The situation looks like Vladimir Putin became interested in global agenda and have simply ceased to pay attention to things like disputes with Minsk. Hence the scandalous tone of the press conference Lukashenko Belarusian President wants to shout to the Russian, that he finally paid attention to the APB status of the relationship.
Scandalous a press-conference of Alexander Lukashenko at the end of last weeks filled the pages of the Russian media. But what might seem sudden flash of anger, was, perhaps, the most anticipated event in the downward spiral of the Belarusian-Russian relations.
The current dispute between Minsk and Moscow multifaceted as never before. He, like a funnel, every month of delays in new business relations from oil and gas to the border and grocery differences. This crisis feeds on itself: the negativity in the information field and mutual irritation began to generate new, optional scandals like the arrest of Pro-Russian journalists, demarche with Lukashenka’s refusal to go to the summit of the CSTO and the Eurasian economic Union in St. Petersburg and the decisions of Minsk to extradite the Russian-Israeli blogger Alexander Lapshin in Azerbaijan.
The last — the decision of the FSB to establish on the border with Belarus border zone. This step in his first interpretation means de facto introduction of passport control, where it almost never was.
Catharsis President
Do not speak of the FSB about his decision for a couple of days before the press conference Lukashenko, it may not become so emotional, but still would be devastating, because boiling. In the speech of the Belarusian President was more emotional than policy: he threw the irritation, removed the accumulated stress.
At the beginning of a record, seven and a half hours of talks with the press and the people of Lukashenko avoided even the word “Russia”. Something like Vladimir Putin publicly calls the name of Alexei Navalny. But when I made a direct question about the relations with Moscow, Lukashenko spoke for almost an hour and a half, starting with “a situation has reached the point that I have little right to hide”. And come back to this subject later, even when the questions were about something else. Full list of claims to Russia, stated at the press conference, would take several pages. Try tezisno.
Alexander Lukashenko has accused Moscow of violating international agreements on oil, gas, and common border. He said he has already filed a lawsuit against Russia over oil and gas dispute, withdrew the representatives of Belarus from the customs authorities of the EAEU. Speaking about the protracted signing of the Customs code of the Eurasian Union, Lukashenko said that not to touch the document until the decision of the oil and gas dispute. It sounded obvious, but rude sounding from the mouth of the ally reproach that Russia does not perceive Belarus as an independent state.
Lukashenka instructed the interior Minister to see whether you can open a criminal case on the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert and threatened him with the Minsk prison, so that it was untempting to ban Belarusian products. Again sounded the refusal to place the Russian air base, although over the past year, Moscow has this topic not been publicly raised.
“We were flying on one wing. Where he had arrived — you know,” the software said Lukashenko. Was and stories about the details of the closed negotiations at the highest level, with poignant details, like the phrases: “Volodya, don’t spoil the evening” and “I spoke about it to Putin when he was a Democrat”.
Not to say that Lukashenko has completely lost control of himself. Between dozens of outrageous statements, which often get into the media headlines, it was no less soothing. The decision of the FSB on strengthening the border, the Belarusian President promised not to reciprocate, not to cause the Russians problems. Classic in our countries the formula “the Tsar good, boyars bad” the blame for the deterioration of relations Lukashenko laid not Putin and his entourage: “Indeed, there are different forces. Unfortunately, they are different today and the country’s leadership. And that is very bad, some things are at odds with the views and decisions of the President”.
Lukashenko is an experienced negotiator, and this rhetorical move is understandable. It allows Putin, if he wants to reconcile and save face, blamed the existing problems on subordinates. So the parties have received the last 15-20 years: when the number of disputes at the level of ministries and state-owned corporations passed the quality, it interfered with the President and in the name of the centuries-old brotherhood solve all amicably.
Now this is not happening. And here we come to another reason demonstrative anger Lukashenko: he wants to return to the negotiating table continues to Putin instead of all those unfriendly interlocutors with whom Minsk has to deal with Moscow in recent months.
Yes, between the two presidents has a personal grudge and psychological incompatibility. But in recent years, Putin has remained almost the only centre of power within the Russian elite, which potentially could bring relations between the two countries in a positive direction.
Elusive Golden mean
Traditionally in the Russian elite there were three approach to relations with Belarus: two extreme and centrist.
The first extreme is the approach of the pragmatists-marketeers from the government; his spokesmen to call Dmitry Medvedev, Arkady Dvorkovich, to them — Alexey Kudrin and Anatoly Chubais. In the expert area with such positions are the commentators from the Higher school of Economics. These people are quite alien to the Imperial agenda, the idea of gathering the post-Soviet lands, they were not moved favorite argument Lukashenko — “we’re together in the trenches fought.” Unit pragmatists, revered by some Russian intellectuals, the Belarusian authorities have always been most unpleasant negotiator. Officials and experts from this cohort is more active than others promoted the idea that Minsk, in General, and parasite enough to feed him.
