As the IMF money will affect the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine: forecast

The national Bank will be able to significantly increase foreign exchange reserves

Soon, as expected, Ukraine will receive the first tranche under the new loan agreement with the International monetary Fund (IMF). Except that the money will reduce the budget deficit, they will open to Ukraine the opportunity to get assistance from other international partners. This situation indirectly will have an impact on the exchange rate, the President of investment group “Univer” Taras Kozak.

“That is for next month, foreign exchange reserves of the NBU will grow by at least 3-4 billion UAH. And it will be a factor that will also play on the strengthening of the hryvnia” – says Kozak.

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However, according to experts, it will not lead to excessive strengthening of the hryvnia. At least the dollar is at a 23 or 24 UAH in the summer of last year, in the near future we are unlikely to see.

“If the money passed through the interbank market, that is listed in the budget through the interbank market, then the dollar could very quickly go down to 23 UAH. But since it will be a bilateral agreement, I don’t think that will be a direct impact of the money on the course. However, it may be a tangential, indirect impact. The more foreign exchange reserves, the hryvnia stronger. Banks and many people understand that dollars is a lot of what they came to us for a long time – 5 to 7 years, some loans for 10 years. In addition, the balance of payments of Ukraine is now positive. That is, in Ukraine now receives more dollars than goes beyond it. Exporters of worked, and import a few people wanted. Because Department stores have been closed, import very few were sold. In the second quarter, by the end of June, I think, the balance of payments will be even better. Because the IT sector works, agricultural companies export their products, iron ore, too bad the price is now on the world market. Perhaps it is now less sold, but the price is good. Therefore, the inflow of foreign currency into the country will be good, and displayed currency will be significantly less,” explains Kozak.