In Ukraine is rapidly rising automotive gas: why and what will happen next

Liquefied automobile gas (LPG gas) becomes less beneficial to motorists because of their prices – over the past week it has risen on average from 3 UAH/l or more than 25%, reaching UAH 14/l brand And some operators even put on stelae a price tag of $ 14.99 UAH/liter! Drivers swore, but still was filled up as on gas while driving is still cheaper than gasoline, despite the higher flow.

According to experts of the fuel market, the reasons for rising prices – the fuel shortage due to mass transfer drivers on LPG-gas and repair stop several of the main suppliers of gas to Ukraine. Forecasts are disappointing: in the next 2-3 weeks is possible as gas shortages and further increase prices up to 15 UAH/l and above.

Retail prices for liquefied gas will grow due to big supply shortages caused by a number of unfavorable factors, according to the “Consulting group A-95”. From 1 July to 17 August, the wholesale price of propane-butane grew by 63% and exceeded UAH 24000/t – an absolute record for all history of observations.
According to analyst, “A-95” Artem Kuyun, the cost of gas at the border during this period has doubled, due to acute shortage of resources: “We estimate the gas deficit of 30 thousand tonnes, which is about 20% of the monthly needs of the market in this period.”

Quickly to replace the missing gas volumes will fail. Key manufacturers of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are themselves experiencing shortages due to maintenance works at plants that have already led to the disappearance of free volumes in the market throughout Eastern Europe, particularly Poland. Import from the Western direction is also complicated infrastructure limitations – the necessity of rearrangement of cars from narrow gauge to broad.

Market participants also noted significant delays in the movement of wagons on the territory of Ukraine, especially in Odessa region.

“Due to the lack of locomotives and the delivery of wagons for loading to Romania and back takes about 40 days to work with as the shoulder is very risky and expensive,” – says Kuiun. According to him, the low turnover of cars is also not possible to expand the efficient delivery of gas with the sea, where today the price is much lower than in Ukraine.

An additional factor in the destabilization of the supply may be a change in the licensing requirements of transport fuels. Regulatory authorities have already announced that from September 1 will require a license, but most companies do not have time to execute the necessary documents.

“Consulting group A-95” predicts that the gas shortage will continue until mid-September. This will encourage high prices in the opt, and, consequently, in retail. Based on the level of wholesale price 24000 UAH per ton, the retail price of autogas reached range 14,5-14,7 UAH/liter.

“High prices and the end of driving season will reduce the demand for gas will be restored at the same time the supply of imports, which will stabilize the market and lead to lower prices,” said Kuyun.

With forecasts Kuiun agree, the independent expert Leonid kosyanchuk. The only limiting factor for further price growth may be economic: estimated Kosyanchuk, if the cost of a liter of LPG-gas gas will reach 60% of the cost of a liter of diesel, petrol drive becomes more profitable because of the increased gas consumption by 15-20%, depending on, what the generation equipment installed on the vehicle.

A simple calculation shows that the current average price for gasoline a-95 is equal to 24.9 UAH/l, the maximum price per liter of LPG gas at which it will buy, is 15 UAH/l, i.e. the limit is almost reached. The expert predicts that in September the price of liquefied gas will return to half of the average price for a half-liter of A-95, or 12-12,5 grn/l, max.