The Russian threat to the West

In the USA Michael Flynn (Michael Flynn) who was working in the administration of trump as a presidential adviser on national security, resigned. The reason is that the contacts that he had with the Russian leadership after the November elections, “risk the security of the country”. As you may remember, earlier American intelligence claimed that Russia interfered in the election campaign that preceded presidential elections last November in the United States, and even influenced elections by “cyber attacks”. And recently, French intelligence has expressed concern that Russia will intervene in the upcoming presidential elections in France and will manipulate them.

What happens with Russia?

Note that Russia categorically denies the above allegations. Therefore, these statements that come from both the United States and from France, we can not consider “fact”. However, the attentive reader that at least a little watching of international relations knows that the Russian economy is going through difficult times. When low oil prices add the Crimea, military intervention in Ukraine and Syria, economic activity in the country is largely weakened. Moreover, the search of the EU alternatives to Russian gas, shale gas technology in the United States and the maintenance of the sanctions imposed by the Western world against Russia, do not offer hope that these problems may soon be over. From this point of view, I think, “Russia’s attempts to intervene in political developments in the Western world” will not seem unexpected.

The current state of the Russian economy

Let’s briefly recall, what is the situation in the Russian economy today. After two years of recession, the Russian economy again points to growth in 2017. It is expected that in 2017 it will be about 1%. While in 2015 there was a decrease of 2.8%, and in 2016 — 0.2%. During the time of sanctions, the Russian economy was seriously damaged. Since the end of 2014, the ruble fell against the dollar by 60%. Along with the effect of such a serious fall, a second headache of the Russian economy was inflation, which at the end of 2015 reached 15%. Meanwhile, there was a strong outflow of capital from the country. Over the past three years, for the most part in 2014, the outflow of foreign capital amounted to 225 billion dollars.

In 2013, when oil prices exceeded 100 dollars, exports reached $ 500 billion per year. In 2016, the revenue from exports was reduced to 280 billion dollars. Don’t forget that Russia provides about 50% of their income through the sale of oil and gas,

After the arrival of the trump

That is why the new world order that will arise with the arrival of trump, it is extremely important to “Putin’s Russia”. The Russian economy, which had once risen to two trillion dollars, now back to the level of 2008 ($1.2 trillion). If in the next few years oil prices will remain at current levels, then either Russia will be forced to make serious budget cuts (especially in military spending, and salaries of the working population, primarily civil servants), or the economic crisis that currently seems “manageable”, yet more aggravated.

Turkish-Russian relations

We are one of the important trade partners of Russia. The trade turnover between the us — about $ 20 billion. In trade with Russia we have a large deficit due to energy imports. But when you consider the projects of Turkish construction companies in Russia and the contribution of Russian tourists, the difference is to some extent kompensiruet. The policy that Russia will pursue in the coming period in relation to the Western world, primarily the United States important for Russia and for us. If the Russian case, will be to develop optimistic, Turkey can also benefit from this process. But the echoes of the problems Russia may face when “negative” scenario, we, too, will be clearly felt.