RFI: Hello Stanislav. We record an interview in Paris. If it is absolutely exact — in the vicinity of Paris. The city lost a lot of tourists after the terrorist attacks of 2015. Now the authorities are trying to promote the image, the image of Paris for tourists. And recently, the new American President is very unflattering spoke of Paris, said Paris is not the Paris. You still decided to come here. What do you think?
Stanislav Belkovsky: I decided to come the day after the terrorist attacks in the “Bataclan” and so on. I spent a few days here. And then made sure that it lived its normal life. A terrible panic, fled people and empty streets were not. Moreover, there is no panic now.
With regard to the evaluation of Paris, it was the city of my youth. I spent three months in 1990. By the terminology, France was the first capitalist country in which I arrived. I worked in publishing house “the Syntax” Maria Vasilievna Rozanova. Therefore, as Hemingway said, if you’re lucky, and you’re young to Paris, you will keep this impression for the whole life, because Paris is a holiday that is always with you. And vulgar Russian joke is: what distinguishes the man from Paris? Paris is always Paris.
— Do you have some favorite place in Paris? Or the place you come from when you come?
Are two different things. Not always come to the beloved, sometimes you are not allowed. My favorite spot is the Luxembourg gardens and everything around him.
— We will change the subject. Question from Facebook. What do you think, Stanislav, whether Dmitry Medvedev to resign after the scandal with the revelations of Bulk?
— The movie “you do not Dimon” Alexei Navalny probably works for Dmitry Medvedev and to stabilize its political and hardware items. President Vladimir Putin do not make decisions under pressure and especially under pressure from the opposition, especially the non-systemic opposition represented by Alexei Navalny. So if you were thinking to dismiss Medvedev, that after this film they are not, and who knows when the next time they appear. This is the first.
And secondly, to demonstrate the wealth of Russian Prime Minister says that he is disinterested and almost, as they say in Russia, Loch. The acronym “Loh” stands for “an individual deceived by hooligans”. This is from police reports 20 years. He only stole a billion dollars. And all these residences not designed for it. We saw neither the oil companies nor shares in Gazprom, nor any of the offshore companies, which would lay a huge amount, as the cellist Roldugin, twice surpassing the value of all assets controlled by Dmitry Medvedev informal. But this person took a bunch of important state posts. He was the head of the presidential administration, first Deputy Chairman of the government, the President, the Prime Minister. Against this background, other officials who have tens of billions of dollars have happily show Medvedev the finger and say: “I am disinterested”.
In addition, Putin didn’t learn anything new about Dmitry Medvedev. It is clear that all these residences had come to him in agreement with the first person.
In this sense, it is interesting to draw a parallel with the case, which is in France, the scandal surrounding françois Fillon. Compared with Medvedev, Fillon nothing was stolen, apparently. There’s less than a million euros.
Yeah, but Dmitry Medvedev is a patriot, so it should be evaluated under Russian law. And according to Russian laws, if the President and he is Prime Minister for many years, stole just a billion dollars, so it is really absolutely honest soul and body. Besides, he was not satisfied with his wife for a fictitious job. It would be much worse.
But in France it is quite impossible to continue to be a candidate to occupy the post… to quote Medvedev, corruption or embezzlement of public funds was not only illegal but improper.
— If now in my place were Dmitry Medvedev, he would have said that there was no embezzlement of public funds. One residence gave the businessman Alisher Usmanov at the expense of their legal income. Another gave the “Bashneft”. By the way, that largely sat Vladimir Petrovich Yevtushenkov, head of AFK “Sistema”, “Bashneft” was treated as an independent financial source for Medvedev, and that many were not satisfied. That is why “Bashneft” took Vladimir Yevtushenkov. His attempts to build an independent line of relations with Medvedev, inconsistent with the Kremlin, this failed and ended. But formally, Medvedev did not steal anything. Gave him. And gave not to him but to charity. But charities should do charity. So they worship a very specific person.
— If to speak about the situation in Russia in General, now the authorities come conflicting signals. Released Ildar Dading, freed Eugene Chudnovets, the teacher convicted of a repost. At the same time and held hours-long search of human rights activist Zoe Light. What’s going on?
