Kaliningrad detonator

Despite the declared before the Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises “West-2017”, which should take place in the autumn on the territory of Belarus, the intrigue around them grows every day.

And recent public explanations of the commander-in-chief of the Belarusian Armed forces Lukashenko and has not brought full clarity about these war games. Supposedly this is a common joint with the Russian army strategic exercises, which are held alternately in each of the participating countries. However, what is obvious to everyone, this time they will be still in an unusual environment, the atmosphere that emerged after the Crimean blitzkrieg, the war in Eastern Ukraine and a major crisis between Minsk and Moscow. His references to the Ukrainian list is appropriate when I remember the many “gas” rounds of fighting between Kiev and the Kremlin, which played a prominent role in the present confrontation, which led to the destruction of the European security system.

In anticipation of the Munich

About it, or rather its ruins, politicians, experts from many countries of the world should soon be discussed at the Munich conference on security policy. It was there on 10 February 2007, Putin in his speech marked the resumption of a new cold war. So this speech took many in the West.

According to some, in the current Munich security conference, the United States can be presented to the new Secretary or maybe the Vice President. After officially announced the upcoming meeting trump with NATO allies at the end of may “in one of the European capitals”, Munich will not see it. However, from the current head of the White house and then expect all sorts of surprises that he has for the first weeks of his presidency, surprised the world.

So the unpredictability trump does not exclude absolutely its appearance on this forum where the main topic will be the fight against international terrorism. As you know, the theme of the tramp, arriving at the White house, called his main presidential goal. It is not excluded that due attention will be paid to regional security issues. In particular, the Baltic-black sea space.

In any case, the February forum in Munich aims to become a kind of thermometer, which will show the real level of the security status of a sick Europe. Presumably, the professional composition of the participants who will be in Munich (and there are already applications wanting full house) will allow you to do this.

The growing threat of

Meanwhile, the observed in the Baltic sea region show the activity of the armed forces of various countries increasingly leads many to thoughts of coming danger. This condition becomes even more confident with each passing day own dynamics. Now, presumably, diminished the skepticism and arrogance with a kind of Imperial touch, about the decisions taken at the Warsaw summit of NATO. As you know, according to the adopted at the Warsaw summit of NATO, more recently, military units of the countries-members of the Alliance began to arrive in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to strengthen their defense capability of the Russian threat, which was recorded on this summit. Called these actions a strengthening of the Eastern flank of NATO. Particularly designed to impress the seriousness of the evolving situation in the region the emergence of an American soldier in Poland with very serious weapons and systems. Do not remain without attention and other activities on the Eastern flank of NATO.

Thus, the Armed forces of Latvia reported on the passage of the Russian ship a few miles from the territorial waters of the Republic.

“In the Latvian exclusive economic zone of ten nautical miles from the territorial waters detected the presence of ships of class “Bira”, — stated in the published message. Territorial waters are usually limited to 12 nautical miles from the shore. Distance between Bank of Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland, about 90 miles.

Patrol NATO aircraft on 25 January noticed over the Baltic sea near the external borders of the territorial waters of Latvia two fighters of the Russian armed forces su-24 and An-26, said in a statement.

Minsk-Riga: secret Protocol

In this regard, it would be worth to emphasize that in a week in Minsk hosted a two-day working meeting of representatives of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Latvian Republic on the implementation of Agreements between Belarus and Latvia on additional measures of trust and security.

According to official information, during the meeting the sides assessed the implementation of the provisions of the Agreement in 2016, and considered proposals aimed at improving the effectiveness of additional measures of confidence and security, and agreed on the issues of bilateral cooperation in the field of arms control in 2017. According to the results of the working meeting signed the Protocol on which the media word. Maybe because then they all covered the event called the Big conversation, where loud was denied information about the intention of Minsk to withdraw from the CSTO and some other integration structures with Russia.

The trajectory of the strategic thoughts of the Kremlin

And then it would be appropriate to remind, at a meeting of the joint Collegium of the defense ministries of Belarus and Russia adopted a joint action plan for 2016-2018, which is aimed at the formation of the military organization of the “Union state”.

Like all assured, integral part of a Regional military grouping of troops (forces) of the Republic of Belarus &the Russian Federation with the Russian troops in the Kaliningrad enclave. Some time there appeared the glorious “Iskander” — a real threat to the Baltic countries-members of NATO. They say that their appearance in Kaliningrad deprived Belarus of strategic importance for Moscow in opposition to the activity of NATO on its Eastern flank. But, as some strategists argue that today’s virtual “Union state” may tomorrow be transformed into reality.

For example, the theme of a Russian air base in Belarus may change the theme of the missile base with the “Iskander”. Why would the Kremlin strategy is not to diversify its Iskanderovich a threat to NATO, adding to Kaliningrad and even pads for missiles on the territory of Belarus? Among other things, the emergence of Russian “Iskander” systems in Armenia are not against Azerbaijan’s meant, but much further South… from Here we will face NATO.

In such path the strategic thoughts of the Kremlin to the growing tension in the Baltic flank of NATO, which is difficult to challenge the Russian Baltic sea enclave surrounded by NATO States, not neighboring Belarus, could become the detonator for the explosive situation prevailing in the region. And this situation clearly does not ease that is observed today in the relations between Minsk and Vilnius due to the construction of the Belarusian NPP on the Lithuanian border.

This object is in Vilnius and Brussels perceive a geopolitical instrument of Moscow’s pressure. Similar intentions are there to see in the behavior of Minsk. So bordering Kaliningrad and Belarus are making Lithuania a special, disturbing tone of the perception of such neighbours.

And yet of the real existence of this “state” few would be optimistic to say. It was not observed in Minsk during the recent “great conversation”, where among the Ministers could not see the Minister of defence. No “Union state”, there is no then its military organization, the formation of which so carefully was once said by General Shoigu. By the way, as noted by some foreign observers, recently disappeared from the media space his Belarusian colleague. But not long ago, the frequency of occurrence, coverage in media was akin to the role spoksman the official Minsk. Therefore, the current is now a lull in the media field, that of defense Minister, some Deputy, is perceived ambiguously. Especially on the background of different expectations, talk of the forthcoming strategic exercises “West-2017” with the participation of Russian troops.

It is obvious that the current teachings in the Kremlin give greater than before importance. As to the first appearance of the President of the trump in Europe.