G20: why the US is no friend of Germany, and Putin is pursuing the shadow of war in Ukraine

Tomorrow in Hamburg starts a two-day summit of “Big twenty”. Since the late 90s the club “twenty” unites the most developed world economy. But only after a severe financial crisis in 2008, he began to emphasize. The city for the summit of the chosen Merkel comes from Hamburg. “Today” has reported that in the official agenda of the G20-2017 – the global economy and trade, climate and cyber security, migration and combating terrorism. But where do without policy. Like the G7, the G20 summit will be an informal platform for meeting world leaders with a new US President Donald trump. And for the leaders of Germany, France and the EU as a whole – a platform for public criticism of the leader States. Here in Hamburg will be the first meeting between the trump and Putin, and tripartite negotiations Merkel-macron-Putin on Ukraine. Much from the G20 summit-2017 should not be expected, but it can set the tone in addressing global challenges: terrorism, immigration crisis, world trade and climate.

According to the German media in Hamburg introduced unprecedented security measures, which cost the Federal budget of 32 million euros. Patrol Hamburg will be 20 thousand law enforcement officers, including divers, if one of the guests accidentally fall into the water. According to German intelligence, there is a danger that just as the days of the summit in Hamburg can come about 10 thousand protesters who may disrupt the meeting of world leaders. So on Tuesday evening, the police with water cannons dispersed thousands of demonstrators (anti-globalization activists, representatives of left parties and activists of the eco-movement) who came to protest against the summit.

The official slogan of the G20 summit this year is “the Formation of an interconnected world.” The slogan is more than relevant, given the shift of the trend of globalization towards national interests and secrecy. According to the Director of the Hamburg Institute of world politics Henninge of Pepela, globalization, in a sense, can fall back – the US has used protectionist measures.

“Whither the world economy? Many of today’s research gives us cause for concern. The development of the world economy is failing. Along with the stabilization of the global economy and financial markets, on the agenda of the G20 global challenges – geopolitical conflicts, terrorism, migration, refugees, famine, climate change and pandemics,” writes the Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel in the official announcement of the summit.

On the agenda three key thematic blocks: strengthening resilience to economic shocks (world economy, global trade, employment, financial markets and tax cooperation); improving sustainable development (climate and energy, digitalization, implementation of the UN agenda until 2030, health care and the empowerment of women); capacity-responsibility (addressing the causes of forced migration, counter-terrorism, anti-corruption, partnership with Africa, ensuring agro-food security).

USA Germany is no longer a friend. Though G20 officially kicks off on Friday 7 July, world leaders will arrive in Hamburg tonight. So, for example, the speaker of the German Chancellor Steffen Seibert announced the appointment of Angela Merkel with Donald trump on the evening of 6 July. The leaders of Germany and the USA will discuss the overall initiative to combat terrorism, the financing of UN peacekeeping missions and the immigration crisis. “The summit “Big twenty” will be held, when not all agree with the principle of multilateralism. This year will be difficult on many issues,” – said Seibert, clearly hinting at criticism of trump NATO and the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. Though Merkel officially stated that she does not want trump’s isolation at the G20 summit, but on the eve of her election program, the word “friend” in relation to the States replaced the phrase “most important partner of Germany.”

Criticism of trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement does not subside until now. This, according to the Western press can be a major stumbling block in the negotiations within the G20. World leaders criticized trump, saying, he did it in favor of a narrow group of American energy companies. According to analysts, a reflection of this theme in the final communiqué of the summit risks becoming the main issue of the meeting of “twenty”. As issues of global trade and economy. At a meeting in mid-March, the Ministers of Finance and heads of Central banks G20 failed to agree on the inclusion in the final communiqué of the item on the preservation of free trade and no protectionist restrictions. The solution to blocked States.

Donald trump has repeatedly criticized Germany for not commensurate, in his opinion, the excess of exports over imports, complaining of the dominance of German cars on the American market. And yesterday, when leaving from a visit to Poland, the US President wrote in his Twitter: “the United States entered into the worst in the history of the world trade agreement. Why should we continue these transactions with countries that do not help us?”

The United States made some of the worst Trade Deals in world history.Why should we continue these deals with countries that do not help us?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 5, 2017

Another challenge for trump will be the policy of North Korea. Just in time for the US Independence Day and on the eve of the G20 summit, the DPRK conducted tests of Intercontinental ballistic missiles, which, according to the calculations of Japan and South Korea can reach U.S. soil.

“North Korea just launched another missile. This guy (the leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-UN – Ed.) nothing else to do in life? Hard to believe that South Korea and Japan will continue to put up with it. Maybe China will strengthen measures against North Korea and put an end to this madness once and for all,” wrote trump on his Twitter in response to North Korea’s actions.

North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life? Hard to believe that South Korea…..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 4, 2017

For the post of President of the United States criticized even in America. The congressmen criticized trump that instead of having to give tough response to Pyongyang, he writes, “tweets” from your Tramp National Golf Club. And the Senator from “Republicans” and deb Fischer and urged all to exert more pressure “on patrons of North Korea – China and Russia.” A week ago, Washington imposed sanctions against individuals and legal entities of China (mainly banks) for illegal financial activities with North Korea. But in Congress and the Senate these measures are considered insufficient.

In Hamburg within the framework of the G20 Donald trump’s planned talks with the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea. But not the fact that they will support the proposals of the American leader against the regime in the DPRK. No wonder analysts say that trump procrastination in solving the North Korean problem was not in the hands of the U.S. – China and Russia have agreed to jointly deal with the crisis around missile and nuclear programs of the DPRK. For this step, according to experts, Beijing has pushed naval maneuvers for the Americans. In mid-April, carrier strike group the U.S. Navy led by the nuclear aircraft carrier “Carl Vinson” has come to the Korean Peninsula in anticipation of a possible new nuclear tests in North Korea or launch ballistic missiles, which China called “a serious political and military provocation.”