— In the case of Ildar Dading, it is not clear. I’d postponed the discussion because then you can float the nuances that today are inaccessible to us and which could be perceived in bayonets progressive community. It often happens that the progressive community in Russia creates idols of the artist Peter Pavlenkova, and then it turns out that these heroes are not exactly who they say they are.
As for Eugenia Chudnovets, the absurdity of this case is absolutely obvious, and the Kremlin has not brought great sacrifice, setting her free. And the search Zoe Light, apparently, was associated with the need another intimidate organization “Open Russia” Mikhail Khodorkovsky, in which it operates, and hatred which does not stop for a minute.
— For you there is no contradiction?
— No, no. About any thaw, about any radical change of course in the field of human rights protection. Although if we’re having this discussion, this means that the aim of the organizers of all these cases has been achieved. We are ready to believe that a thaw is. Because people always believes what he wants to believe. Therefore, as is customary in contemporary Russian politics, you need a little bit to entice his little finger and little finger you’re going until suddenly a few months or not not be rested in one large Fig.
— Offer to talk about the elections in France, which will take place this spring. How these elections are seen from Moscow? Initially, Moscow supported and prepared for the victory of the candidate from right party “the Republicans” françois Fillon. What is happening now? Around the Fillon scandal, his chances of beating Ty. Do still visit?
— Russia does not support any of the candidates on any election. Its basic idea is to discredit democracy. Russia actually did not support trump. She supported the discrediting of the results of the American elections, being firmly confident in the victory of Hillary Clinton. Sergei Kiriyenko, the first Deputy head of the presidential administration of Russia and the curator of internal policy, was appointed to this position in view of the coming normalization of relations with Hillary Clinton. He has a reputation or rather the image of a liberal and Democrat (completely unfairly, but that’s not important). With this image at the ready he had to go to clintonesque the White house. But then suddenly it turned out that I won the trump and the joy of victory, trump was not connected with the candidature of that person as such (it was initially clear that nothing good comes from him, Russia should not wait, that we see today), and the fact that the American political machine gave the tragic crash.
And when it was announced that Russian hackers, it appears, determined the fate of the US elections, Vladimir Putin is proud. And as the mask grows to face, he seems to be beginning to believe it.
The same with France. Not Fillon was the object of support. The support object was the discrediting of the political system and personally hated Hollande, who did not go to any concessions in matters of easing sanctions against Russia.
Candidate, who is known as one of the favorites for the presidency, centrist Emmanuel macron expressed active concern about the possible intervention of Russia in the electoral process in France.
— All sorts of hacking attacks possible. I don’t think they will seriously affect the elections. Behaviour Fillon me as a political consultant in retirement, doesn’t seem so unreasonable. A certain part of the electorate still thinks that Fillon tried to withdraw from the race unfair that the sins scale does not correspond to the scale of the disaster and retribution for these sins. The phenomenon Brekzita and trump was this: in what is not only accused trump, but for a certain part of the electorate this was proof that the political establishment is doing everything it can and passes all valid and invalid faces, to ensure the victory of Hillary Clinton.
I think that a significant portion of the French electorate will relate to the trials and tribulations of Fillon: a man is nothing wrong, in principle, not done well, his wife was attached to work, but the establishment was so adamant about wanting to avoid him to power, which staged the infamous provocation and police methods have virtually removed the human from winning. Than it will end — I wouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. This can lead to a surge of love for Fillon side if not most, but some part of the electorate, today, maybe and sleeping.
And for Russia important turbulence. It is important that none of the victorious France of the candidates had a significant majority. Makron is good for the fact that he represents the party not represented in Parliament. And that in itself discredit the notion of democracy.
Although Emmanuel macron is still the anti-system, he graduated from prestigious schools…
— What a trump he is still anti-system. He comes from a wealthy family. His business began with a loan from father in the amount of $ 14 million. I wish I could be so anti-system.
— What is the ultimate goal of Russia in its desire to discredit the system?
