Now no one is aware of the reality that exists in the world economy and which will develop in the next year or two. Nobody understands whatever they said. Even the all-knowing IMF constantly degrades their forecasts, because it does not understand anything and just reflect on deteriorating.
The latest IMF forecast — this year, world GDP will fall by 4.9 percent. The size of the economy, equal to the GDP of Germany. That is, this year will disappear all of Germany! But it could be just two Germany. Because no one knows how long the pandemic, how it will be in the future and, most importantly, how will billions of people: whether they fly planes, ride trains, walk to restaurants, relax in the resorts, to visit universities, go to the hospital, to go to the gym, etc. It’s unpredictable.
But one thing I can say for sure. No return of the economy to what it was at the end of 2019, as many policy makers and economists expect and predict, of course not. There will be no, as many predict, V – or L – models out of the crisis. It’s all a naive transfer of the regularities of cyclical crisis on the crisis caused by the pandemic. This is an attempt to compare the green sour.
What will happen in the future with the world economy, nobody knows. All projections for period longer than 3 months is ridiculous. The IMF prediction for the next three years, just lighten up and looks ridiculous.
Intuitively, I feel that the world and primarily the Western economy, is in a completely new qualitative state. The Western economy to covid-19 were all leveraged on the ears and choked in debt, the interest rate was at zero.
And how will she survive if half of the businesses, restaurants, cafes, clubs will now be able to load and 50% of their capacity? Half of the economy will be unprofitable and in 1-1,5 years will begin the process of bankruptcy — first businesses, and then the financial sector.
I think that within 5-6 years of the world’s GDP “lose weight” by 25-30%. And that, you know, it will be a different world. Here is my prediction, or rather feeling.
And most importantly, the United States, of course, will emerge from the crisis through war. Just another way the US can not, for them it is the cheapest and fastest way. America is the only country on the planet that can afford to get out of the crisis through war.