The hand of friendship filed: led to the slaughter

The famous question of U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson: “Why US taxpayers should be interested in Ukraine?” can have many deep and highbrow answers. But, it seems, are better assimilated practical.

Petro Poroshenko, being a natural businessman, decided at a meeting with Donald trump, a very successful businessman, to talk in mutually comprehensible language. Therefore, undertook to explain to the U.S. President wants to raise again the American coal mining industry, Ukraine will help him in this. Our country now needs coal, especially anthracite. And Ukraine is ready to purchase. So why not in the US?

This approach is not the know-how Poroshenko. When Leonid Kuchma was in disgrace because of the Gongadze case and supposedly shipped to Iraq a “Kolchuga”, he heeded the advice to send Ukrainian soldiers to Kuwait and then to Iraq to help the Americans. And it softened Washington’s attitude to the Ukrainian President. But every President of the United States their “toys”, and each “donor” from Ukraine — their problems.

Having nothing against step two, the business of politicians towards each other, ZN.UA interested, on what terms American coal will be imported to Ukraine, whose, whom and which brand? Seemingly simple questions, and if they are discussed by the presidents, the answers to these questions are easy to find. There it was. However, along the way, we discovered and refined a number of interesting nuances.

It turned out that, if we continue the analogy, the Ukrainian soldiers have long been at war in Iraq. Namely, the Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises have long imported from USA coking coal — anthracite. In 2013 Ukrainian consumers of coal shipped to Americans half a billion dollars. But only for four months 2017 245 million in addition, from 2014 the so-called steam coal imports and power generation, thermal power plants and also through the code of the category “anthracite”. ZN.UA trying to figure out the metallurgy, energy, fiscal-customs officers and diplomats, the import of coal which brand of passing code 2701 categories: “anthracite”, Poroshenko said the Tramp — coking or energy? Mystery. Customs holding on to it, and for all other information about importing coal from the US was a surprise. Though rolling over the years and hundreds of millions of dollars on custom website open to the public. But, unfortunately, the management of customs to this day not had a single import code 2701 category “anthracite” split by grades of coal.

Examining customs reports and returns for 2013-2017, ZN.UA directly asked the largest energy company, DTEK, owned by Rinat Akhmetov, aren’t they tempted us steam coal, the most desired anthracite? Especially since, as we all remember, in Virginia, a company affiliated with Rinat Akhmetov, has coal mines.

The company revealed that, according to them, one of the engineers nothing is imported from the USA: “We are not imported from the USA, definitely! “Centrenergo” is also unlikely. This, apparently, coking anthracite. And its consumers — metallurgists, not energy. According to the American coal issues better refer to the “Metinvest”.

Answers found on the website of “Metinvest”. It turned out that their purchases of U.S. presidents for many years to please Vadim Novinsky.

At the same time we found out where and in what volumes imported steam coal, DTEK (see table. 1). It turned out, not so much in 2015-2016 But American anthracite in the company don’t expect is that expensive.

Who can know more about the import and export of subjects of foreign economic activity, than customs in the composition of the SFS. A scal Agency we asked a number of questions based on their own public information. In particular, the manufacturers, volumes and prices of import anthracite from the US. But at the customs we observe a trade secret. However, the provided SFS information (see table. 2) gives not a superficial idea about the import of American anthracite, mainly metallurgists.

What are the prospects of imported American coal energy?

USA: anthracite is almost not visible

For several months, Ukrainian officials say, as we now know about the upcoming “massive” supplies of American coal. Called different amounts, reaching 3 million tons.

June 25, Petro Poroshenko declared: “To ensure transparency of the energy market, we agreed that we would get the American coal of Pennsylvania. At competitive prices. We will have full cooperation and the Ministry of trade and Ministry of energy, the new administration and Congress, we will have a guaranteed supply of at least 2 million tons of coal.”

It’s all good and probably right, but there is a detail — pure anthracite in the US is almost not produced. In 2016, its production totaled 2.14 million tons. So a couple of million tons — this is the whole annual production of anthracite in America. Moreover, there is a long-established segment of consumption, and breaking it for the sake of a single transaction, no one will.

In principle, the reserves of Ukraine needs coal in the Pennsylvania has, a hundred years ago in this state to produce up to 90-100 million tons per year, that is 50 times more than now. But over time, coal production began to fall.