— Vladimir Putin is stepping up its popularity in the West among the people. Not to say that these attempts are entirely unsuccessful. In the elites it is sufficiently discredited, and not all detachments and divisions of the elites. Among the common peoples, its popularity is growing because he is the antithesis decomposed and scatty Western leaders, from the point of view of a certain part of the electorate in the US and in Europe.
Therefore, he believes that when he reaches a proper level of popularity among the people due to the discrediting of the political systems of the West and a demonstration that the difference in terms of hypocrisy, falsehood, fraud between the Russian political system and the Euro-Atlantic system is not, he will receive an additional lever for the easing of sanctions and talks of returning to some semblance of Yalta-Potsdam world where the spheres of influence divided is fixed between major countries. That is, it does not support specific candidates, this philosophical line at discrediting political systems.
In the same vein, Moscow supports the extreme right, who call themselves anti-systemic forces in the West in General?
Not only the ultra-right. In Greece, support for the incumbent Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, leader of SYRIZA, ultralevel. Important antisystematic, not ideological vector, because Putin is the man himself is non-ideological. He has no ideology in the classical enlightenment sense of the word. He is a pragmatist. It to fit your goals sign any ideology, any quote will pick up.
The rise of populism, the turn to conservatism (and, with the right-wing notes), isolationism, the desire to be fenced off with barbed wire and walls. What does this trend in Europe and the West in General? Need to prepare for the return to the past. What does it mean?
This means that the dead are alive grabbed his bony hand. Because the story develops in a spiral, according to the third law of dialectics, G. W. F. Hegel (always forget how to decipher this “G. B. F.”). At the next turn of the spiral we’re a little back in time. But this does not mean that we leave in the past. I uveren that obligasi world with its primacy of ideas and technologies over fixed spheres of influence and borders will win. Of course, after any sudden movement stock up begins to fall for a while, rebound.
— It would seem that after the tragic events that survived Europe in the twentieth century, should be vaccinated against this kind of values.
Still, it’s not the Nazi values, agree.
— Is nationalistic values.
— Yes, it’s nationalistic values, which I do not see anything wrong. It’s a certain isolationism. But if we take the figure of Donald trump, we should not forget that trump is a showman. He is not a politician. The main task of the showman and the basis of his psychology to play a show every day. As mentioned in Voltaire’s “Candide,” Candide had two happiness to see miss Cunegonde and to see her every day. Trump does not always remember today what he said yesterday and doesn’t know what he will say tomorrow. So he can pull off some of their program provisions, if he will take that for him it is essential. And if trump would back off a little from his dominant line, with which he performed in the framework of the campaign, it would follow to a certain extent, and Europe, and the winds will be blowing in the other direction. It is already happening.
Trump, for example, threatened to stop supporting South Korea and Japan forced to pay for their military bases. However, the first visit to these countries, Minister of defense of Mattis showed that it is not, and Vice versa obliczenia line will be continued and deepened, as discussed in the late Soviet period of our history.
Don’t need too literally to understand showman. Trump has achieved a high degree of political art in the sense of matarani. I believe that the future is etaireia, which implies that it is impossible to define exactly say you’re serious or not. I can’t even define yourself. Trump moves to the top of macaroni, and I’m not sure that a return to the past is so radical.
— The question about our trump or the French “quasitron” marine Le Pen, which was loved by the Russian state media before began to love françois Fillon, who won the primaries of the right. As her figure corresponds with trump and with a tendency to populism? She showwomen?
— It is much less marginal than her father, God grant him health. In this sense, even if it wins I don’t expect a complete disaster. Still, I suppose that she will win the first round. In the second — loses. But in this sense, force withdrawal of the Fillon from the election could lead to absolutely unpredictable increase of votes of marine Le Pen. Just as a sign of protest against the elites. Because the macron is She de la She, a typical representative of the ruling elite. And as shown and Brickset, and the election trump, he antielitnye protest, regardless of its ideological colour, is an important motive for the vote. As if to spit in the face. “Oh, how I want to embarrass their gaiety / And boldly throw them into the eyes of the iron verse / Drenched with bitterness and anger”. Poet of the withdrawal of the Fillon may yet come back to haunt in the second round.
