Expensive food: how food prices will change by the summer

This January has broken a long-standing food traditions in Ukraine: usually after the new year price increase the food a little cheaper, but at the beginning of this year, the majority of socially significant products continued to grow, writes UBR.

“Just pork and lard fell by 1%. Prices for poultry meat and chicken eggs remained at the same level”, — said the Executive Director of the NGO “Economic discussion club” Oleg Pendzin.

According to him, the leader of the price increase was the potato, which added in January of 16% (+84 cents per pound). In the capital wholesale this product can be purchased at of 4.2 – 4.5 UAH/kg In retail product release a minimum of 6 UAH/kg.

Other vegetables borsch set rose in price twice slower than potatoes, on average, 8 – 9% for the month (adding 30 to 40 cents per pound). These data lead to the Association of suppliers of retail chains. Carrots on the wholesale markets now sell 3.2 to 3.8 UAH/kg, cabbage 3 – 4 UAH/kg. In the same price range offered onions and beets.

“However, the vegetables in January 2017 are approximately two times less than a year ago,” notes Pendzin.

Vegetables will go up until the new harvest

In turn, the expert of agrarian business Denis Marchuk said the sharp rise in prices of garlic, which last year cost 60 UAH/kg, now — 90 UAH/kg.

According to the head of the Association of retailers of Ukraine Alexey Doroshenko, vegetables and will continue to add in the price about 5% every month until spring when the market will be early cabbage, carrots and beets. To move prices up are two factors: storage cost, which depends on energy prices, and reduce inventory of quality products.

Among the fastest growing in the price of goods, the experts also called dairy products. So, according to the Association of milk producers, the procurement price of raw materials in January compared to January 2016 and increased by almost 50%. Per month raw milk of extra-class rose by 3.9% to 9.43 UAH/liter. And the cheapest product is the milk of the first grade — has risen from 7% to 8.82 UAH per liter. Consequently, raised prices, and processors. For the month of yogurt added to the price of 10% — up to UAH per liter of 25.09.

Sour cream and cheese rose by 6% (for 4 UAH), to 42-43 UAH/liter. the Price of yoghurt in January fluctuated constantly and reached its peak on January 27 — 49 UAH per liter, and then dropped to UAH 46,62.

“In addition to the shortage of raw materials and expensive energy, the cost of the food product is laid, and exchange rate risks that affect the cost of imported ingredients,” says Marchuk.

Price records set, and grain products. According to Doroshenko, for Jan the bread has risen more than 4% or 40 – 50 cents per loaf.

Bread Ukrainians eat more than normal

“It’s a lot, considering that the bread, along with potatoes and pasta has a very large place in the structure of consumption”, — said Pendzin. According to his calculations, the average Ukrainian consumes 110 – 112 kg of bread per year at the rate of up to 100 kg, potatoes — 140 kg per year while the norm of rational consumption of 124 kg meat But we eat less than it should be: a total of 51.4 kg instead of 80 kg/year.

By the summer the price of bread reach of 12.60 UAH per loaf, and white — 13 UAH, experts predict.

Will also continue to rise beefprices, which in January grew by almost UAH 5 per kilo, and in some areas, and 15 UAH. The reason is simple — reduced the number of cattle. Now the cost of beef has already reached UAH 250-260/kg other cuts of beef sell at 110-200 UAH/kg.

“Will rise in price and sugaras it increases its exports,” added Pendzin.

In January this product added 3% to 17 UAH/kg. according to the National Association of sugar producers “Ukrtsukor” sugar exports from Ukraine in the 2016/2017 marketing year (MY, September-August) will be 500 thousand tons, which is 4.4 times more than the year before.

Sugar exports pulls prices up

“There are a range of factors pushing prices up, and the almost complete absence of the restraining influence of the state. This and the increased cost of transportation due to the cost of fuel and the increased costs associated with staff wages due to the increase minimum deductions from salaries,” adds Pendzin.

As a result, as noted by Doroshenko planned by the government in budget 2017 inflation of 8% is exceeded already at the end of the first quarter.

To keep the prices of almost all commodities is their ample supply because of the shortage of food in Ukraine. “So eventually the price will depend on effective demand within the country,” — said Marchuk.