The crime scene — the White house

In the evening in your birthday Donald trump wanted to do another a special obligation. Important meeting far removed from the everyday scandals in Washington. At the hospital, Georgetown, the US President, with his wife Melania, visited Congressman Steve Scalise, who was wounded in the attack in Alexandria. But before trump to sit in the car, as The Washington Post published unpleasant news. The special Prosecutor in the investigation against the Russian Robert Mueller, now focused on the President himself, not just his environment.

The problem for trump?

Very important: this message does not mean that trump literally has one foot in prison. Theoretically, at the end of the investigation, Mueller can come to the conclusion that the reason for this.

But Mueller investigation expands, thereby increasing the risk for a billionaire. The special Prosecutor had to consider only the question of whether the team campaign trump collusion with Moscow. Now he’s investigating (in particular, because of the statements trump himself) the question, let the President to justice. Legally, it can be a problem, politically it has already happened: obstruction of justice, in 1998, in the case of bill Clinton, is a Central component of a possible impeachment process. And the fact that Mueller is investigating such a possibility is likely to cause intense debate and mobilizes Democrats.

In addition, Muller greatly complicates Trump running the country. In the course of its investigation, it will interrogate the many advisers who were to shape the President’s plans. And now, when the White house becomes a crime scene, the President and his aides should be more careful. Each word can be used against them.

Is there any evidence that points to obstruction of justice?

Yes, a few. One of them became the testimony of a former Director of the FBI James Komi. Komi announced last week about a meeting in the oval office in February, where the President demanded that he stop the investigation against the former adviser on security issues, Michael Flynn. “I hope you see some way to leave it” — quoted President of the Komi Republic. Trump denies it, but, as in this case, his words are contrasted with words of Komi, will be very difficult to establish the truth. Except that is, for example, record a conversation or witnesses who can confirm the version of Komi.

Another important choice is how trump justified the dismissal of the Komi Republic. First, the White house said that the dismissal of the Komi Republic due to his actions in the case of email hacking, Hillary Clinton, and recommendations of the Ministry of justice. But since trump has publicly said that before the dismissal he thought about the “business Russia”. This statement seems much more dangerous for trump, because it can be equated to a kind of recognition that he wanted to get rid of the investigator, to sleep peacefully. Perhaps, for müller, this was the main reason to take up trump personally.

As special Prosecutor to act now?

Within a few weeks Muller assembled a team of renowned and experienced investigators that made nervous by some Republicans. Mueller and his team will interview all relevant people. It may take some time, but the special Prosecutor, it seems, is interested in a rapid procedure. Presumably, this week the team will debrief the Director of national intelligence Dan Coates and the head of the NSA Mike Rogers.

According to reports, trump has put pressure on both, that they publicly stated that there is no evidence of collusion between his team and Russia. Recently, speaking before the Senate, Coates and Rogers silent about their conversation with the President. Muller may make a second attempt to threaten them that in case of doubt, they will testify before the jury.

For Muller is most important for those people who are in the spotlight because of questionable contacts with Russian officials, including a former security adviser Flynn and former campaign Manager by Paul Manafort. Justice Minister Jeff sessions is also an important witness, because he must have known about the internal reasons for the dismissal of Komi Republic, who called trump. The new focus of the investigation, Mueller suggests the interrogations of all close advisers to the President, including the chief of staff of Primus Raines, spokesman Sean Spicer chief strategist, and Stephen Bannon.

How does trump?

This is a crucial question. The President has two options. He may try to split the White house. He engaged in his plans, his lawyers and advisers exclusively to those, both legally and publicly to manipulate the investigation by Mueller. Bill Clinton successfully did this when he was under investigation in the Lewinsky case. The problem is that in recent weeks the head of trump, it seems, is nothing but an FBI investigation. It would be very surprising if he took himself in hand.

Another option is to fire the special Prosecutor. Inside trump attempts to conduct such a maneuver. Apparently, he thinks he can affect Muller’s only one threat. The dismissal of Muller is extremely dangerous politically. Because it will lead to suspicion that he wanted to get rid of the investigation, and it will create trouble for him. Remember, Richard Nixon fired special investigator in the Watergate scandal in 1973. A step which ultimately led to its collapse.