The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), commented on the recent weakening of the hryvnia, the press service of the regulator. So, the Deputy head of the national Bank Oleg Churiy explained the rise of the dollar, in particular, and the psychological factor.
“On economic agents presses the negative experience of previous years, when foreign exchange market was characterized by a marked seasonality,” said Curi.
According to the Deputy head of the NBU on the currency market of Ukraine there has been a “certain seasons”, but the introduction of a floating exchange rate and economic recovery now can be expected to reduce seasonal fluctuations.
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“Traditional fall factors play a much smaller role. For example, “Naftogaz of Ukraine” has sufficient foreign exchange earnings and is not putting pressure on the foreign exchange market with large one-time purchases. The Ministry of Finance reimburses the business VAT is already more evenly, rather than one-time payments of large sums during the month. In addition, autumn is the time of the foreign exchange proceeds from exports of the new crop,” – said Cure.
Deputy controller recalled that the NBU maintains a presence in the foreign exchange market to repay too strong fluctuations.
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Recall that under the baseline scenario, Ukraine’s first three-year Budget resolution, in 2017, the average annual hryvnia exchange rate is projected at 27.8 million UAH/USD., in 2018 on the $ 29.3 UAH/USD., in 2019 – 30.5 UAH/USD. and in 2020 – 31 UAH/USD.
The experts at the end of the year give different predictions: in the Razumkov Centre promise a course in the area of 27 hryvnia in the second half, and Concorde Capital assume that at the end of this year the dollar will cost 28,5 hryvnia.
- For 2015, the hryvnia depreciated by halffor 2016 devalued by 12.9%, and for the first half of 2017 strengthened against the dollar by 4%;
- According to the “big Mac index”, the dollar in Ukraine has to cost a little more than 8 UAH;
- The historical maximum the official rate of the dollar – 30.01 UAH. – was made in Feb 2015. The historical maximum of the Euro – 34,04 UAH.
