What happens after Mosul?

The Prime Minister of Iraq al-Abadi, declared the liberation of Mosul from ISIS (banned in Russia — approx. ed.). What’s next? Your opinion on this subject in an interview with BirGün was expressed by Professor of the Department of international relations University Atilim, Dr. Hasan ünal (Hasan Ünal), associate Professor of the Department of international relations, University of Ahi Evran Erkmen, Serhat (Serhat Erkmen), journalist Ozugurlu Musa (Musa Özuğurlu).


ISIS was a strategic project, she had completed her mission

BirGün: Prime Minister of Iraq al-Abadi, declared the liberation of Mosul. What will happen to Iraq then?

Hasan Unal: In the future, the most important issue is the decision Barzani (Barzani) on the referendum. Whether Barzani insist on this decision and, if so, whether he will take steps towards independence? In this case we will ensure the territorial integrity of Iraq, the reaction of the Iraqi Central government and the other countries in the region, especially Turkey? These are very important issues for Iraq in the near future. Barzani is one of those who benefited most from the operation on clearing Mosul from ISIS. In Iraq and Syria ISIS as if there was no accident, and was generated deliberately, intentionally. This organisation, grown out of the Syrian swamp, seems to have professionally managed. As a result of territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria were broken, and there have been initiatives to establish a Kurdish state. For this purpose and was used by the LIH, it deliberately tried to imagine stronger than it is.

Through this organization those who are at war with it, namely the Peshmerga in Iraq and the forces of the Party “Democratic Union” (PYD) in Syria, the Western countries from the very beginning openly gave weapons. This was done in the name of fighting the civilized world under the pretext of “They are struggling with the organization of medieval barbarians, we must help them.” But in 2014 it was clear that it would be. On the attack Thursday was not known Wednesday, as we like to say, on Monday.

— How this situation will affect the civil war in Syria?

You can’t say that the liberation of Mosul will have any great influence on the course of events in Syria. There are the militants who fled from Mosul, which was allowed to escape, and those pretty much as expected. It was alleged that they at some point went into Raqqa. But gone or not? Very interesting and America’s relationship with ISIS. Sometimes, States have made efforts to ensure that ISIS was defeated. And sometimes allegedly fighting with ISIS. We can’t know the details, but as far as can be judged from the outside, ISIL has completed its Affairs in Iraq. Thanks to Barzani, ISIL seized Kirkuk and a large part of Mosul. Now he goes to independence.

— As the absence of al-Baghdadi, who allegedly was killed affect the organization?

Now ISIS is already fighting for survival. Although its strength, impact, potential distribution always was exaggerated. This was done for strategic reasons. At the moment, ISIS seems largely completed its mission. Apparently, in Iraq and in Syria it was to provide a partition of the state into three parts. ISIS is not so much can be done.


It was convenient organization, it can occur in other places

BirGün: What awaits the region after the liberation of Mosul?

Ozugurlu Moussa: Iraq will face two major problems. The first is the referendum. The most important item on the agenda in Iraq after the liberation of Mosul will be a referendum on independence to be held in September. Previously it was about the number of transactions concluded between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi Central government. But now after the adoption of Barzani’s decision on the referendum is unknown how the situation will develop in connection with this auction. The Central government does not approve of this whole process and making the issue of independence to a referendum. At the same time, of course, the situation inside Iraq and in the region Barzani still not fully clear. Therefore attention will be focused on this region and, most likely, subsequent events will be associated with Iraqi Kurdistan.


© RIA Novosti RIA Novosti | go to fotomancer Kurdish autonomy in Northern Iraq Massoud Barzani. Archive photo

And the second problem?

The second challenge for Iraq may be “Hashd SHAABI”. Today was published the statement of the Minister of foreign Affairs of the UAE. He congratulated the Iraqi government to liberate Mosul from ISIS, but said: “We also want Stripping “Hashd SHAABI” and other related Iranian organizations”. Probably, he says this on behalf of Gulf countries, namely UAE, Saudi Arabia, of course, and others. Gulf countries are likely to put pressure on Iraq regarding “Hashd SHAABI”: since the end of ISIS, “Hashd SHAABI” is also nothing more to do in Iraq.

It is very important how ISIS will do next, and what will be its function. Because after this defeat in Mosul at the turn — raqqa. In raqqa ISIS too, will be finished no matter who will take the city under their control, the United States, “the Democratic forces of Syria” or the Syrian army, and the organization will not remain a space where she can move. Alternative to ISIS in Syria will only Deir-ez-Zor and areas that are a little lower and closer to the Iraqi border along the Euphrates river. Thus, LIH is finally cornered.

In this case, the defeat in Mosul does not mean the end of ISIS!

