The cost of gasoline in January was influenced by three factors: the weakening of the hryvnia, increase in excise duty on fuel and the rising oil price on the world market. The reasons for the stabilization of fuel prices will not be, experts believe. However, the price increase will not be as large as in January. What will happen to the price of gasoline in February, understood “Segodnia”.
Three reasons for the rise in price of gasoline
Ukraine 80% of the oil imports. Because of this the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel depend on global oil prices, the stability of the hryvnia and taxes. The cost of petroleum products in Europe, the 2016 has grown and continues to grow. At the same time, since December there has been a noticeable weakening of the hryvnia against the dollar and the Euro. Because of this, traders who sell fuel at UAH, and buying in the currency, had to purchase fuel either in smaller quantities or at a loss. Also from January 1, the government merged the retail and base the excise tax on fuel, which impacted prices. Until the middle of January, traders were left gasoline stocks at the old prices, because of this, the cost of petroleum products for the first time, resist. After the resumption of purchases from mid-January to the cost of gasoline fell, and the new excise, and the consequences of the weakening of the hryvnia.
“If not for the fall of the hryvnia, the price increase after January 15 would not be. Another influential factor is the introduction of the retail excise tax in the total excise tax. This led to the fact that unscrupulous traders cannot evade the tax and are forced to raise prices. But the excise tax will only affect the refilling of the lower price range. If nothing will happen to the hryvnia exchange rate, the price of gasoline stabiliziruemost”, – said the Deputy Director of the scientific-technical center “Psyche” Gennady Ryabtsev.
Operators are not interested in raising the price of gasoline, especially because the winter is not a period for increasing fuel costs, said the expert nefterynka Leonid Kosyanchuk.
“Market operators – in the least interested in raising prices, because December, January and February is the “off season” consumption is falling, many consumers have switched to alternative fuels or in the illegal sector, where prices are cheaper. Raising the price of 30-50 cents per liter has a negative impact on sales, but when the retail chain sells fewer gallons than you need to recoup and profit – it is closed. The issue is acute on two sides: the price prohibitive for consumers, and reduce its limit, since the network will at a loss,” he said.
See also: In Ukraine, the prices of cars: prices in 2017
What will happen to gasoline prices in February
Since the national currency is unstable, the cost of gasoline will rise in February. The appreciation of the dollar to the hryvnia will provoke a rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel by 60-70 cents per liter, said Gennady Ryabtsev. If the oil price will rise by 1%, the cost of gasoline will grow by 10 kopecks per liter. The rising price of gasoline not to stop until mid-February due to the instability of the world oil market, the President of the Association “Unification of operators of petroleum products market of Ukraine” Dmytro Kulyk.
“Since the beginning of February retail fuel prices rose, and most likely, this trend will last another one to two weeks. If before the cost of gasoline is primarily influenced by the devaluation of the hryvnia, but now the unstable situation on the world oil markets. In connection with the “dead season”, when the fuel consumption is quite low, a significant price hike is expected, most likely, the price increase will be in the range of up to 20 cents,” – said the expert.
Spring will increase the prices of diesel fuel and by the summer they will be equal with the cost of gasoline, said Leonid Kosianchuk: “By the end of summer we will come to that diesel and gasoline price are on the same level because of the increase in excise duty in April.”
For example, if you refill the car with gasoline A-95 tank capacity 48 litres on 31 December 2016 cost 1214 UAH, 31 Jan 2017 it went up to 1238 UAH, and according to the forecast of experts in February will cost UAH 1253.
Gasoline will significantly rise in price in the second half of the year, predicts the co-chair of the energy strategies Foundation Dmytro Marunych. The reason for the price hike will raise prices of petroleum products in Europe and the instability of the hryvnia.
“Three factors: rising oil prices, falling national currency and the increase in excise duty will adversely affect the cost of gasoline further. Large network of gas stations the prices. Probably during the month will continue to rise in price gasoline and diesel fuel, but not as fast as in January, all the more reason to strengthen the hryvnia is not visible. In the second half of the year prices will grow even more and can reach a nasty level 30 hryvnia per liter of A-95 and diesel fuel is a bit cheaper”, – said Marunych.