The Egyptian Parliament has unanimously approved sending the military potential of the country to perform combat missions outside Egypt. Also the Egyptian state TV announced the official start of the coordination with the Libyan leadership in the coming days.
After some time in Cairo awaiting the speech of President Abd al-Fattah Al-Sisi. The intervention of Egypt to the situation in Libya it seems is inevitable. And hardly talking about a short pleasure trip.
Earlier in the Egyptian capital has stated that Egypt has such a right, but legally it is issued only now — first Parliament of Libya in Tobruk has declared that he is not against the use of the Egyptian army in Libya against foreign aggression and sent to Cairo a formal request, and then based on this invitation, the Egyptian Parliament has now given official approval for Al-Sisi.
Unexpectedly intervened in the situation in Algeria. It became known that he had embarked on the deployment of missile complexes “Iskander” on the borders with Libya, and also expressly stated that “any attack on Libya will be regarded as an attack on Algeria.”
And if you add to this that the national consensus government (NTC) of Libya, the head of which is the Faiz Sarraj, preparing to attack the forces of the Libyan national army (LNA) field Marshal Khalifa the Haftarot to retake the strategic city of Sirte — it becomes obvious that a large military fire in North Africa could erupt in the coming days, if not hours.
The decision of the Parliament in Cairo in which he gives the “green light” to the foreign operations of the Egyptian army against the “criminal militias” and “foreign terrorist group”, quite understandable. Moreover, it has several motifs, among which one should mention the presence of friendly forces in the problematic Egyptian-Libyan border, access to the hydrocarbon fields in the region.
Well and, importantly, Cairo is absolutely not averse to finally get your prize from the fact that a neighboring state with which the Egyptians fought until the armed conflict since the days of Gaddafi, lies in agony — even if it is the territory of several local clans under Egyptian protectorate, albeit small, but still a step towards “revival of the great of Egypt” than the dream of a local military circles and of the national bourgeoisie, leading the joint business with the army.
As expected in Egypt, an armed invasion from two to three mechanized and armored brigades, with the support of attack helicopters and air force — should fix the new status quo that emerged after the defeat of the Haftarot forces Saraga near Tripoli. New line delineating the two opposing forces will be held in the coastal Sirte.
Since the capture of this city by troops of the NTC and their Turkish allies will make the situation of the Haftarot almost hopeless, as the Sirte — a key city of the coast, controlling a significant part of the oil exports to the East.
It’s simple — whoever controls Sirte, who controls two-thirds of the supply of Libyan oil. And having lost its ally of Egypt, field Marshal of the Haftarot, became a desert chieftain, as he can’t contain his armies. That’s such a simple situation, forcing Cairo to go to direct intervention.
The Egyptian side is confident that all “cards” on its side: and logistics operations in Libya are not in favor of Turkey, and the probability that Ankara would receive the support of NATO allies is extremely low, while France and Greece certainly will block a collective decision in support of Turkey and is likely to support the actions of Egypt, than Erdogan.
But on the other scale — a lingering presence in Libya, which is a collision with the local patriots, the delight of the Egyptian “liberators” they should not expect a head-on collision with Turkey and a heavy burden for the budget, and without experiencing serious problems.
The situation in the region is tense to the limit, but the strategic initiative is still… Erdogan. It is in his hands now the key to the relative peace in North Africa, and that it will solve — that’s Erdogan to decide — whether we will see the next stabilization phase of the Libyan conflict, or the desire of Ankara to Sirte and the Cyrenaica oil will overcome the instinct of self-preservation and will lead to a new war in the region.