The inauguration of each new American President is an ambitious, spectacular and grandiose event, which lasts for several days. 20 January, 19:00 Kyiv time Donald trump took the oath and made his speech to the American people. All the world’s experts and analysts have been waiting for this, ready to decipher the hidden and encrypted in the speech of the 45th US President’s promises.
First, in his first speech trump talked a lot about the internal problems of America and Americans, criticized the previous government and promised to restore the economy and create jobs. But most of all conjecture and speculation caused the abstracts of trump on the future foreign policy of States. According to experts “Segodnja” asked to perform the inaugural address of trump, USA may revise the program of assistance to foreign countries and even to reduce the cost of the activities of NATO in Europe. The concern is maybe Ukraine, so experts advise to take the initiative and offer the American side to conduct an audit of their care. However, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, do not look in his inaugural speech trump hidden promises regarding future U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Russia.
“Inaugural speech trump was short and devoted mainly to domestic issues. But he touched on a few main themes (mentioned – Ed.) in his campaign regarding foreign policy, including the importance of American interests, placing them in the first place, and lack of interest of Washington in the internal political processes of other countries. But it does not give a clue to what the Administration will do in relation to Ukraine and Russia”, – said “Segodnia” John Herbst.
AFP photo
TOP 5 main theses in his inaugural speech trump
1. We protect the borders of other countries and did not protect their own. We have spent trillions of dollars abroad at the time, as the infrastructure of America is falling apart. We have enriched other countries, however, wealth, power, and confidence of our country crumbled and disappeared over the horizon.
2. Every decision on trade, taxes, immigration, foreign Affairs will be made in favor of American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from other countries who steal our companies and destroy our jobs.
3. We will strengthen old alliances and create new ones. We will unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorists. We will destroy them completely, erase from the face of the earth.
4. We will build new roads, highways, bridges, airports, tunnels, Railways across our great country. We will adhere to two rules: buy American and hire Americans.
5. We transfer the power from Washington D.C. and return it to you, people.
Very long time a small group in the capital enjoyed all the bonuses and people paid the price for it. Washington bloomed, but not shared with the people of their wealth.
Mikhail Pashkov
program co-Director of foreign policy and international security Razumkov Centre
In his inaugural speech trump there are some important points that are worth paying attention to. First and foremost, this is a very clear articulated orientation to American national interests in foreign policy. Trump notes that they are not going to Fund a foreign army and fight at the external borders. It is not about the isolationism of America, but rather about a more pragmatic approach in the context of new foreign policy philosophy of the President who will rely on the business and a pragmatic approach. So here you need to consider some threat to translate the European part of NATO to self-sufficiency, that is, to limit the financial influence of the US on this block, which now stands at 72% of the total budget, and more to limit the overall geopolitical presence of the United States on the European continent. This raises very serious questions before the European partners. Perhaps in the near future with the Prime Minister of Britain (trump will meet with Theresa may this Friday – Ed.) will go the conversation, but the fact that such promises are made and that they obviously are very wary of European leaders that’s expected. That is, in this case we are talking about the maximum pragmatism and not on geo-strategic promotion in the world of the American position, of the ideals of freedom, democracy – all focused on than previous presidents. Mostly it is a business approach which, obviously, will make European leaders more rigorously to a balanced and pragmatic attitude, including the relationship with the current White House Administration. There should probably talk about the possible serious changes in the relations between Brussels and Washington on the US-EU and US-NATO, but the answers to all the questions inaugural speech certainly didn’t. Because to develop the foreign policy of the United States will not 20 January as it was announced, and in the process of negotiations. And negotiations can affect the position of the trump, and his foreign policy coordinates. So expect less christallizovanne of course, most likely during the first months, maybe even up to six months. The negative concerns are certainly present, but on the other hand need to see how world practice will influence and determine the foreign policy of the United States.
Alain Getmanchuk
Director of the Institute of world politics
Subsequent U.S. assistance, including to Ukraine, will be provided for more severe conditions. I believe that the Ukrainian government could and to propose a new American Administration a kind of audit of us aid to Ukraine. That is, to evaluate how effective use of other resources and assure that not one cent of American tax-payers will not be used inefficiently. This is an extremely difficult task, given our weak institutional capacity, the low capacity even to absorb certain remedies. But I think it would be right by to take the initiative and show that we are interested in efficient use of us aid. With regard to assistance in security and defense spheres, is simpler, since Ukraine can show that it is not have this kind of Freeloader as you think in America and many countries-members of NATO that do not spend on self defense is necessary for NATO 2% of GDP. Ukraine spends 5% on security and defense, that is with them for defense in any case is more than 2%. This is the standard which is performed by only five countries-members of NATO. Here, Ukraine should go with the argument that we, in fact, too concerned about their safety that we are not totally dependent on the United States.
