Donbass-2017: three scenarios

Analytical forecasting of Ukrainian reality has turned today into one type of hobby: it is both difficult and incredibly easy.

On the one hand, variables this analysis used the forecasts both politicians and ordinary “resident” social networking, in fact, shuffling them like a deck of cards. On the other — the result is usually not as important as the process itself: the latter even partly determined first. This paradox is made possible only because the forecast in Ukraine became a separate form of income, but a conglomeration of experts becomes almost a special social layer.

However, the simplicity ends where it begins the checkpoints. The inscription “LDNR” means not only the absence of basic rights and liberties, a danger to life, but the uncertainty of the future, where the variables are changing with such speed that to predict tomorrow, sometimes is not easier than to understand what happened yesterday. But still try to distinguish three scenarios of the possible future of the occupied territories, assessing their probability, based on the current state of Affairs.

Before proceeding to the scenarios, one should answer the question of who today fills the occupation. With regard to social slice, it is pretty simple: mostly they are representatives of the working class. It is well known that the intelligentsia of Donbass mostly migrated to other regions of the country since the beginning of separatist unrest. We are talking not only about teachers and teachers, but also journalists, writers, musicians, scientists, who are quite firmly entrenched in the capital and major regional cities. However, the occupation was immediately created some substitutes, like “writers’ Union of DNR”, which took the place of the former members of the intellectual processes.

More complicated and important ideological portrait. Despite popular opinion, it is not so clear. Ambiguity, ironically, it adds itself the “DNR”. The ideological motive of Novorossia from Odessa to Kharkov finally fell into Oblivion. Association “LNR”, “DNR” in a unity — less popular, but present here the idea is unrealistic in light of the fact that none of quasiorthogonal did not come to the borders, which thinks itself. Therefore, there is nothing to unite. Feeling a part of the “great Russia” though slowly, but goes after the “new Russia”, that is, into oblivion. Repeated statements of Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov about the ownership of the Donbass in Ukraine, and the absence of Russian citizenship is increasingly convinced yesterday’s “Republicans” in the same “zrade,” which so like to refer to on the other side of the checkpoints. Be proud of the “young republics” as such did not have: total corruption, cynicism and theft, the occupation authorities forced to give up at the kitchen tables, even those who recently took the sausage from moonshine in the barracks to his sons.

Thus, the ordinary man in the street of the occupied Donbass — it hurt real resident of the Soviet past, which is no-no and will flash in the usual meetings and queues. This is not a discovery. More interesting. Soon it comes about returning to Ukraine, the first thing that slips off the thought of such people are not “Nazis”. It is about tariffs. In other words, wandering in the maze of the tri-color flags detects trading quite the order of ideas in which first place will be — “how much?”, not for “who?”

You should not ignore the fact that those who left lived the worst here. For various reasons these people have not left the territory, even when the front ran right through the house. This can hardly be attributed to a purely ideological motives; rather, it is that much harder than any of the ideas.

Finally, there are those who returned. These people represent a slice of society, even more rooted in the local reality than the “old-timers”. Unlike the latter, who returned twice to start a new life: when he decided to leave the occupation, and when I had to throw all there already, from the other side of the checkpoints. Coming back is no less involuntary than flight from here. Most of these people still profess the idea of a single country, although the enthusiasm quickly replaced by pragmatism here — and after six months they barely be distinguished from the ordinary “I don’t care”.

This is the General portrait of the middle class. We now turn to a bourgeois. In recent years the establishment of the Donetsk seriously changed its facade. “Arber” now the vest, “novichok” — the George cross. The whole maze of tunnels from design studios and spas, taking out to the regional administration and further into the depths of private estates — suddenly collapsed. And in their place — with so much difficulty breaking through the rain of shells came those who had been butt. This simple thing is both the symbol of the Donetsk business and a tool of diplomacy. Any question now revolves around the notorious “in the basement”. This scheme also provides membership in the “elite”. From the past — “Donetsk” — it is distinguished by two things: the caliber of the guns, and lists. The ones which flashes “from 7 to 15 years.” Paradoxically, it is this circumstance that makes the “elite vests” to ignore anything. Knowing that there is no going back, yesterday’s lumpen roughly and harshly divided and cut everything that once was built on subtle relationships and negotiations behind the high fence — like that is still white on the Donetsk “Dubki”. Now everything in the city belongs to, if not wise, his wife. If not his wife “Tashkent”. If not “Tashkent” — next on the list… members of the “National Council”, “MGB”, the police office, administrations — all who make up the modern fabric of the Donetsk “elite” — somehow “marred” in various lists. And for these people there is no turning back.

And now, in fact, about scenarios.

Scenario 1. The great war.

The case when accurate prediction is virtually impossible. Today the situation in “DPR” is. The military actually fully staffed, although there is a constant set. Technique comes significantly less even in comparison with summer of the 16th, but there is a constant flow of ammunition and fuel. Occupied territory turned into a solid military base, which is enough equipment to personnel to full active fighting. Let’s not forget about the uncontrolled border with Russia, through which at any moment can go anywhere. But the military option is still broken on the logic of figures: the latest developments on the arc Svetlodarsk showed that access to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region with the seizure of all controlled APU cities will need to transcend even through the moral import of the previous two years and lower the bar losses to the level of the campaigns in Chechnya. Perhaps — and below.

