The anniversary of the battle of Warsaw reminded us who is and will continue to be a strategic enemy of Poland. However, in our foreign policy, Russia seems to have reduced in size: attention from it was distracted by a dispute with the European Union and the prospect of claims of Germany. But this is just a small family argument, which in any case should not relax our attention to the East.
If we are destined to one day face a threat that will jeopardize our independence, it will come from there, not from progressive European elites, or George Soros. To deal with the threat prevention should be every day, including through strengthening and not weakening the EU and NATO.
There is no security
The Polish government has made great strides in the diplomatic protection of Poland. It joined the EU and NATO, which created the plan for the defense of our country. We have a NATO battalion and the American troops. NATO refused forwarding the strategy to refocus on the defence of its members, and began to conduct large-scale exercises, where practiced conventional military action. Our southern and Western border can be called secure.
Unfortunately, we began to consider all this for granted, but in the end the Polish strategic activity lost its role of guarantee of the security of the state. However, about the safety can not speak: Poland remains a front-line state facing the danger from the North (Baltic sea, Kaliningrad oblast), East (Belarus) and the South-East.
The last direction is a friendly Ukraine, but its state is not tenable. We have not created a military capacity for effective self-defense, and the U.S. military presence is not permanent, in five or ten years, the Americans can leave. EU changing their appearance, and we are less able to affect the form of the organization.
The newest (and only) Polish strategic concept was the “Initiative of the three seas”. It is an economic project, and if it take root, to give it a more effective political format, you will need a couple of decades. Otherwise, if we refer to naval terminology, there is complete calm: there are no initiatives and no concepts. We are on the spot, and that means moving backwards. It is the fault of politicians in General, not just the ruling camp. Why can’t we hear ideas about the Eastern policy of the opposition?
The Visegrad group was education, did not pass the stage of its formation, the Weimar triangle remains purely theoretical Union, and relations with Ukraine deteriorated on the background of historical policy of Kiev, which is engaged in the glorification of the OUN-UPA (banned in the Russian organizations — approx. ed.). How to stop this process, the ideas we have. What to do with Belarus after a failed attempt to deploy it in the West, we don’t know. Meanwhile, are approaching large-scale exercises, after which on the territory of Belarus can stay of the Russian troops. From political activity in Moldova, Poland refused.
Plans to leave Poland for the us military, we have too. The fundamental the German direction a breath of cold. Where calm, careful calculations of how far can we go in promoting “politics of dignity” without weakening the European Union, and thereby the security of Poland? And finally, do we have any kind of concept about Georgia and Caucasus?
The trap of self-sufficiency
The sails of the Polish strategic thought helplessly hang on, and the tide carried us into dangerous waters dreams of political self-sufficiency, to achieve that we have no means. We become easy prey for predators. Factors who defended Poland in the last decade the EU’s passive policy of Russia, democratic reforms in all the Eastern camp — not anymore. It is time to propose bold initiatives to strengthen Western institutions and re-start their March to the East. Its initiator must be Poland.
“March or die” — reads the slogan of the Foreign Legion. Even mercenaries know that inaction is threatened with imminent death. And we continue to stand still.
