Donald trump and the end of the American order

The story takes place in 1959 in Orleans. On the banks of the Loire America meets old France. Near the city, NATO set up its base and opened their shops, who accompany the us army. The U.S. provides protection to allies and at the same time, exporting its own “soft power”, American pop culture. Everything goes hand in hand: on the one hand, fighter-bombers, on the other — jeans, t-shirts Fruit of the Loom, moccasins collegian is with coin top and the jazz, music, records, tools. Revolution in the Gallic province.

Common values

Director Alain corneau (Alain Corneau) tells about the life of French teenagers after the war. Released in 1995, “New world” based on the novel “American occupation” of Kinyara Pascal (Pascal Quignard). U.S. foothold in Europe. They do not want to repeat the mistake of 1920-ies, when turned inward, giving her at the mercy of fascism and Nazism. They restore Western Europe. Form the “liberal order” based on shared values: the rule of law, political democracy, market economy, free trade. In General.

American builders (Harry Truman, Dean Acheson, George Marshall, Dwight Eisenhower) and their European counterparts saw a deep affinity interests: what is good for US, good for Europe. The cold war between the USSR and the “Western camp” has only reinforced the American idea. Relying on the vanquished in the fall of 1945 Japan, Washington began to build a similar network of alliances in the Pacific region. Everything was based on a network of institutions in which the dominant role belonged to the United States. This applies to the UN, the International monetary Fund and the world Bank. In Europe in the Wake of the Marshall plan, Washington went beyond the military Alliance NATO: America supported the nascent project of European unification, from common market to EU.

The structure still holds, although he is 70 years old. But all this is just illusion, we are told: this world is no more. Originated after the Second world liberal order will soon disappear. Some even call the date of his death: November 8, 2016, election day Donald trump President of the United States. A few months earlier, in June, in Europe came the first Wake-up call: the United Kingdom has decided to withdraw from the EU. We were on the dawn of a new “new world”.

Isolationist position

Why trump seems to be in the role of destroyer of the Empire or of a physician, which disables the patient from the equipment. In the campaign of unprecedented Republican was traced none of his predecessors since 1945, the isolationist position. It destroyed a bipartisan consensus about the benefits of the American “liberal order” that shaped Washington since the Second world war. He said “obsolescence” NATO and expressed doubts about the military Alliance with Japan and South Korea.

He expressed understanding and sympathy for the idea of natural Russian zone of influence in post-Soviet Europe: the shock on both sides of the Atlantic, the anxiety in Ukraine and in the Baltic States, a storm of applause in Moscow. His program on how to “re-make America great” implies a liberation from strategic commitments. “America first,” he says. In the period a kind of interregnum, from the election to taking office, the new York billionaire changed the direction of their statements, in particular NATO.

At the same time, we do not see anything similar in the second his support of isolationism: protectionism. Then Donald trump again goes against all predecessors, having fallen with criticism upon Germany, China, and Mexico. The head of the largest economy of the world stands against the dogma of free trade, which has consistently defended all US presidents since 1945. To this end, Washington created the General agreement on tariffs and trade, which then became the world trade organization. Trump threatens to get out of this structure.

Trump does not like the European Union and would like to apart. The unprecedented turn from the 1950-ies: the unification of Europe was the brainchild of postwar America that sought to do everything for the reconciliation of Germany and France. Published January 16 interview to British The Times and German Bild he criticizes standing “in the service of Germany” Europe and enthusiastically tells about Brexia that will spawn imitators in the EU and lead to its collapse. A United Europe, he said, is not “no interest for US.” Trump says about the friendly relations with the chief supporter of Breccia and leader of the Independence Party of the United Kingdom Nigel Farage (Nigel Farage). He became the first foreigner who honorably adopted after the elections in the trump Tower on 5th Avenue in new York, which became the office of the White house.

The transaction

But that’s not all. The President-elect has appointed a political adviser Steve Bannon (Steve Bannon), privateer of the American right-wing, an ardent opponent of the European Union and a former member of an extremist website Breitbart News. This resource is home to all the anti-European parties, which often receive the support of Vladimir Putin (by trump without end singing the praises of the Russian leader). Thus, in the first quarter of the XXI century there is a paradoxical situation: the hostility to the EU share of the US President with his Russian counterpart.

Both of them do not like the idea of an international order based on common rules. International arena comes down to a few great powers that agreed (or deals, as trump says). The weak can only obey. Hence, a distrust of the Union of European States who want to play among the giants, and promotes the absurd concept of joint sovereignty.

Finally, trump, blonde and tanned in the Solarium is a leading reality show and irritable head, never spoke in defense of political freedoms. During the campaign, he criticized American democracy. He believes in the efficacy of torture and would like to return to them. He was sorry that the police doesn’t beat the demonstrators. He promises to leave Guantanamo.

