Ukrainian car market ends the year in the growth phase: in November, sales of new cars exceeded last year’s forecasts of analysts. There were car loans, increased market capacity beushnye car. Expectations from the new year while maintaining the status quo (the exchange rate and a stable economy) optimistic: we will go up moderately in the same growing pace. New cars on the roads of the country will be more — due to further recovery in banks and new affiliate programs, and “beushki” actively going out of Europe in the light coming through the year of the introduction of Euro-6. Experts confused by only one thing: suspicious activity of the state. By the end of the year the authorities there were many initiatives, which are designed to support, but in fact can seriously knock the market. For adoption there are not a lot of time, but the predictions still “chill”.
SALES AND PRICES IN THE HANDS OF THE GOVERNMENT
At the end of the year market volumes of new cars increased by more than a third. If in 2015-m has sold 46 thousand passenger cars, 2016 ended at around 64 thousand, predicts CEO of the Ukrainian Association avtoimporterov and dealers (VAAID) Oleg Nazarenko. The Corporation “UkrAVTO” I think the market may even exceed 65 thousand. “We have pent-up demand, – said Nazarenko. — Almost 2 years people thought, isn’t it time to collect the bags. And when came to the country some stability, interest in durable goods alive.”
“In addition, in the autumn revival of the market was partly due to good conditions on lending from such brands as KIA, Chery, Renault, Nissan,” — noted in “UkrAVTO”. Under unchanged dynamics of sales will continue in the new year.
“The volume of market of new passenger cars will be in the range of 75-85 thousand”, — predicts Sergey Borovik, marketing Director of group of companies AIS.
However, cheaper car will not be the effect of lower import duty to 1% (available from January 2017 in the framework of the agreement on FTA with the EU) will be eaten by inflation and the rise of the dollar (8.1% and 27,2 USD for dollar in the budget-2017).
Ukraine is hanging over the IMF’s recommendation to increase excise taxes on automobiles by 15%.
“Prices will likely remain at this year, — said Nazarenko. — If a process does not interfere with the government, Parliament or Monetary Fund. So, the Cabinet is preparing a decree which will give him the right through the Interdepartmental Committee on international trade to impose special duties on passenger cars come from the European Union. Not only so, but under certain conditions which are stated in the FTA agreement. For example, if the import evroavto will be more than 45 thousand units (a) if imports from the EU is our market share not less than 20% (its share is now over 50%), if the import has exceeded the proportion of necroinvasiv (which we do in fact not)”.
In the case of the adoption of the document with the new year there are all preconditions to not wait decreasing and increasing the duty. Accordingly, we will get prices for evroavto. How much will depend on the greed of the officials.
“Over hangs with Ukraine the IMF’s recommendation to increase excise taxes on automobiles by 15%. This one does not remember, but the Fund can have their say. Well, a real blow to the market may be the adoption of the bill on new rules of stay in Ukraine the car foreign numbers. Then the sales growth will be forgotten,” stresses Nazarenko.
RESALE: NEW SCHEMES OF COOPERATION
The most anticipated event — the introduction of preferential excise duties on the importation of used cars, played with the market turned out to be a bad joke. “In the first half of the year in anticipation of this law, the used car market almost did not work. When the law is adopted, it turned out that to benefit ordinary Ukrainians hard, — says Nazarenko. — So for the year of cars with mileage in Ukraine will be imported less than in the past.” “The share of imported used cars compared to the volume of the secondary market in the country remains small (less than 10%)”, — confirms Sergey Borovik. But domestic resale was nearly the most active market for new cars. “The resale market for 11 months increased by 30%” — calculated in UkrAVTO. This is caused by the same pent-up demand. The market is also stimulated, adopted in may the law on trade-ins: car dealers have begun to accept cars with mileage on the Commission, and to resell them with the guarantee.
In the new year, the domestic market of cars with mileage will be even busier, experts say. There will be new cooperation schemes salons with clients. Today people love to pass the old car on Commission to offset the cost of new. Also, despite the “difficulties of transport”, may increase the import of used foreign cars, because 2017 will be the last, when the country allowed to import cars of Euro-5 standard. But already in 2018, comes into force a ban on the import of cars below Euro-6 standard.
