Obozrevatel (Ukraine): Ukraine between the Elevator and the trampoline

A week ago, we enthusiastically watched the launch, Elon musk, and thus, thanks to the Internet, witnessed the first day of a new historical epoch.

Of course, we first enjoyed the aspect of the change era, having the opportunity to gloat over our neighbor-an aggressor: the successful annexation of a small Peninsula cost him in the end not only of Parmesan, but no less complete, of the whole era of the Russian space. The era that began with Gagarin’s “let’s Go!” ended with the words of Elon musk: “the Trampoline works!”.

It would seem that the point set and add nothing, but Putin’s postmodern parody of the Soviet Union managed to add the last grotesque touch — now in the new Russian elevators at the beginning of the movement will turn on a tape recording of the voice of Yuri Gagarin, and the “space” the way from the first floor to the third or ninth, will be accompanied by the “left.” Well, “arrived.”

Against this background completely legal malice we have paid much less attention by new era, the opportunities it opens, and not have to think about our place in the new world that is born on the eyes. Meanwhile, it is surprisingly more than “peace in space without Muscovites”, it is a qualitatively new stage of development of humanity — more precisely, that part of humanity that is able to see this new world and time to invest in it.

Start Crew Dragon does not only mean the end of Russian space Agency — it is primarily the end of the monopoly of the state as an institution for the development of near-earth space. Indeed, NASA is the customer of the start — but by this order is a 100% private company, as well as from NASA, it will take an order for a flight from any other company. Into space for the first time, a private business — and this means that now his development will accelerate exponentially, and with the memory of our people will land on Mars and other planets, and the resources of the moon and asteroids will become an important part of the economy.

In history this has happened. In 16-17 centuries the country was divided into those that assisted local business owners to outfit ships in India and recently opened a New Light, and those who were digging in his garden and missed such “exotic” possibilities, considering them “projects”. The consequences of those choices almost completely determine the picture of the modern world —just a couple of exceptions, namely those countries who dare to make a bet on the “exotic”, now in the twenty-first century are the world leaders, or “Golden billion”. And inside they also have a richer and more successful than others, and if you look closely, those are the countries where the absorption of “India” was farmed out to private investors, although with the active assistance of the state, and the relative outsiders — the country in which the monarchy held a monopoly on foreign expansion and had “crown”, not a merchant “lower layer”. Nothing like?

Now Elon musk has got the same role that once Christopher Columbus — be the first who will open a fundamentally new window of opportunity for first hundreds, then thousands, and soon millions of other people. The parallel with Columbus like specially enhanced by the details of the biography — Mask, which is destined to become a symbol of the cosmic greatness of America, was born in South Africa, as well as Columbus, which led to the world the greatness of Spain, was born in Italy. I don’t for the sake of historical curiosity focuses attention on the Parallels — it’s about the fact that all of the potential “Columba” and “mask” in the modern world have the ability to easily leave the countries which are not ambitious enough and modern and will go to open their “India” from the banks of those countries that will be ready to provide a platform for their launch — and will continue to develop and will enrich these countries.

While we are vigorously discussing such “important” things like taskbar (idiocy) the next MP or tricks someone of the pop glitterati, the world is changing rapidly. The world stands on the shore and looks like professionals built the latest “caravels of Columbus” — “the Falcon” and “Dragony”. We’ve seen floated in the sky the first Caravel — so from day to day will go to fleets. And we still have a chance to be among the selected countries — the creators of a new era. Or to repeat the experience of our ancestors, our cozy island missed the start of Columbus and for centuries was among the outsiders.

Somehow, among a large number of news about the launch of the Mask is almost no mention of the fact that Elon operates in a tight competitive environment, among very successful competitors are Ukrainians. Contracts from NASA on different types of space launches won’t just SpaceX, but also eight private companies, including California Firefly businessman from the Dnieper max Polyakov. Half of the production capacity of the company is stationed in the States, but half — in the river (plus related companies in Kiev). “Our Elon Musk” has not yet made a final choice, and tries to be a Ukrainian businessman in the American market, and not “Americans of Ukrainian descent”, despite the fact that to repeat the path of Ilona and the “score to his home “Africa”, Oh how, is easier… But who can say how many Ukrainians at least have heard the name of the Poles? No, of course Queen of the night Olga Polyakov know millions, but we’re here about the space…

We haven’t missed your chance to be among the first, not to catch up with the last car of another train. There are lively and active Poles, is half-dead, but with the supply of technology and personnel, Yuzhmash and the design Bureau of design Bureau. Musk believes the best missile after his “Falcon” is our “Zenith”. Among the few positives of “green printer” finally adopted a law that opens space for private companies (there are still a number of anachronisms, lobbied state “monsters of the Soviet space”, but in General it’s the breakthrough achieved at least fifteen years). Therefore, the chance is still there — but not for long. We are now included in the new space “La Conquista” (the period of conquest and colonization that closely tied to the Great geographical discoveries — approx. transl.), or again left behind, once in the colonial pursuit. Start Crew Dragon is a shot gun start, the chase has begun and the countdown for us for the right to be among the first to go high for a couple of years, not decades; but the results of this race will determine our place in the world for at least the next century.

Should critically our previous space failures, the bankruptcy of Sea launch and the failure of an ambitious project in Brazil, and to draw the main conclusion on the distribution of functions between the government and the private sector in the space industry. The state should not itself to remain a player in the space services market — it is obviously not a player in this market, bureaucracies, by definition, always lose private, where we are talking about commercialization.

On the contrary — the state must act as a buyer of services in the space of our private companies, for the same model, which NASA buys services Mask, guarantor loans when these companies on the world market with the goal of providing these companies with equal conditions of access to credit and to market. Also, the state should provide the Ukrainian companies the opportunity to obtain and improve previously developed at the expense of taxpayers technology — because they are the most powerful start-up capital, from which Ukraine may start as a participant in space “conquest”.

But the main thing — our political elite and our media needs to learn to raise their heads a little higher off the ground and see over a starry sky. To see him not as a decoration on the roof, and like new huge market, as a treasure of countless resources, the battle for the distribution of which is just beginning — and where we are still able to stake a claim for our children and grandchildren a place among the future “Golden billion”. We are still able to jump on the trampoline Mask, but this should be done today — otherwise you will be stuck in the old broken Elevator with a phonograph voice of Gagarin.