Win Donald trump has strengthened the trends of international politics, which for Russians has long been obvious and to guide the behavior of Russian in the past. One of these trends — is de-globalization. It promotes the very forces that have accelerated globalization, but then he wanted to distance himself from her when they had to realize that others benefit more than themselves.
The shift of power from Europe to Asia will continue, albeit at a slower pace than in recent decades. In the foreseeable future, China will act on an equal footing with the United States, Europe and the EU, by contrast, will somehow be okay. I hope that it will not fail and will lead to a more slender, healthy and stable EU, namely in the form of a Common market, Schengen excluding or excluding one or two of the Eurozone.
The rivalry between the United States and China in the future will continue to define the relations between these two powers. The confrontation between Russia and the West will continue, but will gradually come to naught. This confrontation has its cause in a kind of “revisionist” resistance in Moscow and other new players to play by the rules that the West has established after his apparent victory in the 90-ies. The confrontation, which has further been exacerbated by the “revisionist” Western attempts to win back the positions that it is rapidly lost from the beginning of the second half of the zero years.
Disassembly of the revisionists and revanchists
The confrontation between “revisionists” and “revanchists” additionally complicate the already rather alarming, if not dangerous picture. Moving Hillary Clinton into the White house only even more worsened the situation.
Because she is the epitome of liberal interventionists and neoconservative elites, all of which patrapali defeat and wanted revenge, or at least the opportunity to prove that they were right. Even if Clinton was more or less clear player and politician predictable value, “her” America deterred the balance of power.
Donald trump, of course, less predictable. He said many things that even in the much less politically correct Russia just shrugged their shoulders. But some elements of his government’s policy, probably can be traced: there will be more protectionism, and therefore will increase tensions with China; accelerated partial historic US withdrawal from Europe, regardless of a particular administration; estimated at one trillion dollars the program infrastructure will help revitalize the U.S. economy and “make America great again”. But the US will no longer act as leader of the liberal global economic order.
Russia and the United States are now more likely to avoid a collision. At that time, as they are on many points remain everyone at the opinion, these countries have to stop moving in the direction of the new military-political confrontation in Europe. Option would be to freeze the number of troops at current levels, the removal of certain outposts, or an agreement that all military aircraft flying with transponders included.
Thus it would be possible not to confront each other as before, and, for example, to cooperate to defeat ISIL (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) in Syria and Iraq and to solve the problem through political means. Also had a chance to solve Ukraine until the country lost their power.
Donald Trapm not interested in, to add fuel to the fire of this conflict. Russia and the US could even step forward and encourage other partners to work together to strengthen international strategic stability, which includes the role of nuclear weapons in the world, which has become more dangerous.
Europe must take care of myself
But of course, nobody knows whether all is well. No one knows what could happen, and whether the new American President constructive steps in this direction. Trump operates on a divided country and given the American elite, which he mostly downright physically hates.
What can Europe do? It is necessary to first understand that she needs to take care of herself and heal the wounds that she received because of their own mistakes. She must first understand the obvious: the world is not developing in the direction of postmodernism. At a time when Europe clings to the liberal utopia, the European elite and the European Union condemn his nation to further mistakes and in the end can even lead to isolation.
The EU cannot solve their problems, positioning himself as an opponent of Russia. Because by doing so he challenges a much stronger partner partner with a more powerful strategic vision and endurance. Meanwhile Russia, judging by the behavior of the ruling elite and most of the population, clearly is no longer a minor European nation, and became the Eurasian and global power.
And yet, Russia continues to be of great interest to maintain and develop their cultural and economic ties with Europe. For this reason, Russia is looking towards East, beginning together with China and other Asian partners to develop a concept of Eurasian partnership — a joint space for development, cooperation and security from Shanghai (or Singapore, or Tokyo) to Lisbon.
Needless to say, that it is not directed against the United States. At least not against the United States Donald trump if the new President will be able and allow myself to follow the best impulses and instincts. As his own, and America.
Sergei Karaganov is Dean of the faculty of world economy and world politics HSE. He is the honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on foreign and defense policy in Moscow.