The second extreme approach — Imperial-nationalist. It is popular in the power unit, and of the commentators — among the adherents of the “Russian world”, the extreme Slavophiles and Eurasians. Their agenda is simple: the independence of the North-West region is, of course, funny, but sooner or later they had to shut down. While Lukashenko is on the path of integration, it’s ours, but only flirts with the West — it is necessary to remind, who is the younger brother. The Imperial unit of the Russian elite of the Belarusian President in the shower too, did not like, knowing that their picture of the world he awaits the high post of Governor. But at least in friendly times, worked the traditional rhetoric of Lukashenka about indestructible Slavic brotherhood.
Vladimir Putin at the domestic box often plays the role of a centrist arbiter between a conservative force and pragmatic-liberal towers of the Kremlin. The same median approach Putin has always been against Minsk, Lukashenko staged.
On the one hand, integratori the fervor of the Kremlin has almost always been tolerated, because Putin is not obsessed with Eurasian ideas. On the other twirled a private government gas-oil valves Putin has periodically hyped, because I was not deaf to the incantations about Slavic brotherhood.
The conflict between Minsk and Moscow happened when the Kremlin line wavered in one of the extremes: from Putin offers Belarus to join Russia six regions in 2004 to roll to the side of the pragmatists during the formal presidency of Dmitry Medvedev. It is no coincidence that for 2009-2010 was previous a protracted crisis in relations: dairy, sugar, oil and informational war.
Today Lukashenka is that the Golden mean began to fall out of the equation. Extreme and still marginal approaches have now become independent and isometric hemispheres of Russian foreign policy, at least in the Belarusian direction. The situation looks like Vladimir Putin became interested in global agenda and have simply ceased to pay attention to things like disputes with Minsk. Their decision is delegated to the security forces-the traditionalist and pragmatist-technocrats. Hence the clumsy pressure on Minsk at the location of the airbase a month before the re-election of Lukashenko in 2015, and the inclusion of the full extent of the energy lever: when to extract from Minsk’s debt for gas Moscow, not hiding this motivation, cuts oil supplies.
This phenomenon is mentioned in passing, and Lukashenko himself, when told of the protracted talks with Putin on gas for the sensational press conference: “I Went to him until two in the morning and we discussed all the issues as native people. And the last question: he takes his paper for a long time trying to explain something. I said, “Wait, are you saying that you are not able to go this way, as you the table I sent you?” “Yes, I have the motivation, the Ministers came””.
Lukashenko wants Putin, as before, at the crucial moment pushed Ministers from the conflict and decided it himself, rather than shifting the problem onto the shoulders of subordinates. Hence the scandalous tone of the press conference- Belarusian President wants to shout to the Russian, that he finally paid attention to the APB status of the relationship.
Marriage sunset
As the quarrel between two spouses, one sometimes need to practicalise. Minsk has a lot of steam. Now the pendulum of the conflict, at least in the public sphere should start to move slowly from a nervous peak in a more peaceful and routine.
Oil and gas dispute, if it will not be resolved at the meeting of Putin and Lukashenka on 9 February, will go to the court of the Eurasian Union. Belarusian debt of half a billion dollars, meanwhile, will accumulate and wait for it policy at least partially written off or find mechanisms of compensation.
Sergey Dankvert is unlikely to be a defendant in a criminal case, such injections are too risky, it still goes on the Federal official of a high rank. But he will not cease periodically to deploy the Belarusian beef milk at the border. Blogger Lapshin is likely to be issued in Azerbaijan, where then transferred to one of the countries of his citizenship. Specialists of the border guards will sit down and discuss how now a new way to live with a common border. Visa-free entry for Europeans and Americans to Belarus will begin work on February 12, and Moscow will understand that the flow of Western migrants began to attack Smolensk and Bryansk region.
But all this conflict will not go away. Returning to the marriage analogy — in relations of Russia and Belarus way of life finally killed the romance, with which it all began 20 years ago. Difficult emotional Union of two partners, with its authoritarian temper, and a tendency to mutual blackmail, marriage is bogus. My husband had other interests, his wife was defiantly flirting with the neighbor. First, to annoy and to play with jealousy, then with a longer-term calculation: suddenly sooner or later will have to seek new living space.
Are we heading towards a formal divorce? In the foreseeable future — no, it’s not Slavic. The current elite in Minsk, in Moscow, are more likely to hold multiple formats of bilateral integration: the Union state, CSTO, EAEC, CIS — a kind of “stamp in the passport”. The more so because of their existence still depend on entire sectors of the Belarusian economy and the image of an attractive centre of attraction for neighbors who want to support Russia.
But it doesn’t change the fact that the usual format of relations at an impasse. Stuffing all the new cones, the parties recognize that the integration is so different and at the same time authoritarian countries can’t be both equitable, and financially burdensome. Any attempts to convert its multi-year investment in the expansion of influence on Minsk will encounter resistance. As Belarus used to be independent, and its permanent President is not able to share with someone of their power. And attempts of Minsk to return to Moscow to the old model of feeding, which in Belarus is called “oil in exchange for kisses”, also become infertile. The Kremlin this scheme is more uninteresting.
Even if the present quarrel with great effort manage to pull on the brakes, it should go into future history books, at least the Belarusian. After the Declaration of independence and its institutional arrangement: the appearance of his bureaucracy, currency, and army, this conflict will become for Belarus one of the most important stages in its spin-off from the former metropolis.
