As the meeting with Merkel will affect future negotiations Poroshenko with trump

Negotiations of Petro Poroshenko with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin took place on the background of the “surprises” of the new American Administration on the issue of sanctions against Russia and the upcoming meeting Donald trump, Vladimir Putin. Increasingly from Washington sounded notes about possible future warming of relations between Russia and the United States by concluding a “big deal” – big deal, the terms of which may include the Ukrainian question. The pour oil on the fire and the impending presidential elections in France and parliamentary in Germany. In particular, because the toughest position in the “Normandy format” of negotiations with Russia in the Donbass has always taken Angela Merkel. Now its rating has significantly deteriorated, and equal to the support of the chief opponent, former European Parliament President, Martin Schulz. His Social democratic party was more Pro-Russian and advocated for a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia. But if States begin this process first, the EU would be very difficult to keep the sanctions unilaterally. Yet, according to experts, the chances of winning the Merkel high. Besides, after BREXIT, the role of Britain as an independent player, so Ukraine should do everything to enlist the support of London in negotiations with the US and Russia.

To hold a meeting Poroshenko with Merkel in Berlin scheduled in the last year. Therefore, the visit called “work” – as it is titrated press service of the Chancellor and administration.

But it just so happened that, first, according to the Ukrainian President, it was the 10 anniversary meeting. Secondly, the negotiations of Petro Poroshenko with German Chancellor Angela Merkel took place after Saturday’s telephone conversation Merkel and U.S. President Donald trump. And, more interestingly, trump spoke with Merkel to a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yesterday in Russian press with reference to data of the journalist of Politico Susana Glasser and expert of the Atlantic Council Fabrice pottier came the news that trump has already prepared a decree on the partial lifting of sanctions against the Kremlin. And though the Advisor trump Killian Conway confirmed that the issue of lifting the sanctions “is under consideration,” the press service of the White House and the Kremlin denied that the presidents during the 40 minute conversation (to compare Putin with trump spoke from the power for 10 minutes) discussed the issue of sanctions.

But Swedish economist, senior researcher at the Atlantic Council Anders Aslund sure that the leaders of the USA and Russia after the mandatory issues for the Middle East and North Korea sanctions still discussed. “Also touched upon the main aspects of the crisis in Ukraine. Agreed to establish a partnership on these and other directions”, – quotes a press-service of the Kremlin, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council. – This suggests that sanctions may be weakened. But it will become clear later. “It emphasized the importance of establishing mutually beneficial trade-economic ties between business circles of the two countries, which could further stimulate the progressive and sustainable development of bilateral relations.” This clearly shows that they discussed the lifting or easing of us sanctions against Russia.”

The sanctions regime was also discussed during the visit Poroshenko in Berlin for talks with Merkel and representatives of the German establishment. After all, if the question of easing sanctions pressure on the Kremlin is the American agenda, the EU will be very difficult to preserve the unity alone. It is especially interesting during the visit of Ukrainian delegation to Berlin to hear the position of the new foreign Minister of Germany Sigmar Gabriel, who has repeatedly stated about the possibility of lifting or easing of sanctions against the Kremlin. But after a couple of days after taking his new position, Gabriel said that the lifting of sanctions against Russia should be linked to progress in the peace process in Eastern Ukraine.

Before negotiations at the international level the situation in the Donbas escalates. The result is a night and morning shelling our positions, 7 Ukrainian servicemen were killed, 17 were injured. “Wounded and they died as a result of artillery fire from artillery, artillery systems, which were installed by Russian militants in residential areas of Donetsk and Yasinovataya in order that the Ukrainian military had no opportunity to open fire. It’s barbaric methods,” said Petro Poroshenko at a press conference before the talks with Merkel.

The Chancellor, in turn, said that the ceasefire does not actually exist, that again killed the soldiers. “I have to say that the situation on the demarcation line of concern. According to the United Nations in this conflict up to this point killed about 10 thousand people, and we must do everything on the basis of the Minsk agreements to implement them, although it’s not easy,” said Angela Merkel.

According to the Vice-speaker and representative of Ukraine in the humanitarian sub-group of the Trilateral contact group Irina Gerashchenko, it is a “FSB-shnaya tactics to raise rates in bid to scare the world with the escalation of the conflict, offensive, saber-rattling, threatening force.”

The implementation of the Minsk agreements, but rather their failure to comply with the Kremlin became one of the Central themes of the negotiations Poroshenko Merkel. The leaders said that the alternative to the Minsk agreements and there is no need to find a way to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

“The implementation of the Minsk agreements was blocked by Russia and a puppet “heads of republics” because Russia is not going to go so far from the Donbass (but the goal is not the conquest of the mining region and the whole Ukraine), and because the Kremlin is openly expected that the new administration in the United States may be more loyal. And yet the Kremlin expects that 2017 will bring more loyal to the government in several European countries. That is why September is actually blocked, the question of liberation of hostages. For Moscow it is a trump card in bidding for the lifting of sanctions”, – wrote in his Facebook Vice-speaker and the representative of Ukraine.

According to experts and analysts expect significant progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements, at least until the parliamentary elections in Germany and the presidential in France is not necessary. The Kremlin really put this question on pause in the hope that the authorities in two key countries of the EU will be more loyal to his policies. Moreover, if a couple of months ago Merkel was supported by 56% of the Germans, now according to a new poll ranking leader of the Social democratic party, the candidate for the post of Chancellor Martin Schulz caught up with the leader of the Christian democratic Union of Angela Merkel and is 41%. Certainly, this can explain the recent “assaults” mouthpiece of the Kremlin in the media on Merkel and her party. As is known, the German social Democrats have always been more Pro-Russian than the Christian. Party Schultz, a former foreign Minister and likely candidate for President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier advocated a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia as a reward for each item of the Minsk agreements. In particular, the popular “Steinmeier plan”, the plan of implementation of the political part of Minsk agreements future roadmap for this approach, and is based.

Interestingly, the negotiations of Petro Poroshenko with Angela Merkel held ahead of the visit of the Ukrainian President to Washington for negotiations with Donald trump. According to sources “Segodnia” the administration of the President, such a visit could take place in late February – early March, before a possible meeting with Putin trump. Previously it was announced that a meeting of leaders of Russia and America can be held on the sidelines of the G20 summit on 7-8 July in Hamburg. But, according to Putin’s press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, the meeting could be held earlier.

But, according to a senior researcher of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic cooperation Andreas Umland, it does not mean that Germany will become a mediator between Ukraine and States. Rather, this role will depart Britain and its Prime Minister Theresa may, who with Donald trump in more trusting relationship than Merkel. The British Prime Minister became the first foreign leaders with whom trump has personally negotiated. And the result was, though not the consent of the trump thesis may need to maintain the sanctions regime against Russia until full implementation of the Minsk agreements, but the statement that “to speak about prospects of lifting the sanctions before.” By the way, according to sources “Segodnya” in the Ukrainian dipkrugah, contacts Theresa may with Poroshenko worked out, and soon may be a phone conversation.