, but in other areas he fully supports it. Germany increases military spending? Great! More German soldiers in the middle East? Great! Army Of The European Union? It’s about time to defend themselves!
America forcing Germany to return to a policy from a position of strength, and at the same time she leaves from many parts of the world. This creates excellent conditions for Germany once again appeared on the world stage as a major power.
This variant for many years and the magazine predicted the Trumpet. The predictions are fast becoming reality. In January 1963, Herbert Armstrong (Herbert W. Armstrong), editor of Plain Truth magazine, predecessor of the Trumpet magazine, wrote: “a United Europe — a remarkable revival of the Holy Roman Empire is a giant world power equal to Russia and the United States — perhaps it is even stronger. It will hold the balance of power between East and West.”
Is not difficult to understand how the President pursued a trump foreign policy would lead to the emergence of new forces in Europe — forces, which, in accordance with the prophecy of Armstrong, not just to sit in the shade of America, but will retain its own basis of power will increase their own resources and to actively pursue its own foreign policy.
However, the rise of new European powers, in fact, is “the new world order”, as highlighted in Spiegel Online. A world few have seen one living today people the world with arrogant power in Europe prepared to challenge how America and Russia.