Recall that the anthracite formed in complex geological conditions, most of the thin layers, and to extract it easy. On the contrary, the layers of gas coal in the United States is shallow and very thick (there are and 20 m).

In General, in the twentieth century Pennsylvanian anthracite lost outright in the local market to other groups of coals. Now his modest production survived in four or five counties Appalachins mining region. Moreover, local mining companies — by volumes about the level of our “kopanok”. American statistics have themselves counted there are about 60-70. This is mainly medium-sized family firms that dolivayut small career of easily accessible coal. Under the ground (even superficially) almost no one climbs (there are a dozen small sites). Firms with annual production of 300-400 thousand tonnes/year just a couple of pieces.

Remaining in the occupied territory of Ukraine the mine “Komsomolets of Donbass” (DTEK) is one of extracted coal anthracite (empty stomach) twice more than all the mines of the United States — anthracite. At the outlet of the produced in the United States approximately billion tons of coal (three times more than in Russia) anthracite is only 0.2%.

For reference

Anthracite — the oldest of the fossil coal. High calorie content. Very low content of volatile matter (less than 8%).

In world trade it is a rare grade of coal. Extracted in Ukraine in the Luhansk region. All of the mine with its production located in the occupied territory.

The anthracite has six thermal power plants in Ukraine in unoccupied territory and a few CHP (including Darnytskyi CHP in Kiev).

Skinny charcoal prointernet — more young, not fully formed anthracite. The content of volatile substances from 8 to 18%. More common but still quite rare.

Can replace anthracite. So, derived from South Africa anthracite according to the Ukrainian classification refers to skinny (lean) coal.

The largest manufacturer of Donetsk “mine “Komsomolets of Donbass”. Mining areas are also occupied.

Dross (from Staub, German — dust) — derived product from the extraction of coal. The small pieces of size 0 to 6 mm.

After the war in the Donbass to pensylvanicum several occasions, the traders from Ukraine, but they said, “Coal for power plants we have”. In principle, formed a certain amount of anthracite coal powder, which may be sold. Perhaps, some amount of low volatile bituminous coals of similar composition to our bring skinny. But none of what having millions of tons of anthracite and it was not…

In fact, the “residual” resources of anthracite in Pennsylvania good. Geological reserves chose only a quarter, left more than 12 billion tons. But it takes time, money and a long-term contract with a reliable buyer to revive and increase production. Whoever was the buyer from the Ukrainian side — “Centrenergo” or lobbied the Minister of economy Cubisim state Reserve, in any case he will have to undergo procedure of check of the buyer, submitting the financial report, explaining the sources of funds and providing guarantees their existence. After all, sellers need to be confident in the integrity and solvency of the buyer, for which the company will have to attract labour-power and means of execution of the contract. Million tons of coal in the warehouses of American companies there.

In addition, coal from the USA is not cheap — at least more South African $ 10-15 per ton. Prices change, and generally anthracite is traditionally more expensive. But our interlocutors in the Ministry of energy on simple request to provide data for comparison of import prices of American, South African, Australian and Vietnamese coals of the same brand reacted strangely rolled his eyes, clamped his mouth with his hands, has committed sepuku and fell out of the window. Worry must be for the contract.

Uglies as an icebreaker

All of the above is no secret, so when the Minenergougolprom Ukraine began to talk about the future of large receipts of anthracite from overseas, skeptics thought more about the schemes — “American firm Kuzbass coal.” Or Lugansk, or the same “Komsomolets of Donbass”. Fortunately, that recently “Centrenergo” was nearly contracted anthracite from the Georgian Kutaisi, where anthracite otrodjas was not found.

However, to indulge in a scheme with the Americans, has long been closely tracking predvidenie Poroshenko and Akhmetov, Ukraine’s President is unlikely to be resolved. After all, his idea with the import of American coal seeks to untie the knot, and to tighten the noose. How did you learn ZN.UA the main negotiations of the Ukrainian side is conducted with the largest coal producing company of America — XCOAL Energy&RESOURCES. The company is mining in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, selling coal of different hardness and anthracite, but mostly metallurgical companies. On average, 16 million tons of coal a year is imported through the port owned by the giant.