“Beushki”. Are better sold because of the law on trade-ins. Photo: Vladimir Sayapin/TASS
THE POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE MARKET
With the new year can change the rules for finding a car in foreign rooms. Now the car without customs clearance, which entered Ukraine in transit, is obliged within 5 days to cross the border again. The residents of the border areas, buying a car in Europe once a week I drive it to “presecco” that creates a queue at customs. Solutions to problems in Parliament five: there are bills that propose to increase in Ukraine the period of stay bonded car up to 30 days up to 2 months to a year. There are options of finding such cars in the country for a fee (6 thousand UAH per year). And the State fiscal service offers to pay for the customs clearance units at 0.25% per month for 33 years. Which option you choose, it is hard to say. While the most discussed are the GFS initiative and the proposal of the Deputy parasiuk — to let into the country without customs clearance for 6 thousand UAH per year. “These initiatives will strike the market, — said Nazarenko. Without clearance will start to import all sorts of foreign cars, including new, because the Istanbul Convention, which could allow such schemes temporary admission, does not distinguish between the cars age. And it has higher power than the laws of Ukraine”.
FUEL FROM A JERK — NOT THE LAST
Gasoline and diesel this year, slowly but surely more expensive. First, on a dime, and in the second half of the year, the hryvnia. “Such a rise in price of petroleum products at relatively stable the national currency caused a rise in world oil prices from $35 to $55 per barrel,” — says the member of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of energy strategies Yuri Korolchuk. The price of liquefied petroleum gas until the summer behaved calmly, but took the leap in July-August. “If before the summer period gas cost about 40% of the price of gasoline A-95, in September September, this figure rose to 55% — analyzes Director of the consulting Agency “A-95″ Sergey Kuiun. — The reason for the popularity of this source of energy: its consumption in the country has increased over three years by 60%. In this regard, in the summer, the market saw a shortage of propane-butane, which allowed to find alternative sources of supply”.
To predict the situation with the prices in the new year is not easy. “We don’t know what will happen to the dollar and how to behave in oil prices — says Kuiun. Now oil-producing countries want to limit oil production to raise prices. How this idea is successful, it will be clear by the end of the 1st quarter. The price will rise, but how is the question because not all countries joined the agreement. In particular, the United States is a major producer of oil and gas – remain on the perimeter of this agreement. But still no one waiting for prices above $60 per barrel. In this case, the cost of petroleum products will grow by 8-10 per cent, or 2-2,5 UAH per liter”. Higher prices may be on the level of 3-4 UAH, if we add the devaluation of the hryvnia. “Assuming that oil will cost $65-70 per barrel, and the hryvnia will weaken to at least 5%, the price tags at the gas station can reach up to 30 UAH per liter of gasoline,” — says Korolchuk.
Liquefied natural gas, according to experts, may be a little cheaper, but in the future year gas price tags will catch up with oil. “If the fuel market will not experience major upheavals, the gas price will remain at the current level plus the hryvnia,” – said Korolchuk. “Due to the rate of the excise tax, which, according to the adopted law on the state budget, will grow less than on gasoline, natural gas in 2017 will remain attractive for the consumer. The main problem of this market will remain the dominance of illegal gas stations,” – says Kuiun.
ELECTRIC CARS: ARE CHEAPER BY 20%
World fashion for the eco this year has finally reached Ukraine. “On average, their sales amounted to 2.5 cars per day, or about 75 cars a month” — said one of the founders of ElectroCars Club Vladimir Romantsov. We will remind that since January the country has been cancelled import duties (8-10%) for cars with electric propulsion. However, the monetary benefit was meager, but positive wave of information went. “People are increasingly interested in carts, — said the head of the Ukrainian center of eco-vehicles Vladimir Lysenko. And this year’s sales could be higher if not for the problem with the certification. Because of gaps in legislation at the beginning of the year at customs hung dozens already purchased machines that did not issue the certificate of conformity to our standards.”
In the new year want to cancel the VAT and the excise tax on electric vehicles.
In the summer and autumn to bring electric cars to the country no one even tried. And only in November, when the certification was simplified, the market resumed activity. In addition, in Ukraine for the first time official players have already begun sales of BMW (i3 and i8), and with the new year, you should see the car Renault (Kangoo ZE and Zoe).