At first glance, it goes against the traditions of American foreign policy of promoting democracy in the world. Introduced in 1950-ies the neo-conservatives are among the most ardent followers of this school. Trump also previously supported, but now criticizes the disastrous neoconservative adventure in recent years: the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Former Minister of foreign Affairs of France Hubert védrine, Hubert (Hubert Védrine) says that the 46th President of the United States “breaks with the idea of the messianism of the nation”: “He is not sure about the course of the war with the dictatorships for the promotion of human rights”. In this regard, “there is a proven correlation between trump and Obama”: the 45th President began the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East and in particular Syria, where Russia and Turkey are no longer interested in the views of America, when they decide the fate of this unfortunate country.

Former German counterpart, Hubert védrine, Joschka Fischer (Joschka Fischer) expresses even greater regret on the pages of Project Syndicate the article entitled “the Likely end of Western world order”: “Western order relies on the continued commitment of Americans to contribute to the defense of their allies. This order can not exist without the key role of the United States, from which America Donald trump may refuse”. Conclusion: “Today, at stake is the very future of the Western order.”

The United States, “the world needs a nation”

Former NATO Secretary General Javier Solana (Javier Solana) and the head of The Brookings Institution strobe Talbott (Strobe Talbott) share the same opinion. They are concerned about the trump course, and they are sounding the alarm in The New York Times: “the World order, which provided transatlantic partnership between the US and Europe, is experiencing an existential crisis.” America’s future President will refuse to play the role of a “necessary peace of the nation”, which was formed by his predecessors.

Thus, trump will complete a departure from the invented by the USA in 1945 liberal order. It will be the symbol of transition to another world, movement to a multipolar horizon, where the West as a political concept is no longer so influential and less missionary.

But it is actually more difficult. First of all, formed after the Second world war, the system will not go away. And the new powers (China, India, etc.) does not necessarily challenge her: they protect the UN and the WTO. After 1945 the international arena wore a deeply conflicted character. She carried the imprint of the cold war and not like a slave America zone, which they say today.

At issue was illusion, which was supported by the West after the fall of the Berlin wall. President Bush believed in the existence of the prerequisites for a “new world order”. Democracy won and became limitless political horizon. Its accompanying market economy (and free trade) were the limitless horizon of development. Beyond liberal democracy and open capitalism (against the backdrop of the technological revolution) there was no other present.

In 1990-e years “the impression was that it was the end of an era of repression and autocracy,” says British historian Peter Frankopan (Peter Frankopan). Everywhere swept away the dictatorship. Mandela was released from prison. Gorbachev opened the door: the Soviet satellites gained their freedom.

In Washington, Francis Fukuyama (Francis Fukuyama) has released the cleverest book, “the End of history.” Analyst Michael mendelbaum (Michael Mandelbaum) published “Ideas that took over the world”, a nod in the direction of political democracy, market and peace in the world. The end of the cold war meant the end of ideological dispute: the West has won. There was only one political model of liberal democracy, economic future and happy globalization.

September 11 — the awakening

But it was only a dream. The awakening came September 11, 2001: no, not all believe that the future of liberal democracy. In March 2003, in response to the 2001 attacks, the US Bush invaded Iraq. In parallel, British historian Tony Judt (Tony Judt) published a prophetic article in The New York Review of Books.

Judt realized that the occupation of Iraq, Abu Ghraib prison, Guantanamo Bay, torture and other America partially destroys the world order, which she intends to promote. It causes (possibly fatal) blow to the credibility as a Herald of political freedom. Without sinking to the level of the radical left, who blame the West for all the ills of the world, he points to his responsibility in the weakening of its own ideals. Undermining them is not the trump: the depreciation of the liberal “values” began much earlier.

Judt trying to sober minds after the fall of the Berlin wall: “We live in an age of uncertainty. It is impossible to predict what will be the future of the world of market economies, what seems perfectly natural in the present moment the monopoly of the Anglo-Saxon liberal model”. “Imagine that a liberal democracy will be unable to fulfill their promises (…), then we will once again hear arguments in favor of regulation, protection and control, of both people and markets.”

And so it goes. Five years after the financial crisis of 2008 has superimposed on it, as the United States reacted to the 2001 terrorist attacks inside the country and abroad, and was another blow to liberal democracy, which was considered the end point of the development of the 1990-ies. In America and Europe, economic globalization and technological revolution have produced only weak and unevenly distributed growth. The number of liberal democracies in the world is on the decline. The last election campaign in the United States even more tarnished the image of American democracy. An authoritarian model of government has its supporters.

Guru the Anglo-Saxon economic journalism Martin wolf (Martin Wolf) wrote in The Financial Times: “once again We are entering the era of nationalism and xenophobia. Hope for a brave new world, the universal harmony, progress and democracy after the collapse of communism and opening of the markets in the 1980-ies and 1990-ies went to pieces”. Possible. But even if it did (which still not proven), trump — not the Creator of a new era, but only her reflection. And he’s realistic to the pros and cons of his time. Alain corneau, no doubt, would want to film it.