Forbes (USA): Russian economy due to the coronavirus found themselves in a worse situation than expected

According to experts of the company “Fitch” (Fitch), economic losses in Russia will be not such serious, as in Brazil, Italy, Spain or France, however, will still be more serious than expected.

Russian GDP will shrink this year by 5%. Experts of the company “Fitch” originally it was believed that the pandemic is in the early stages it is reduced by 3.3% on the background of rather weak economic indicators. Therefore, will not be enough next year to compensate for the loss of the current year. Experts “Fitch” I think the growth could be only 3%, and that means Russia only in 2022 will be able to recover after only three months of a forced break in the work of the economy in 2020.

Like almost every other country, Russia has imposed draconian measures in order to hide from the coronavirus and straighten the curve of growth of infection. Currently, the regime of self-isolation in Moscow gradually abolished, however, the curve of infections in the country as a whole was able only to reach a plateau. This indicator is not yet in a phase of sharp slowdown, as evidenced by the data and graphs presented to the specialists of Johns Hopkins University (Johns Hopkins University).

According to forecasts, the Russian ruble further weakens.

According to experts of the company “Fitch”, for one dollar by the end of the year will be given 72 rubles. Today one dollar is worth 70 rubles. The last time the ruble was so weak in February 2016.

The Russian economic development Ministry also expects to reduce the country’s economy by 5% this year, including a reduction of 9.5% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year. If the isolation mode is canceled, and the Russians are actively out of the house, in this case, economic growth will return next year. According to Russian official forecasts, the growth of the economy in 2022 and 2023 will be more than 3%. These numbers may not seem very high, but for the most part the last two years economic growth in Russia amounted to only half of these values.

The weakening ruble forced the index exchange-traded Fund VanEck Russia (RSX) to fall by about 300 basis points. The ruble has fallen by 14.4% this year. Price quotes VanEck Russia (RSX) declined by 17.3% mainly due to the weak ruble.

Indicators of the Russian stock exchanges lag behind the index emerging markets MSCI Emerging Markets Index since, as oil prices collapsed, and Russia has surpassed all the major countries of Western Europe in the number of infections with coronavirus. Today she is in third place on this indicator, ahead of only the United States and Brazil.

Last month the Russian business has lost 4.3 million jobs, higher than that of March (3.5 million). The unemployment rate now stands at approximately 5.8%, and this figure seems incredibly low, as in the United States is around 16%.

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin declared Wednesday that the city is ready to the “second stage” of the removal of restrictions, which will begin on 1 June. Will be open of providers of car sharing, as well as small shops, dry cleaning and Shoe shops.

Next week residents, including the elderly, will be allowed to walk and play sports. Parks will be open on a rotating schedule — no more than three times a week, and this is done to minimize the risk of the second wave. The city’s residents to wear protective masks in city parks and on the streets.

Social distancing, quarantine and other rules will be in effect in Moscow until June 14.

Since the end of February, more than 370 thousand people were infected in Russia by the SARS coronavirus. More than 142 thousand recovered. Today, more people get better after an illness than infected. The number of deaths amounted to 4061 people, and this means that Russia has the world’s lowest mortality rates from this disease.