— After the capture of Mosul defeat ISIS in raqqa — the question is almost solved. It is an inevitable situation from the point of view of ISIS. We can say that this region and the ISIS is finished. What ISIS will do next? On the one hand, it can be destroyed in one place, as happened in Iraq, but also occur in some other place. This is also need to watch. ISIS may appear in some other countries, such as Libya, maybe Yemen. I say this only as a probability. Because ISIS is an organization that ultimately serves a particular purpose. It is an organization that is used by all, and we don’t know who and where in the process this global fight ISIS uses in the future. Therefore, the liberation of Mosul will probably entail some new events on both a regional and global scale.

— How this situation will affect Syria?

— The main and perhaps the only trump card the US presence in Syria was ISIS. This is the only reason the basis. What will happen after the capture of Raqqa after ISIS will be relegated to the desert regions, isolated or completely destroyed? After ISIS in areas of Idlib, Daraa, Quneitra in Syria, the situation one way or another will develop in the direction of settlement. In fact, this kind of organization is not so important for the United States and other players, but they are used as an element of political pressure.

— How this situation will affect the Kurds?

— In the future of the Kurdish issue will become the main issue in Syria. What will be the situation of the Kurds? Will we have political or administrative autonomy, is unknown. UN special envoy de Mistura said: “the Kurds must also participate in the creation of a new Constitution of Syria”. Of course this situation will affect Turkey because the voice is already started at the UN level. Previously it was also told USA. From now on, you want this Turkey or not, we are talking about the Kurdish reality in Syria. This reality creates the perception of a closer threat to Turkey and in this sense concerns us even more than Damascus. What position will the Damascus? Honestly, while it is difficult to understand. Previously there were some signals in that direction that Damascus is not political but administrative autonomy. Recently, however, we see that the people’s protection Units (YPG) supported by the United States are beginning to go beyond the borders of the Kurdish region, which is considered its natural boundaries. So Damascus may respond to this. In this case there is a conflict, but the US and Russia ultimately will achieve rapprochement between the Kurds and Damascus on the basis of administrative autonomy. The agreement which these countries have concluded the South, in a sense, implies this. Therefore, in General, after the departure of LIH, there is only one subject — the Kurds. The rest have no meaning, no “an-Nusra” (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) or other organizations. With them anyway question can be solved.

— How will this affect Turkey?

— We will see it soon. Turkey is not in the best relations with its neighbors. She is pursuing a policy which violates, so to speak, with the “General course.” The latest example of Turkey’s actions against the coalition in the Persian Gulf countries, policies which try to define US. A separate question is whether ISIS and other organizations in the future, used against Turkey.

ISIS may start a guerrilla war

BirGün: What will happen to Iraq after the liberation of Mosul?

Serhat Erkmen: First, we note that the operations still to be fully ended, the security is not provided. In many areas, such as Telafer, there remains the presence of LIH. In the first stage wants to take control of these areas, and in the future they might begin a guerrilla war in Iraq. If you look from the point of view of security, cleaning and liberation of Mosul is a serious blow to ISIS. It was a fortress under the control of the organization, she had a very different effect. The liberation of Mosul is a very important step in the fight against ISIS, but in order to be able to provide security in Iraq, probably, will long continue operations covering different areas of the country. However, Iraq’s future will determine not only the operation to ensure security. Rehabilitation of areas that were in the hands of ISIS, the transformation of these territories into habitable is also an important problem.


— What is required for their solution?

— Iraq, trying to expel ISIS from the occupied areas of the organization, survived the great destruction. For the conversion of these territories into habitable areas need to exercise seriously prepared for projects involving large resources. Most importantly, the necessary truly inclusive democratic regime, otherwise, the country may experience different forms of conflict.

— How these events will affect the civil war in Syria?

— Of course, will affect to a certain extent, but along with the fact that the dynamics of the civil war in Syria is linked to Iraq, the situation is now developing in a different direction. There had been two unions, which were created by the United States and Russia under their leadership. At the moment, the internal dynamics of Syria is more important than civil war in Iraq but if the Iraqi government or groups associated with the government, will be involved in the internal conflict in Iraq at the call of Syria, with the support of Iran and Russia, then it can produce another dynamic effect on what is happening. The impact of this can be seen in Deir-ez-Zor. Events in Deir ezzor, it will affect to a greater extent. In clashes in southern Syria especially not affect.

— As the absence of al-Baghdadi will have an impact on ISIS?

— Anywhere up to the present time with the exception of Russian sources have not reported about it. And that ISIS has confirmed this, said also Russian sources. No one online ISIS is nothing like it. In the other, independent, sources this information is not confirmed. Moreover, if you carefully read these messages, the organization recognized that al-Baghdadi was killed, but no one calls the name of the leader who will replace him. It seems to me that this news is to some extent aimed at the preparation of specific environment. To do something before the situation finally cleared up, wrong. If the organization recognizes the death of al-Baghdadi and inform in any form, it will also need to declare the name of the new leader. Otherwise the organization will face serious problems in their ranks. Why are we skeptical, because previously this kind of message repeatedly occurred, while later it turned out it is not. I therefore believe that the necessary low-key approach.