Why Ukraine fell soup, if prices are rising

Over the past year, a favorite Ukrainian dish is borsch fell by 11%. This is shown by the research of experts of the Ukrainian agrarian Confederation, who calculated the index of borscht specifically for “Today”. What influenced the depreciation of the recipe and how to change the cost of meals for spring, read our review.

RECIPE. The three-liter pot main dish of the country fell over the year by UAH 6 and now costs 48,8 UAH. For comparison, in December 2015, the same pot would cost at 54.9 UAH. But, taking into account annual inflation of about 14%, we now had arithmetically to rise to 62.5 UAH. This paradox UAK analyst Dmitry Dane explains sharp, compared to 2016, lower prices for vegetables. “The cost of meals is pulled down vegetable prices, which fell by two to three times. Most notably is the potato (-12,4%), beets (-50,9%), onions (-56,5%), carrots (-60,8%), cabbage (Kazakhstan -63,1%). Also decreased average prices for tomatoes (-9,4%). But vegetables namely tomatoes make up the largest expenses, because they “occupy” 34% of the soup. But most of all to fork out traditionally have meat, because the cost of a kilogram of pork for the year increased by 4% and that is now the load 44% in the soup vs. 38% last year”, explained the Dane.

FORECAST. According to experts, in the first quarter of 2017, the cost of the soup is not cheaper. “Now prices are not falling because of the holidays. But after the cost of traditional recruitment will be affected by seasonality. The fact that in the winter, even in the face of growing greenhouse production, the supply of vegetables on the market is inferior to the demand, so the prices of vegetables remain high,” explains the Dane.

I agree with this and the Director of the Ukrainian Association of trade networks suppliers Oleksiy Doroshenko. The expert predicts growth of BORSHCHOV set in the first quarter of 2017 to approximately 5% of the monthly: “the rise In prices could affect the pending growth factor because vegetables are expensive in the fall, and this trend started in December. Therefore vegetable set can rise in price and further, because the warehouses have less inventory.”

But pork prices may remain stable until the spring. “The winter pork prices may slightly fluctuate in the range of 1-2%, because the situation on the world market is now stable. In addition, now all pork sold on the domestic market, because of the African swine fever virus for our manufacturers closed export (in recent years, outbreaks of ASF were recorded in Khmelnytsky, Transcarpathian and Odessa regions. — Ed.). This situation also affects the stability in pork prices,” says Doroshenko.

But Dane did not rule out that meat can be a bit more expensive, because its production decreases, and thus prices can crawl up. “Still now there are no objective factors that have spurred farmers to significant price rise. So the most likely scenario according to the index of soup is this: prices should stabilize after the holidays and stay that way until the end of winter,” says Dane.