Why half of the Land will lose their jobs after 30 years and how to handle it

In the sixth class, I found a library book under the authorship of a Jerry MacMahon. Can’t Google, I tried. She’s probably not so good to forever remain in the network space. In the annotation says, this is the result of collaboration between writer and computer. In reality it turned out that this incompetent paraphrase a great novel by Alistair Maclean “When strikes eight bells”. Then I exhaled and thought, well, it means that robots have yet not reached. So come 2017, when nearly got.

As usual, the correspondent of “Today” has lined books and intelligent articles for a long time surfed online and talked with experts to write the article to which the robot would have taken several seconds. For some reason, I’m afraid that the evil Terminator will come to shoot you with an assault rifle, when in reality worry due to the fact that he will select your work.


Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk warn that artificial intelligence is not a toy and leads to terrible social consequences. The famous physicist believes that the increasing level of automation will completely deprive working people of the middle class and will lead to significant changes. “What is happening at the moment, automation of factories already leads to a reduction in the number of jobs and the abandonment of traditional production. The rise of artificial intelligence will only increase this pace and will seriously affect the working middle class. Demand will remain the only people of those professions that will need a creative approach to problem solving, and Supervisory control.”

According to the company’s Citibank and Oxford University, 47% of jobs in the U.S. — at risk of automation. For UK this figure is 35%. For the countries of the Organization for economic cooperation and development (60% of world GDP) — 57%. Worst of all China: there automatiseret 77% of jobs.

Three of the ten largest employers in the world (Foxconn, Walmart and the U.S. Department of defense) is actively trying to replace employees with robots.

Hawking believes that automation will increase inequality and the Internet will allow small groups of people to incredible profits without hiring employees. By the way, that is why, according to physics, won the trump and happened Brexit: machines are replacing people, which leads to increased right-wing sentiment.

This was written and Martin Ford in his book eloquently titled “the Robots are coming”: “we should Not forget about the obvious risk of capture of political power by the financial elite”. And explained the obvious problem: rich people by lobbying have often made decisions that the public was not to their liking. And as they zoom out in a “bubble, insulated from everything”, there is a “real risk that these people will cease to support investment in public goods and infrastructure, on which depends the life of others.”

Similar report was made by the Professor of computational engineering, Director of the Institute of information technologies Moshe Vardi. “We are approaching the time when machines surpass humans in almost any case, he said. — I believe that society needs to confront this problem before it will stand upright. If machines can do almost everything that able people that will do?” According to forecasts Vardy, 30 years from now robots will be able to do for almost everything that people can do. And this leads to the fact that more than 50% of people will become unemployed.

The author of one of the strongest Russian chess programs, expert on methods of machine learning and founder of the portal 22century.ru Sergei Markov emphasizes that the most vulnerable in today’s profession — the operators of call centers, vendors, Resellers and warehouse workers. In the longer term, robots will be able to replace the drivers yet also prevents them from… the poor state of their roads.

Adorable robots looking at us from movie screens.


(according to Martin Ford, “the Robots are coming”)

  • “Stagnation of wages”

In the US, workers earn, adjusted for inflation, less than in 1973. Although their productivity grew.

  • “Bear market for workers and fierce bull market for the capitalists”

The Boley law: the share of national income that accrues to capital, and share of, accrue to labor, equal. Meanwhile, the development of technology leads to the fact that the work is done by machines. No need to pay workers, and the share of labor in national income is declining.

  • “The decline in the share of the economically active population”

People who are able to support themselves (those who are working or going to work), also becomes smaller.

  • “Growing inequality”

95% of all income growth over 2009-2012 in the United States was in the hands of 1% of the richest.

  • “Reduced income and unemployment among people with higher education”

It has always been that the diploma will help you to get more money. Now it turns out that it is not.

  • “The polarization and part-time employment”

Due to the automation of labour has gone part of the work for the middle class.

  • “Fewer new jobs, a longer period of the economy without the creation of jobs and the rapid growth of long-term unemployment”

Increases the load on the social sector.


1. Jet machines

Without memory, respectively — with no experience. Is IBM’s Deep Blue (beat Kasparov in the late 90s) or AlphaGo Google who won the world champion. At every turn, a new full calculation.

2. Limited memory

They’re a little bit remember. So work self-driving cars: observe speed and direction of other vehicles. But it’s not a library experience where the car will be to study just the “operational data”.

3. Theory of mind

They do not yet exist, but many technoparty want to create something similar. To be honest, this is a simulator of us, something like a high-functioning autistic: he is not aware of what is happening just reacts to it. As a “philosophical zombie” — without thoughts and inner world.

4. Self-awareness

Despite all the assurances of neurobiology that awareness itself no matter from the point of view of the success of the individual, we are all the same people. But because we put ego to the highest degree. It’s not just a simulator, but a full-fledged living being with his counterparts thoughts and feelings.

Evolution of robots: in the end they can become as we are.


  • What is a “robot”?

