China, incidentally, is the guarantor of security of Ukraine in connection with the country’s accession to the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. And in Ukraine there are proponents of expanding the format of negotiations on the Donbass at the expense of Beijing.
What China can help Ukraine and what is behind encouraging statements of China, to understand “Observer”.
The format extension
After meeting with XI Jinping in Davos, Petro Poroshenko expressed hope that China will contribute to resolving the situation in the Donbass and will help to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Immediately come to mind earlier statements by the representative of Ukraine in the tripartite contact group, the second President Leonid Kuchma, who has repeatedly said he wants to see China at the table of negotiations on the Donbass.
For this is at least a formal reason, because China at the time also gave security guarantees to Ukraine. In 1994, Beijing has not signed the now infamous Budapest Memorandum, however, France and China spoke about the security assurances to Ukraine in the form of appropriate statements.
Despite this, prospects for the expansion of the Normandy format at the expense of China’s illusory for a number of reasons. The first and probably the most important — from a pragmatic point of view, Beijing has no reason to get involved in the negotiation process. Ukraine is not a sphere of interest of China. China is now concentrated on expanding its influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Especially notable is the increasing role of Beijing in Central Asia. And in the far East China Russia comes on the heels of. Interested in China and the Balkans, which, due to the Ukrainian crisis was in the shadow of international attention. Beijing has announced a major investment in infrastructure and energy of the Peninsula that for several years would consolidate Beijing’s influence in the Balkans. And here is reason to believe that Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine, is a region of interest to China, no. Although the economic cooperation between Ukraine and China is gradually deepening.
“By themselves Ukrainian problem to China, sorry, indifferent. Another thing is that the deeper saveset Russia in the trap where you played yourself, the greater China opportunities to obtain concessions on issues that are important to him,” — said in an interview with “observer” former Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia George kunadze.
The second reason China is simply not up to it. If the elected President of the United States Donald trump after the inauguration will carry out the promised policy, China may be in a state of trade war with the United States. Add to this the debt problems of China, forecasts of a significant decline in production, increasing tensions with Taiwan and the upcoming changes in the top Chinese leadership. If you put all these factors together, it becomes clear that Ukraine is a priority in the agenda of the PRC has no place.
The third reason — it is doubtful that Russia will agree to the format extension at the expense of China (in fact, as due to the US). China and the us are global leaders who have much more serious levers of influence on the Kremlin than that of France and Germany. By agreeing to the extension format, it will weaken their position.
The Assistance Of Beijing
A promise XI Jinping to help Kiev is a gesture of diplomatic courtesy. Full involvement in the resolution of the crisis in the Donbas from Beijing should not expect, however, this does not mean that China can help Ukraine.
For example, Beijing has provided the Ukrainian rescuers rescue equipment, as well as engineering and motor vehicles, which, according to the Minister of internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, will help to cope with difficult situations that have arisen in the former occupied territories of Donbass. Most likely, China’s assistance in resolving the Ukrainian crisis in the future will be insignificant and subject-material, but it is unlikely the political and especially the military.
However, Ukraine extracts considerable benefit from deepening economic cooperation with China. In 2015, China won the second place on volume of commodity turnover of Ukraine with the countries of the world. In the future, Kyiv wants to cooperate with Beijing in the field of housing construction and mortgage lending. In China confirmed their interest.
Do not forget about the large-scale project of a new “silk road” transport corridor between Asia and Europe bypassing Russia. The first trains have already started. The Cabinet of Ministers has repeatedly stressed that the great hopes for the route.
Beijing even offers to Kiev to sign an agreement on free trade zone, however, it is somewhat risky step for Ukraine. Chinese products have high competitiveness. The influx of cheap Chinese goods into the Ukrainian market might hurt domestic producers, although the FTA has a number of advantages.