The concept or the epithet “civilized”, which is the trump used in the context of the fight against ISIS, still requires further clarification. That meant the President trump, what kind of country he thinks is civilized and what is not? For him, as for many Western politicians everything is relative. If to compare Russia with North Korea, then maybe it will be civilized. If you compare with certain NATO allies, obviously Russia does not look civilized. But we again do not know what the vision of the President of the United States about this definition. But obviously more. He quite clearly said “the creation of new alliances” to combat radical Islamic terrorism. And here it is hoped that Donald trump, who constantly criticized President Obama that his position was very weak in this subject and very weak in dialogue with foreign partners and in particular with Russia, which only provoked an escalation, demonstrate a really strong position, as promised during the election campaign and long-term national interests of the United States will be the driving force to create new alliances to combat international terrorism and ISIS. That is, that U.S. national interests will manifest themselves and how the new President will be able to defend them in the dialogue with countries such as Russia.
Alexander Motyl
Professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark (new Jersey)
It is, however interesting that is built on fundamentally false, paranoid vision of America. Trump says that America is on the verge of collapse, that’s not true, and that the world (America – Ed.) uses, which is also not true. The foreign policy of other countries (tramp – Ed.) completely ignores, thus, noting that his regime is not built on nationalism as wrong to say the commentators, and the great-power chauvinism. And here is the interesting question: is it possible cooperation of the two leaders are chauvinists Putin and trump? Moreover, not only chauvinists, and even imperialist. It is unlikely that cooperation will be easy. And another question: is it possible cooperation between the two so paranoid megalomania? It is unlikely that it will be long. This contradiction of Ukraine opens some opportunities. Ukraine as such Trump is not interesting. But if over time it will worsen American relations with Putin, which is very plausible, then Ukraine could become a small partner trompowsky America. Another thing that up to that time a lot happens because of the trump – conflicts, crises, even wars that may harm Ukraine. In short, Ukraine must be very careful, focused on their own interests, be prepared to actively react to any possible occasion to declare itself and to defend itself.
Oleksandr Sushko
scientific Director of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic cooperation
Indeed, there are certain countries that the United States very much support. Ukraine though was last year in the TOP 10, but compared to the aid to Israel is incomparable. And in the first three – Israel, Egypt and Afghanistan. I can hardly imagine, despite the fact that trump has positioned itself as a once very Pro-Israel in recent discussions that he, for example, contributed to the reduction of this aid to Israel. Total of all US aid to foreign countries does not exceed 1% of all government spending, so it is one thing to speak from the stands popular phrases to please the voters, because the voters may think that a lot of spending goes on foreign aid. But another thing, when it comes to specific items of expenditure. It is clear that there will be no automatism in the continuation of the existing assistance programmes. Obviously, that will be evaluated the effectiveness and content of these programs, perhaps some of them will be reduced. But now, to talk about what, in what volume and to what countries we can’t, because it was not yet carried out any assessment. It is obvious that there is a Congress, and state bureaucracy in the relevant departments, so there is no direct ability to quickly reconcile these statements with specific policies. There will obviously be some steps to demonstrate to voters that the country spends less on the external world. But what it will form, because the American presence in the outside world has so many different forms, it is not only direct financing, direct presence, military presence (military bases), this macro-financial assistance, this is finally the voice of the United States in international financial institutions. That is not all this directly concerns the immediate expenses of the budget of the United States. Some steps will be made, but their contents we learn in the coming weeks, this question is for the longer term.
In his inaugural speech, trump hints at cooperation with Russia. Trump says, “to strengthen old alliances and create new ones.” I can see that, because this thesis in one form or another is repeated, it is very transparent, visible hint, they say, let us consider such an Alliance with Putin. But I think that very soon will be understanding the differences between strategic interests in this matter. If, for example, the core interest is the cooperation with Russia to significantly weaken ISIS, the fundamental interest of Russia in this Alliance will be a significant weakening of the United States. And it will be much more important objective for Putin than to weaken ISIS. And in this respect the prospects of such an Alliance look very questionable just because of the differences of these indigenous interests and intentions.
