The West has to take sides in the flaring conflict between Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates on the one hand and Qatar on the other.
At the moment, many Arab governments support Saudi Arabia, while only a few sided with Qatar, which is accused of supporting terrorists, assistance to Iran and the funding of rebel TV channel Al-Jazeera.
In this situation, the leaders of the governments of the United States, France, Britain and Germany called for dialogue, compromise and diplomatic solutions. In other words, went from having to take sides.
But the West can be put before necessity of choice. Or, even worse, actions.
It may be quite impossible for Western governments, who for years have been doing a powerful emphasis on friendship and trade with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. And are readily attracted to the industry and the development of the West, investment from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Emirates and Bahrain.
The Saudi Alliance has already stopped the air and sea message with Qatar and the closed land border between Saudi Arabia and the Peninsula, which is the Emirate of Qatar.
13 claims Qatar
Today, the Saudi Alliance wants to get from Qatar the Saudi response to the 13 demands, including the closure of Al-Jazeera, the ban of the Muslim brotherhood (an organization banned in Russia), the suspension of ties with Iran, the closure of Turkish bases in Qatar, the results of the opposition from other Arab countries and stop supporting terrorists.
And what the West if Saudi Alliance would require political support?
And what the West if Saudi Alliance directly will require the West to action in the form of rupture of relations with Qatar?
The most unpleasant it can be if Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Bahrain will begin military action against Qatar. This would mean that the best Western weapons to fight with the best Western weapons. The United States and Western Europe has supplied arms to all the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.
In addition, Western governments have bases in Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain, that is, in both sides of the conflict.
The war will also create chaos in the world oil market.
The biggest annoyance can become a military-political coup that could be committed by Saudi Alliance in Qatar. It needs to be run efficiently, almost elegant — not to start a power struggle that could lead to the fact that events will intervene other countries, perhaps Iran. And what to do to the West?
Fears for cash flow
With regard to the fight against ISIL (the movement is banned in Russia), officially the Western great powers highly appreciate the cooperation with Qatar and its Arab rivals. Cooperation koordiniruyutsya from the main American regional headquarters of CentCom in Qatar, located near the largest in the middle East American air force base with 10 thousand American soldiers.
At the same time, Western governments are trying hard to force Arab governments to stop the money flow to the Islamist militias in Syria and Iraq, both from Qatar and from the countries of his enemies. According to the BBC, in the ranks of ISIS there are 4 thousands of residents of Saudi Arabia.
Unofficially, Western governments fear that Qatar and Emirates and Saudi Arabia constantly the money goes and maybe even weapons, uncontrolled militias in Syria and Iraq who have a tendency to terror. Right now, the British government, according to The Times, criticized for the fact that does not turn diplomatically sensitive report, which, in particular, says about Saudi financing of Islamic extremism in the UK.
“Saudi Arabia financing mosques, schools and textbooks all over the world still causes accusations of supporting extremism,” the BBC writes.
Position or action?
If Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Bahrain will require from the West political solidarity against Qatar, USA, UK, France and Germany can support the call for the fight against terrorists. They can also support calls to ensure that media is not abused content, hateful or recommendations to resort to violent action.
But Western governments are unable to call for the closing of the most popular middle East television channel Al-Jazeera or the censorship of free media.
If Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Bahrain will require from Western action in the form of non-cooperation with Qatar, it will be even worse.
According to the BBC, the investments of Qatar in the world, primarily in the West, are 335 billion. If Qatar will sell its Western securities, it will be a nightmare for the West.
But Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Bahrain also have in the West a large investment in financial institutions, construction, industry, tourism and football clubs. Here you can also mention the national center of health Serum Instituttet in Copenhagen.
In the US, the trump makes it clear that he knows what’s at stake. On Sunday, us President on the phone held discussions with the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. The White house says trump in this conversation, told conflicting allies in the Persian Gulf that “unity in the region is crucial in order to defeat terrorism and maintain regional stability.”
But can the Alliance against Qatar, led by Saudi Arabia, decided to demand from the Western world to make a choice: to trade or Qatar, or with other countries?
The Possibility Of Qatar
Qatar is one of the richest societies in the world, like Emirates.
But while the Emir of Qatar decided to bear the additional costs associated with the fact that air and sea transport must overcome the ban by Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, there is however a limit to how long Qatar can bear the crisis costs. The ban imposed Qatar has been in a month.
However, Qatar is not deprived of the opportunity to exert pressure. The Emirate may accept the proposals of Turkey and Iran. The latter may be perceived by Saudi Alliance and Western governments as a provocation.
On Monday, the foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt are meeting to hear the response that Qatar had handed over to Kuwaiti intermediary.
The agenda may also include questions about what steps Saudi coalition expects from the Western world. In the form of a position or action.