Of course the G20 world leaders will discuss the war in Syria and the joint fight against terrorism. In this issue, writes in his author’s blog for “Today” extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Ukraine Sergiy Korsunsky, interested in the possible meeting of the presidents of Russia and Turkey, which could prove to be another challenge for trump. “Publications appeared that Turkey and Russia are jointly preparing a military operation in those areas of Syria where US-backed Kurdish. Among slightly “peppered” the news should note the prohibition on the part of Germany to enter the country for the personal guards of Erdogan, concerning which in the United States issued a court order in connection with the beating of protesters during the recent visit of the Turkish leader in Washington. In addition, Germany was not allowed Erdogan to hold a rally with supporters in Hamburg, which once again caused a very harsh criticism of Ankara to Berlin” – said Korsunsky.

“But smiles and handshakes will be nothing”. Especially closely the world community will follow the first meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia, which will take place on the first day of the G20 summit on 7 July. According to the press-Secretary of Putin, Dmitry Peskov, it will be very limited in time and in case of readiness of the United States, the topic may be the joint fight against terrorism in Syria and prospects for resolving the war in Syria. The Russian press also wrote that Putin may raise the issue of the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate and short range. It just violates Russia itself, threatening to deploy in the Kaliningrad region cruise missiles “Caliber” with a range of up to 1,500 km.

“But a substantive dialogue on the control of the Contract trump is not ready. Putin may raise this issue. Trump, I think, confine myself here to a more General position. The conversation around arms control will be, but any concrete decisions will be taken”, – said the “Today” program co-Director of foreign policy and international security Center Razumkova Mikhail Pashkov.

Another topic of conversation trump with Putin will be the Russian aggression against Ukraine. This was previously reported by CNN, citing its sources. Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the deliberations of the leaders of the United States and Russia of the Ukrainian question, forgot to mention about the “civil war” and the inevitability of the implementation of the Minsk agreements, of course, on the Kremlin’s terms. But in General, experts do not expect any breakthrough decisions. “Short and informal meeting will be the first symbolic step in trying to improve relations between the US and Russia. I expect smiles and handshakes, may, promises to work together, but not anymore. Remember the important meetings, which provide important results, is always preceded by preparatory work by the staffs of both parties. There are no signs that such preparatory work was carried out”, – said the “Today” Professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark (new Jersey) Alexander Motyl.

But here is the interesting detail: on the eve of trump’s meeting with Putin in Hamburg to Moscow to the Russian President flew former U.S. Secretary of state Henry Kissinger, in Washington, meanwhile, met the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the U.S. Sergey Kislyak and US Undersecretary of state Thomas Shannon. The latter, according to official reports, was preparing the agenda for the meeting of the presidents at the G20. Kissinger was flying to Russia at the annual forum for diplomats “Primakov’s reading.” But, as already I wrote “Today”, Kissinger is known to the public its plans of Russia and the United States: Moscow implements the Minsk agreements, the States turn a blind eye to the annexation of Crimea. Sergey Kislyak, who a couple of months, as withdrawing from States, which is tightly involved in the scandal with the investigation of Russian interference in the American presidential election.

Moreover, it was That Shannon was supposed to fly to St. Petersburg on June 23 for talks with Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov. According to us media, the topic of conversation was supposed to be a new plan for the rapprochement between the United States and the Russian Federation by the state Secretary Rex Tillerson, who, in particular, provides for the return of confiscated late last year, the Russian diplomatic residences in new York and Maryland.

“I would say that this is not the convergence plan. It seems to me, is called “a vision of normalization of relations.” Rather, it is about the vision of relations with Russia in General. And if the first paragraph is clear enough that none of the parties, and Russia in particular, does not resort to provocative actions because there will be a response from the USA… I’d say there are two points which are still unknown in what way can catch the Ukraine. This is the point that the US will continue to try to cooperate with Russia on issues where they can cooperate, in particular Syria, North Korea, cyber terrorism. And the third paragraph, which to me is incomprehensible – the achievement of strategic stability in relations between the US and Russia. I do not understand what was going on which strategic stability can be when Russia behaves and, in principle, there are no signs of concessions or revision of policy on her part. And, again, talking about the project, we don’t know whether it was approved in the White house,” said Today the Director of the Institute of world policy Alyona Hetmanczuk.

Therefore, according to experts, is unlikely from the first meeting with trump Putin is to expect any breakthrough decisions in Ukraine. Putin will certainly stick to their line about the “civil war” and “lost in the Donbas Russian SolDat”. Trump, however, limited to generalities, because the US is still no clearly defined policy towards Russia and Ukraine.

More analysts are betting on a planned G20 trilateral meeting of the leaders of Germany, France and Russia. The main topic of the talks the Russian military aggression against Ukraine. It was here, according to experts, Emmanuel macron can present the idea of implementation of the Minsk agreements. We can go on so-called “formula Rules”, as stated by Petro Poroshenko after a meeting with French President in Paris. “Formula Rules”, according to the Ukrainian President’s plan for peace and de-occupation of Donbass.

“Since the plan of Macron’s really about the cessation of hostilities and, therefore, the revival of Minsk, as Putin has the sense to try to establish good relations with the Macron, I expect this plan will be the focus of the trilateral meeting. Putin is likely to support this plan, insisting as always on the fact that Russia is not directly involved in the war in the Donbass, and that the militants should be involved (Kyiv, according to Putin, needs to establish a direct dialogue with the militants – Ed.)”, – summed up Alexander Motyl.