The appearance of an official Aromasin on the market can match with a nice surprise for Ukrainians: in the new year, MPs want to abolish VAT and the excise tax on electric vehicles. “The bill has already received the unconditional support of four committees of the Verkhovna Rada”, — says Oleg Nazarenko. If the document is adopted, electric cars will become cheaper not 5% as in the case of cancellation of import duties. “The price will drop by 20%, — said Vladimir Romantsov. — That is, a used Nissan Leaf can be bought not for $13, and $10 million, and the new BMW i3 will cost $36 and $28.5 thousand.”
ONLINE INSURANCE AND SMART INSURANCE
Car insurance this year took a step forward in terms of customer service. Was doubled liability limits for insurance and the size of payments for the Euro Protocol. “Every sixth address to the insurer in connection with accident and it was decorated with evroprotokola, that is, without involving the police. The increase in the number of decorated evroprotokolov was 66% — said the Director General of MTIBU Vladimir Shevchenko. Also at the end of the year, we launched the project of direct settlement in which client was injured in an accident can get payment for insurance in your insurance. Already during the first two weeks under the direct settlement was 152 treatment and carried out 18 charges of insurance payments”.
In the new year — the transition of insurance online. “In 2017 participants of road accident will be able to issue a European accident report in electronic form, without risk of mistake when it is populated. And the information about this event will instantly become known to insurers. It is also planned the transition of the market from paper to electronic policies,” says Shevchenko. Influence of these innovations on the price, hard to say: in MTIBU assure that the tariff policy for OSAGO contracts in the new year will not change significantly. But the insurers themselves are saying that all of the prerequisites to growth of tariffs, associated, including, and with the growth of loss, are available.
The hull market is also not “grazes the back” for the year thanks to the growth of automobile sales the auto insurance segment increased by 20%. “Prices did not decrease, but insurers began to shape a proposal more loyal, says communications Manager IC PZU Ukraine Oleksandr Melnychuk. — Discounts for the extension of the Treaty to certain categories of policyholders have reduced the average tariff level in the market. This trend will continue in the new year”. “Customers want to control the cost of hull insurance due to the option set, — emphasizes the Director of the Department of affiliate sales and Bank IC “AXA Insurance” Alena Lipunova. — Because insurers will offer limits on the risks higher deductible. Also very popular are waiting for a hull with a telematics device that allows you to track the driving style by assigning a certain number of points. Depending on them, the client will be able to save up to 30% of total payment”.
With all these “sweets” to the policyholder should still be careful when choosing an insurer. This year, 4 companies lost their license and was excluded from the MTIBU. “In the new year the insurance company will also be closed as many of the insurers that sell insurance policies through agents and pay them Commission of up to 50%. The company still need to pay taxes and contributions to guarantee funds and to leave something for profit. In such circumstances, reduce payments for an accident, and then comes bankruptcy, — predicts CEO of SK “dim Insurance” Roman Malenko. Shevchenko advises when buying a policy to visit the site MTIBU: there you can find information about the quality of the settlement, the timing of payments and complaints on each company.
Progress. Every 6th of the accident was done with a evroprotokola.
“COX” PARTNERS
Against the background of sales growth, revitalize the banking sector. “During the year own or affiliate programs car loans have become systematically embedded in the market at least 10 banks”, — says adviser to the President of the Association of Ukrainian banks Alex Kush. “Given that the market of car sales in 2016, up 40%, approximately the same increase in the number of loans, calculates the Director of the Department of sales through alternative channels and partners of the Bank “credit Agricole Bank” Roman Bunich. — While it is possible to select only a few active players, which has concentrated about 80% of all credit sales. With the beginning of the year the decreasing interest rates on the average on 1,5—2% depending on the partner, and the terms of lending programs”.
Now the real interest rate of loans for the purchase of cars is around 20%. Because the most popular among the borrowers were and remain joint credit program banks and importers for certain brands or models of cars. “Within their framework, the customer receives a cost reduction for credit and often enough — for cars, compared with “standard” proposals (from 0 to 17% depending on loan term and down payment. — Ed.) — explains the Director of the Department of car loans of PJSC “Kredobank” Alexander Kushlyk. — In the new year we expect to maintain the growth of the market through collaborative programs with importers”. “Rates may drop slightly only under the condition of relatively stable banking system, as well as a stable cost of deposits,” warns Bunich.
Popular. Joint programs of banks and car importers.
