Niccolo Machiavelli (Niccolò Machiavelli), Secretary of the second Chancellery of Florence during the Renaissance, could be a political adviser at all times. He advised the Governor that in case if he won a victory over the enemy, then the enemy should be destroyed or make a best friend. After the end of the cold war, when the Soviet Union withdrew from the world stage and was replaced by Russia of former times, NATO decided to follow the other Board.
Under U.S. leadership, it expanded eastward to Russia’s borders, not taking into account the feelings of Russia and not including it in the common security system, which is not once hinted at the Russian leadership — “from Vancouver to Vladivostok.”
The expansion of NATO to the East, despite some concerns, was held under the tacit assumption that, if Russia will again gain strength, extended nuclear deterrence made in the US (“made in USA”) could give the desired protection.
But, as in the Western Hasanzadeh had doubts about how good this idea is and durable whether, considering the phantom pain of Russia, the Kremlin sent a reassuring signal that military action will not. To put it briefly, “no nuclear weapons, no troops, no units”.
Calm the Baltic States
This means that there will be no deployment of nuclear weapons, no permanent basing of Western troops, no anti-missile defense long-range. This means the sparse military zone and of NATO, in fact, becomes “empty”: for Russian it’s presence is still too broadly, and for the Baltic States is insufficient.
From time to time crossing the Baltic States, mainly American, military units should signal to the Russians that the West is serious about expanding to the East, and to reassure the Baltic States that they have not been found in the intermediate zone.
Disadvantages of strategic geography should be overcome by contracts and symbolic presence, and, ultimately, again as in the days of the cold war, the expansion of nuclear deterrence.
This ignores the fact that the stability of the cold war was based on very specific facts: the fifth article on mutual assistance of the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949, basing 300 thousand American soldiers with their families in Europe and finally and above all, nuclear deterrence in all formats.
Europe is nervous
Almost amicable end of the cold war left from all of this is only symbolic shape. In just a few months before the end of his second term, when Obama, during his farewell visit to the Baltic States and Poland, he promised them that their safety is firmly guaranteed, as armor, the promise of mutual assistance article 5.
Didn’t he know or did he not know that this mutual aid is not automatic and is subject to the approval of the national decree, and, therefore, depends on the fickle wind of crisis and military diplomacy?
It only took a few months, so Donald trump came to the White house, made the assist on the fifth article is dependent on the vote of the state accountant and rocked based on the structure of European security. But security policy is, above all, needs predictability. Otherwise it turns into an adventurous parkour.
Risk weakening NATO, which for four decades vainly fought the Soviet Union, now arose from an unexpected quarter: from Washington. Left the United States more so than they were after the Second world war, that is the power that guarantees the European balance? It is not surprising that in European capitals reigns nervous excitement.
The Suez experience, 1957
The New York Times reported from Berlin about the legal opinion for the German Bundestag, to which Germany is able to Finance the program for the creation of the British and French nuclear weapons in return for guarantees of protection from them.
The European Union can do the same if he, in turn, agree on your budget. French and British nuclear weapons could be stationed in Germany. The legality of nuclear capabilities ahead of the strategy of reality.
We’ve seen this movie before? The answer is not only of documentary interest, but also for the future of the transatlantic system, the structure of European security and relations with Russia.
Experience refers to the October, 1957, the key word here — the Suez canal: once a strong man from Cairo, Colonel Nasser seized control of the major waterways in the canal zone landed British and French troops, the Israelis were also involved.
Nuclear testing in the North African desert
Walk from a military point of view, the invasion ended in a quick retreat: Moscow threatened to use nuclear weapons, and the White house in Washington said that it is not the business of NATO. This will be the hour of truth for the former world powers UK and France, and the conclusions they made each their own, have been associated with nuclear weapons.
The UK searched for nuclear self-determination in the revival and strengthening based during the world wars, but always strained “special relationship” and included British General in the American development strategy. This system with some modifications operates today.
France, involved in the last colonial war, looking at the German economic and technical reinforcement for “nuclear research” in the North African desert and found a partner in the person of Franz Josef Strauss (Franz Josef Strauß), the Minister of defence of the body and soul.
Protection of the “American world”
However, only until such time as General de Gaulle returned after suspension at the Elysee Palace in Colombe-Les-Deux-Eglises and gave birth to the Fifth Republic. His verdict atomic project: Le nucléaire se partage mal (Nuclear forces badly divided).
From now on, France developed the Force de Frappe (nuclear forces) is intense enough to compete with the Soviet Union, but the sharp words of General, able to “pull” the aggressor. In any case, de Gaulle ensured his country place “at the table for adults.”
From purchasing, production and storage of nuclear weapons in Germany declined for the first time in 1954, second in 1990, and decided to look for security, Pax Americana (“the World-American”) until he gives. Everything that could induce the US, with trump or after it, to give Europe its nuclear destiny, it would be a leap into the unknown. The ability to work together in a coalition, as once said Chancellor Kohl, the German state remains the main idea.