The closer to the equator the summer, the faster the price continues to fall the dollar in Ukraine. Yesterday the average rate of cash sales stood at 26, 05 grn/$, and the purchase of 25.8 UAH (places for commercial exchange currency can be sold for 25.7 per UAH, and buy — in 26 UAH). It is 30-60 cents lower than it was in the early summer — as of June 1, “green” banks were sold for UAH 26.3/$ and bought for of 26.1 UAH/$. “Today” has learned from financial experts, why the stronger hryvnia and the dollar falls, as well as what course can expect from the Ukrainians until the end of this year.
REASONS. According to experts, the strengthening of the hryvnia is a seasonal phenomenon. “Summer is a quiet period in all areas. Some people solve the food problem in the cottages and gardens, part resting outside the country. In the summer months in Ukraine is traditionally low, and even zero inflation and low demand for the currency. Therefore, the NBU during this period usually comes on the interbank market, usually for ransom, not its sale to maintain the rate. In the summer the course will vary at the level of 25,9—26,1”, — told the “Today” member of the Economic discussion club Oleg Pendzin
But according to economist Ivan Nikitchenko, is not without its positive macroeconomic developments: “Ukraine has a positive balance of payments, that is, we are receiving more and more of the currency than leaving. Very well, that in January-may, exports grew faster than imports. Also not so much time has passed after receiving the last tranche of the IMF, ended the heating season. Plus, the dollar depreciates against the Euro in the world markets — from 1.05 at the beginning of the year to 1.14 today. And so as our main trading partner is the EU, the hryvnia gradually more focused on the Euro. It is possible that we slowly began to get out of the “dollar” zone in euros, as calculations in the CIS among themselves are mainly the dollar.”
Also, according to economists, there is another important factor that statistics are still not showing. “Most likely, increased listings from our workers abroad. Many people coming to Poland. There was more than a million Ukrainians officially working. In statistics, we don’t see a strong increase in the inflow of money from them. But I think that the statistics just do not all take into account, and the money coming into the country. Therefore, such a situation in the currency market and have created”, — said the chief economist of investment company Dragon Capital Elena Belan.
FORECAST. The experts in one voice assured that the trend will continue, but strong podeshevenie dollar in Ukraine is not expected. “There can still be reduced by 10-20 cents, no more. The national Bank is more profitable to redeem excess currency than to allow the strengthening of the hryvnia. But in the autumn the prognosis is not so good for the hryvnia — she again will fall in price until 27-27,5 UAH/$ by the end of the year. Let me remind you, according to the forecast of Ministry of economic development and the budget resolution in 2018, the average expected rate of 28 UAH/$. To him we will come in January-February of 2018,” says Nikitchenko.
Oleg Pendzin too sure — from September to November, Ukraine is waiting for the fall of the hryvnia, inflation and growth of prices for socially important products. “First, September typically starts growth in business activity, leading to a sharp demand for currency (we are import-dependent country). Besides the expected pension modernization will release additional money supply. The government and the NBU consciously awaiting this moment, so they changed their predictions for 2017 compared with the figures budgeted for 2017. Inflation from 8% increased to 11.2%. The GDP growth forecast was reduced from 3% to 1.8%. This means that the growth of the money supply in circulation will not match the growth of the newly created value. The government abandoned price regulation of commodities, therefore, nothing will deter their growth,” said Pendzin. Thus, according to him, to enter the projected budget average annual rate of 27.2 USD per dollar, the national Bank could lower the rate of the hryvnia to 28-28,5.
External debt and the motto of the speculators
Also on the economic situation in September could affect the country’s external debt. “Since the fall of 2017, there is a trend in the increase in the volume of external payments, and their source remains unclear. But we have to use the loan funds effectively to produce a competitive industry, capable at the expense of their supply to foreign markets high-value products to establish a base for earnings country currency. Therefore, the issue of investing in new technology — the key to the development policy of the country”, — the expert of economic programmes of the Razumkov Centre Volodymyr Sidenko.
Meantime, experts recommend that the Ukrainians to remember the cardinal rule of speculators: “Buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone is buying”. “Especially to capitalize on the purchase and sale of cash dollars does not work, but if you do not know where to invest their savings, the dollar is a good option,” says Nikitchenko.
Tranche of the IMF: it has been postponed because of the missed reforms
The international monetary Fund has postponed granting Ukraine the fifth tranche of $1.9 bn by the end of 2017. So, in an interview with Bloomberg, Prime Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Groisman said that the Parliament will not have time to vote for the necessary reforms before going on vacation. Because of this financial assistance, which was scheduled to arrive in August, delayed for several months. Officials from the IMF are unhappy with the fact that the Ukrainian Parliament sent back for revision of pension reform, as land reform was not considered at all. Recall that according to the planned schedule of the Parliament last plenary week of the current session will be held from 11 to 14 July.
At the same time Vladimir Groisman assured that the government remains committed to cooperation with the Foundation: “We are working on reforms, and the fifth installment will come”. Analyst at Forex club Andrey Shevchishin calm: even if Ukraine will not receive credit in August, the economy is not affected: “This is not the first such suspension of relations of Ukraine and the IMF. Ultimately, these delays formed a negative background, but was not critical for our economic system. And the current freezing of the tranche if it does not last longer than the first quarter of 2018, will not be critical for the economy.”
In turn, the political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko adds: pension reform next week, the MPs can partially accept (problem remains the issue of insurance), but for land reform voices are unlikely to exist, and this year expect progress on this issue is not worth it.