In June, Pennsylvania was visited by a delegation from Ukraine. It was warmly received, drink coffee, have traveled to places… and then there was a pause, which was interrupted spoke about the future “Peremoga” Poroshenko. A large contract yet. But there is information about the upcoming energy supply in August-September 120 thousand tons of coal from the United States, that is, one ship-upavasa (slang for power engineering “of the boat)”. This is 20 times less than in initial applications, but more realistic.

Now everyone is waiting for a bilateral meeting between representatives of Ukraine and the U.S. “strategic supply of coal for Ukrainian needs.” At the same time, tactfully stating that a “boat” is not limited to, “the volume of supply can be revised upward after the visit to Ukraine of the American colleagues from the U.S. Department of energy. The specific amount of the subsequent deliveries will be known after the bilateral talks.”

In General, as expected, if we talk about coal, our Eldorado in Pennsylvania have not yet found. But a couple of “boats” this year may get.

The Americans say that these freighters can be up to 5-6, and in the presence of a long-term contract next year — and more. It is assumed that the coal will go to the state “Centrenergo” (it has two stations on the anthracite group). But to increase production by Americans we need coal keywords — long-term contract and warranty. The funny thing is that from the Ukrainian side, like we have already heard hints that in the supply chain need… you guessed it, of course, the mediator, oops, sorry, operator. What we are somewhat surprised the Americans.

While, as a bonus, the planned delivery is reached the President trump, who said: “Ukraine have already said that needs millions and millions of tons of coal right now. And we want to sell him.”

Modernization of the entire

Want to sell as buy — it is definitely useful. It would be what to sell and what to buy. And here is the logical issues. Summer of 2017, three years ago in the Donbass began to blow up railway tracks and flooding the mine. Not to say that three years nothing has been done. Was done much, just not otherwise. Only one scheme “Rotterdam+” enriched Rinat Akhmetov and not even ruined Peter. But the problem of diversification of supply as was in a back corral, and left. In the past year fell by even very modest supply of thermal coal from South Africa.

In fact, the entire anthracite supplied with the outbreak of hostilities, was, or from (from) Russia, or the schemes of terrorist formations “LPR” and “DPR”. With the beginning of the blockade the scheme collapsed. In the end, anthracite power plants now are out of work, trying to accumulate a little coal. It turns out so — so- if you plan to establish by October reserves of 1.8 million tons, while accumulated 40 percent. And ahead of the second half of July and August, with irregular electricity consumption.

Clear victories can be noted except that the transfer to the brand “G” (the so-called gas coal) of one of the units zmiivska TPP. Until the end of the year promise to upgrade another unit. It would sound cheerful at the end of 2015. The backlog of action from challenges for two years — a luxury. In the end, until the end of 2017 units running on “gas” coal, is already four — two zmiivska and two on the Dnieper TPP.

Sparse. In the “gas” group of coal it is necessary to take at least 10-15 blocks. But why hurry — coal is cheap to buy in ORDA and expensive were sold in the unoccupied, but a corrupt site for quite international prices. All are happy, all who need — in the subject, and who should — and share.

With the same American coal — we are quite sold to the mine or quarry. Yes, even just having a long-term contract, it would be possible to do a lot… But to buy, and especially to conclude a long-term contract under the business practices and laws of the United States, the applicant, the recall must pass the appropriate qualification to provide the audited report, warranty (especially in the case of the state “Centrenergo”) the solvency, insurance and other qualification documents. If you have not passed this procedure, no contract, especially long-term, and do not dream! Fiscals the US is relentless.

The coal, especially energy, Ukraine really needed for normal operation of thermal power plants and combined heat and power in 2017 it is necessary to buy abroad up to 5 million tons of anthracite. It was assumed that the lion’s share (4.4 million tons) is received by sea. Almost all deliveries have for the second half.

To buy in Russia at first thought less than 70 thousand tons. It seems that to this figure add at least a zero, exceeding last year’s level of imports from the Russian Federation.

Now the plan looks overly optimistic. So, DTEK, which according to the forecast balance of energy needs to buy 2 million tons of coal until the contracted approximately 600 thousand

The issue is not just of diversifying supplies of coal to Ukraine, but the country’s coal is one of the fundamental for the surviving of the economy. We hope that the contract for the supply of American coal will be signed. And replaced the muddy corruption Orlovskim schemes will not come clear, but not the most beneficial contracts. We believe that President Poroshenko should not only Trump over Manafort, but also his country. For everything.