In addition, we need a serious reason. Such a reason could be the recognition of the independence “LDNR” by Russia, followed by their inclusion in structure of Russia. In this case, legal logic the Federation would come to the idea that is now controlled by the APU area — the part of Russia and occupied the Ukraine. And she would have to wage war. Last but not least these considerations serve as an argument in favor of such recognition on the part of the Russian Federation will never be.

But if that happened, we would, of course, saw a new emotional high. Those who have three years of wandering between the unrecognized status and a Ukrainian passport, I would remember about the “special Russian way”, which now really would gain a clear outline of the Kremlin stars, and not the Donetsk flag. A full-scale war would be a chance for those “veterans” who are now mired in local bars and taverns, as well as for those volunteers, the Russian Federation, who left the Donbass in the beginning of the 16th.

But for the “elite” would come not the best times. Nobody is afraid of war, dreaming about the capture of Kiev, he — Zakharchenko and the company. The thing is that all these people are overgrown greenhouse with fat from a stream of Finance that could now have with the status quo. The war for the “elite” means unnecessary risk — they have already received. Neither Givi nor Zakharchenko, “Tashkent”, no Kononov is not interested in having to change the warm rooms with the “detach” bundles of money for the well-established smuggling and business in wet, cold trench. But they will not be here: the costs of the submarine, which, as you know, not to go.

Scenario 2. Elections.

Even less likely option than a great war. The constant rhetoric Zakharchenko about the “young state” signed in Minsk as a representative of ORDO even in Donetsk, causing a grin: seriously this character does not perceive one. It is obvious that the decree from Moscow during the day can turn hybrid pumpkin carriage and finally into a vegetable — and in the “Republic” will you explain that you need to come to a meeting. Now for the fact that so successfully stopped the “fratricidal war”. In General, “LDNR” in this case is not a problem: people here are accustomed to go order. Will be released at this time.

The “problem”, but in reality — the only hope is civil society which is only emerging in our country. To prevent participation in elections — though by Ukrainian law — representatives ORDO — even more surreal than a direct assault Mariupol. It is difficult to imagine how you can beat it, Moscow, which has driven domestic diplomacy to a standstill. Because on the one hand, thousands of victims laid to such characters as Zakharchenko, Givi, never had anything to do with our country. Except as her prisoners. And on the other — hundreds of tanks, “Grad”, dozens of thousands of soldiers who fill the occupied Donbass and serve argument for “direct negotiations with representatives of Donbass”.

Anyway, legitimation ORDO in the framework of the Ukrainian legislation is definitely going to be swallowed by a local with a sigh of relief indicative of “the end of suffering.” And Maxim about the “special Russian way” will have to wait for the next “Russian spring”, when the older generation those three years went to litseistki uniforms. Without the financial support of Moscow, even the storm of indignation that will rise in this case among local fighters will soon go into decline. In fact, will happen exactly what happened in the 14-m: all will offer repainted in other colors. And especially the ideological will have to look for yourself in the vastness of the “great Russia”. In practical terms, for the local military contingent is unlikely that anything will change — except for the withdrawal of regular troops back to Russia. Everyone else in this case would change only the name, came under the Amnesty.

But the main stone in the Shoe would be all the same “elite” that would annoy the eyes. It is difficult to imagine who in the case of elections will be Zakharchenko, Givi, “Tashkent” and other characters. But getting them into Ukrainian politicians can rightly be considered the biggest disappointment in our country in 25 years.

Scenario 3. Will not change anything.

What is likely to happen. And it’s not even “no alternative to Minsk,” which means the barbed wire is ten years or more. The fact that you do not change anything — here is the best option for everyone. We already know how to feel here “elite”, creating “LDNR” lawlessness. These people do not need changes: they are at the top, and any movement would mean a downward movement. And direction — left and right — not so important.

Local? Well, two and a half years of war patriots from those who stayed, and themselves in the most sure that “LDNR” is forever. All the rest have long found themselves as residents of those territories which Wikipedia dedicate a separate section. In rare revival days when you have to stand in the cold for eight hours, they can remember that they live in a dream world that doesn’t exist on the map. But otherwise — it’s all over, barely through the post will take sausage.

Military? Both sides is a millionth of smuggling. For the next in the evolutionary chain provided turns: here, you can profit a little less, but still. And Svetlodarsk occurs only once a year. God willing, will carry.

Policy? “In the country viyna” is often explained fares, road, dollar. All this in the trenches — look, they say, all in there somewhere. And the streams of contraband originated somewhere in the capital before becoming a sea here during the war.

The rest of the country? The war is long been personal and lives in the homes of those whose loved ones at the forefront. For the rest of the Ukrainians of the Donbass does not occur more than TSN. With the loss of Donetsk resigned as resigned to the loss of the Crimea, the return of which in the coming years I would venture to say no serious expert.

Perhaps somewhere there is a fourth option called “miracle”. But in the title of the script only three.