On Sunday an American fighter jet shot down a Syrian bomber. Alleged Syrian pilot bombed positions of the “Democratic forces of Syria,” that is Kurdish-Arab groups, who cooperate with the West in the battles for Raqqa — the nerve center of the “Islamic state” (banned in Russia — approx. ed.). Now these Kurdish groups make the largest contribution to the fight against jihadists on the ground.
According to Syrian and Russian officials positions, a Syrian plane was actually struck allegedly on positions of Islamic radicals, and the Americans helped them, causing his blow. Russia considers the us actions aggression, so on Monday, the Russian position hardened. The Russian armed forces fighting in Syria on the side of the Syrian government have threatened that they will consider any flying object target for a possible strike. This position argue that the armed forces of the Russian Federation invited in Syria “legitimate” government.
The problem guaranteed
However, this situation could easily lead to a direct confrontation between Russian and American armed forces, which operate in close proximity to Raqqa, that is, in the Eastern part of Syria. Before this region was controlled by the “Islamic state”, and now referred to storm Kurdish-Arab “Democratic forces of Syria.” In recent days, they complain that in the province of raqqa they attack the Syrian army, so sooner or later they will have to engage in battle with Syrian soldiers.
It is useful to recall that the Russians and the Americans in Syria are in two completely different, in fact, military conflicts. Two years ago, Moscow has come to help Assad in the fight against Sunni insurgents, and the Americans are fighting in Syria with the “Islamic state”.
In recent years, Russia presents itself as a fighter against jihadism and is seeking to present U.S. actions as support for Islamist radicals. However, “radicals” is nothing more than a shortcut that Russian and Syrian propaganda hangs on everyone who is not fighting on government side. However, early Russian aviation bombed in the first place nagaevsky Syrian rebels, making this even when thus, in fact, helped the “Islamic state”.
Now there is a danger that if, during the air raids on Islamic state, Americans will hurt Russian interests, the Russian armed forces will strike the Americans, and then the conflict will become much more serious. Until recently, functioned as a mechanism for mutual coordination, but now the Russians abandoned it unilaterally. The American side argues that the communication channel was used on Sunday. If so, then Russia has deliberately escalated the situation.
Why would she do that? During the offensive on Raqqa, a new front of a new war. In the former capital of the “Islamic state” and a key city in Eastern Syria has views from several parties, including Turkey. However, she refused from their plans to capture Raqqa. In addition, to take control of the city, of course, wants the Syrian government, which successfully consolidates its territory in the West and wants to do the same in the East. In Raqqa claimed “the Democratic forces of Syria”, who now lead the battle for the town and I’m going to attach it to the territories controlled by the Kurds.
Thus, we have solved the question of who will control this part of Syria, when Islamic state is defeated. Not only Turkey but also the Syrian government, along with Moscow want to prevent being fostered a territory controlled by the Kurds and Arab Sunnis who support America. In fields in Eastern Syria that leaves … “Islamic state”, Iran is also interested. He stealthily takes control of the regions located on the other side of the border (around Mosul in Northern Iraq).
The Russian attempt to intimidate the Americans and the Kurds is part of this new war as another phenomenon. Talking about Iranian missile attacks against targets in Syria. Strikes from Iran, applied through Iraqi territory to Syria is a message, the addressee of which are probably, again, the Americans, and perhaps the Saudis or the Israelis. In both cases we are dealing with a show of force, although in this sense, opportunities of Moscow and Tehran, incomparably less than in the United States.
But they have another commitment and at least a medium-term plan, which the administration no trump. And for the ultimate success of such a plan may be much more important. So, most likely we will avoid a Third world war, you can not say about defeat chaotic Washington will cause the Russians and the Iranians.