Isaac Asimov thought robots will be like us, with head, hands and feet. Modern understanding of the term is much wider. This mechanical hand with the “eyes” on the Kinect, and transmission of a new Lamborghini, and the network is trained to look for similar images, and voice assistant for your smartphone.

  • How machines can learn?

Different. Thanks to a tool called “genetic programming”, for example. You enter the source data is added to the Darwinian algorithm (evolutionary), randomly introduced mutations. There is, Bayes ‘ theorem (English scientist of the EIGHTEENTH century), allowing on the basis of calculations to predict the probability of an event.

  • What is big data?

It’s massive amounts of information online about everything. We are with you to handle them is difficult, but the machine, armed with learning algorithms, it is quite good. For example, a few years ago in the US a man complained to the trading network of the Target that his imperfect daughter received in the mail coupons for diapers, baby furniture and clothing for mothers. It turned out that the culprit “the forecasting system of pregnancy”, which recognized the girl’s future mother in her purchases. Can you imagine? The robot has learned about pregnancy of the daughter before her father! When working with big data was that it is not necessary a deep judgment in their analysis, it is sufcient to consider a number of General laws. Also any targeted advertising — she’s shoveling millions of search requests of millions of users to show the desired link. But it’s marketing. Working with big data allows us to cure disease, to manage the economy and to do many useful things.

  • What can you do robots?

A lot. There are robotic inventors (many patents owned machines, in particular your new toothbrush). Robots that learn, rediscovering the laws of physics. By the way, much faster than we are. Robots that move things. Robots that clean house. And even robots that are between a financial war on wall street. All of this you can find out by using the robot, which provides Google’s search algorithm.

  • What is artificial intelligence?

This self-learning robots that already exist. However, they are not so smart, didn’t gain self-awareness and not trying to take over the world.

Not yet attained self-realization. While not trying to take over the world.


At this point, all we had to understand that ahead of us is darkness and darkness. Robots will take our jobs, kicked out of the house, learn to drink and swear. In a bad light, even “the Matrix” doesn’t seem a dystopia, but on the contrary, a very good solution. Judge for yourself: good cars don’t just run the planet on their own, feeding people nutrient, and spend the energy to show us cartoons. In addition, you can create your own virtual worlds, to explore the microcosm, to surf the Universe (due to signals from the machines that will do it in reality) and live a truly long and adventurous life. Well, what actually you are lying in conductive gel. Now, too, there is a possibility that we are living in a simulation (this was the “Today” wrote earlier).

Besides, agent Smith looks a lot nicer than kinetoscope liquid Terminator. And the fantasy world is much funnier degradation and obesity in WALL-E. on the other hand, all this will be possible only under condition of occurrence samosoznania machines that for some reason, be nice to us.

Do not forget that while we deal with other people who want to reduce their costs through the use of technological tools. Skynet and the Matrix have not yet evolved to that level to somehow threaten humanity. And ways to make the minority, even if protected by automatic safety systems, to do what the majority wants, mankind has invented a great many, for example, the same revolution. Or terrorist attacks, here it depends on who will take the case. Plus the whole process of automation has an unpleasant property: it can be hacked, reprogrammed and damage. Probably, the neural network will be trained to resist to hacker attacks, but the ability to think creatively people is present.

There are other problems. While we had self-replicating computer systems, research remains in the hands of institutions, not corporations. Latest only to implement the results of cool developments created inside, including government agencies. Although, of course, every self-respecting company has got its own secret laboratory.

Plus, because we are all human, I think the owners of large companies will remain faithful to the humanism. They show it: mark Zuckerberg, bill gates, many other themilitary simply give their own money for various scientific projects. Probably realizing that with seven billion people, better friends.

In addition, focusing on the development of unemployment because of robots, we forget about those areas where automation and the development of artificial intelligence really helps. For example, biotechnology, which will allow you to edit the children in the Bud (designer children), elimination of diseases, strengthening of the human body, immortality. Fiction, Yes? And how do you cyborgization and digital immortality, that is, resettlement in the virtual space. Another great fiction? Yes, but more recently, and gene editing technique Crispr/cas seemed to be something in vivisection wellnissage of Dr. Moreau. And all this give us the car — long before the really scary samosoznanija artificial intelligence.

There remain other possibilities. Finally humanity will be free time to colonize the Universe. And symbiosis with the machine will help speed up this process. Moreover, our body is not very suited for space travel. So why not move on hard drive? Again fantastic? Yes, but the first humanity created artificial intelligence capable of self-awareness, will show the architecture on which is built the mind. Then we overwrite the network can be a matter of a few years.
And finally, as stressed Sergei Markov, an important condition for innovation is the high cost of unskilled labour. “While wages are low, the introduction of new, more productive technology isn’t effective,” he says. So it’s up to our latitude, the new economy will roll for a very long time, giving time to prepare.

“What do you need (to live in the economy of the robots. — Ed.) it is generally understood: first, the normal benefits or unconditional income, or, alternatively, — public works; second, large-scale social program for the retraining of specialists”, — says Markov.

Before humanity is waiting for a complete reboot of the economy. A lot depends on what point in the end will choose a race: the Commonwealth with machines or modern luddism.