According to George Friedman (67), head of the Center for strategic forecasts Geopolitical Futures and the founder of the famous company “Stratfor”, the West overestimates the power of Vladimir Putin.
According to him, the Russian President is good at playing on fear, which is able to impress even when you do not have the ability to go beyond its own rhetoric. In his opinion, Russia is already in decline, but that doesn’t make it any less dangerous in the geopolitical sense.
Folha: what do You think, will Putin to consolidate a buffer zone around its borders, or even go beyond them, despite the fact that his Eurasian Union is illusory?
George Friedman (George Friedman): I Think that the buffer is already there. The conflict in Ukraine is frozen, Western military intervention is minimal, and keep Russian rebels in the East of the country.
As for the Eurasian Union, the Union cripples still not viable. The crisis in energy prices has hit the whole of Central Asia, and Russia.
— Recent developments since the election of Donald trump in the United States and ending with the rise of nationalism in Europe seem to correspond to the Russian rhetoric. Thus, Putin’s window of opportunity, while he tries to find a suitable candidate for his seat in 2018 — unless, of course, it won’t he?
Today we are seeing the resurgence of nationalism in all its forms. But no matter how popular Putin may possess, it will disappear with the crisis.
— Have you compared Russia with Sparta, calling it a weaker opponent than the then Athens, which, however, can win in the contest. The fact that Russia is weak and largely limited to military terms, makes it more dangerous? If You were ethnic Estonians or Latvians, as far as You are concerned about the idea that the NATO trump may not provide protection in your country?
— Russia still has some military power, but it should not be overestimated. Of course, in Latvia it will be enough. But there are the Americans and the Russians are not eager to face them face to face. To invade and defeat the worst of the possible scenarios.
— Although to think about total war is illogical, there are regional powers that rise just on the periphery of the Russian sphere of influence, such as Turkey and Poland. Is there a possibility of a future confrontation?
— If we believe that Russia is experiencing the same crisis, the Soviet Union, we must be willing to think about the insolvency of the Russian Federation. In this case, countries on the periphery to acquire a big role. Aside from the obvious rise of Turkey and Poland. Thus, as in the middle of the 20th century, will be a change of major powers. As declined United Kingdom, collapsed Germany and Japan. This is normal.
— As far as the West is guilty in the Russian rhetoric?
— Rhetoric is rhetoric. It is used to influence public opinion inside the country and abroad, and to threaten, you must have something threatening. Russia raises threat since the Ukrainian regime change in 2014, but just that she was doing all this time.