— At the end I propose to go to your favorite category “Predictions from Stanislav Belkovsky”. We write our readers: “Stanislav, it does not change your opinion about the prophecy in the Zoroastrian calendar for March 2017?”. We reached this milestone.
— First, March of the Zoroastrian horoscope starts on the 21st. Secondly, my attitude to Zoroastrian horoscope has not changed. But I want to emphasize that all responsibility for this forecast are the responsibility of the prophet Zarathustra.
— You remove yourself from responsibility?
— I did not place. I was only the translator of this point of view. If the forecast comes true, the process of “the people vs. Zarathustra” will be an important legal event of the year.
— Where such a process can be considered?
Of course, first in the petty-bourgeois court of Moscow, because this prognosis was related primarily to Russia. But I still stand by my: at the end of March should be characterized by big political cycle of Russian history. But this does not mean that some important events happen right at the end of March. In late March, will lay the foundations for such events. And when shot these basics when the roots are to be converted to tops, we will soon see.
— And if to speak about the future of Europe? This year we are experiencing a period of turbulence. Elections in France in spring and summer, elections in Germany in September. Do you expect that Europe, too, will change and finally collapses, as some very ardent supporters of Vladimir Putin are awaiting that Europe will collapse under the weight of its own problems.
— Supporters all the time predict the collapse of the dollar twice a year. And it’s not crashing and not crashing. No, I think Europe will not collapse in any case. Its the centripetal force much stronger than the centrifugal, and common interests are much more important than the private. UK’s exit means only one thing: that the UK never wanted to be in Europe. It’s bringing the formal to the actual. Britain could not submit to Germany. Therefore, the creation of the European Union with the informal leadership of Germany and without trying the UK is the leadership challenge — quite logical and natural thing. But this, I think the whole story ends.
How many talked about the fact that Greece will leave the EU and will replace the Euro to the drachma. Even my favorite Nobel laureate in Economics Paul Krugman argued that the replacement of the Euro to the drachma is almost solved. But none of this happened. Not going to happen, regardless of any isolationist nuances and populist slogans under which these or those politicians can come to power. Even if Angela Merkel will lose and come to power, Martin Schulz, SPD, Martin Schulz, no less evrointegrator than Angela Merkel. As for the attitude to Russia, Martin Schulz allowed himself something that Angela Merkel is not allowed. He publicly was photographed in one the podium with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, not fearing the avenging hands of the Kremlin and the fate of Kim Jong-Nam. Someone does not understand, he will understand, says Ramzan Kadyrov.
Therefore, despite these fluctuations, as mentioned Ortega y Gasset, in his famous work “Spineless Spain”, all the wars were built in Europe on the principle of “lovers’ tiffs are harmless”.
— We still have one minute. The last question that worries many. If they do impeach Trump, and what role will play the Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak?
— Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak absolutely no role in this plays. If the Ambassador was not Kislyak, and Belkovsky, for example, it would have been the same. Although Kislyak became the absolute principle of the American elite. I even offer Americans a run when Kislyak just walking down the street, what would be the good and the very Dubious, because he’s very dimensional. It would be easier to navigate on foot.
I don’t know if they do impeach Trump. Impeachment is never announced. Nixon left not as a result of impeachment, and the threat of impeachment. Declared impeachment only bill Clinton, but has not finished it to the end. I fully admit it, but here I rely again on their predictions, and two people who definitely, unequivocally and categorically predicted the victory of trump. This is Director Michael Moore of Washington and Professor Alan Lichtman. They claim that trump is not dosidev up to the end of his first term.
But I think that as a showman trump could beat all. He can change his position suddenly, radically and so dramatically that no one expects. They all probably think he as a previous President of the United States, will fight for his position. It will not be for her to fight. Showman plays, there is no content. It can fill itself with any content in any moment and thereby stave off the threat of early fall.
And at the end I want to say and let’s check my prediction on Russian television we will see a lot of stories that Emmanuel macron is gay. As evidence is given the fact his marriage to his high school French teacher, who over his 24 years. Incidentally, at this point, not thinking, not should I go back to my school (I am now unmarried) and not support me thus morally Emmanuel Makron.