In Ukraine, the official dollar exchange rate reached UAH 26. By the end of this week, experts say, the national currency against the us will drop another 50 cents. To the value of a currency tied to the price of gasoline, imported equipment, apartments, cars and even gas. The website “Today” figured out how to change the hryvnia exchange rate this week and what it might affect.
How and why falling hryvnia
The period of strengthening of the hryvnia is over. For several weeks the national currency devalues smoothly. So, last week, the hryvnia has lost its value yet at 1.3 percent a week earlier to 2.4%. This devaluation, experts believe, will not stop. If in the summer the dollar was sold in 25.5 – 26 hryvnia, in September, topped at 26 USD.
“At the beginning of the week we expect continuation of growth of the dollar. The official exchange rate of the dollar and its value on the interbank market can rise into the range 26,1-26,4 hryvnia, and the cash dollar might be quoted approximately 26.3/26,5 hryvnia”, – says senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub.
“At the beginning of the week we expect continuation of growth of the dollar. The official exchange rate of the dollar and its value on the interbank market can rise into the range 26,1-26,4 hryvnia, and the cash dollar might be quoted approximately 26.3/26,5 hryvnia”, – says senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub.
Executive Director of the International Bleyzer Foundation Oleg Ustenko also believes that the hryvnia in the near future devaluation. Experts agree in opinion that soon the exchange rate will step over a psychological mark in 27 hryvnia. In September begins the period of active loan payments, the preparation for the heating season and growing business activity. But big jumps this week should be expected.
It is worth noting that autumn is traditionally the rate has been falling for several years. If NBU artificially maintained currency, budgeted for this year, the indicators failed. From the rate of the hryvnia, including on volumes of export earnings and GDP growth, says Oleg Ustenko.
Economic reason for a sharp devaluation is also no. First, the external conjuncture on commodity markets remains favorable for Ukraine, and secondly, the ratio of demand and supply in the market is also stable.
That may change of course soon
From the dollar in the first place depend on the prices of imported goods. As told “Today,” former economy Minister Viktor Suslov, in proportion with the dollar rising prices for imported food, equipment. For example, if now expensive imported wine is 2600 hryvnas, after the price increase rate by 10%, the same bottle would be sold already at 2860 hryvnia.
Also the rate is tied to the prices of apartments and cars.
“The whole secondary market ischislyaetsya in dollars. But this does not mean that if the dollar goes up, the market will blossom. On the contrary. We the past few years watched as the market fell due to jumps of the dollar. Prices in UAH are growing, but the dollar must be reduced. Therefore, the market is stable, even still, shows a decline,” – says Kiev realtor Maxim Baborak.
“The whole secondary market ischislyaetsya in dollars. But this does not mean that if the dollar goes up, the market will blossom. On the contrary. We the past few years watched as the market fell due to jumps of the dollar. Prices in UAH are growing, but the dollar must be reduced. Therefore, the market is stable, even still, shows a decline,” – says Kiev realtor Maxim Baborak.
About a quarter of the consumer basket – imported goods, including energy. Therefore, after the devaluation of the inevitable increase in the rate of inflation. Note, the national Bank predicted this year’s inflation at around eight percent, with a possible error of two percentage points. The majority of experts agree that the level of inflation at the end of this year will reach 12%. By the way, according to Finance Minister Alexander Danilyuk, by 2020, inflation in Ukraine will be reduced to 5%.
The value of the dollar affects the price of gasoline. According to the ex-President of the Association of oil market operators Leonid Kosyanchuk, experts have long brought dependence: the dollar becomes more expensive by 10 cents, and gasoline behind him – seven cents. This dependence is explained by the dependence of the Ukrainian market of light petroleum products from imports. Almost 85% of gasoline Ukraine buys abroad. Moreover, taxes must be paid in foreign currency – the Euro. So the worse he feels, the hryvnia, the higher should be the prices at gas stations. So, if the hryvnia exchange rate will jump to 28 hryvnia, after two weeks of gasoline A95 will rise from 25 to 26.5 UAH per liter.
