By now it is clear that Russia can win

The interim decision of the Stockholm arbitration, to liberate Ukraine from payments on several articles bonded gas contract, agreed by Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko, is not just a victory of one side over another, of one state over another. This is the beginning of a civilized communication, which recognizes the primacy of international law — unless, of course, Russia has repeatedly violated it, want to admit it.

Because how to build energy relations between Russia and Ukraine? Barter schemes, “cabal”, the backroom deals, the murky intermediaries. Agreement signed on 31 December — the parties were blackmailing each other to the last. And it’s always mutual pollination won’t consumers, and speculators. I remember one of these outcomes to the crisis — 31 December, New year, it is unclear what will happen to the gas, and the employees of “Gazprom” and “Naftogaz” are trying to negotiate at the hotel “Ukraine” in Moscow. Why there? But because it seems to be owned by the SEMA Mogilevich. And what’s seme? And he is a former partner of Dmytro Firtash… then it’s understandable.

And it always has been, twenty years. The contract, which is submitted to the Stockholm arbitration to “Gazprom” and “Naftogaz” — the first document that at least someone can show you. And even this document in Moscow has managed to turn into an instrument of political pressure, exchanging awkward Yanukovych at the next gas discount for prolongation of black sea fleet.

In the Ukraine buying Russian gas has become a kind of religion — Russia can not be angry, not that it would increase gas prices. Russia can’t complain because it will shut off the gas and we freeze. Russia can only agree, preferably on her terms, otherwise it will raise prices and shut off the gas. In 2014, the first after independence, the government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk demonstrated not even courage, but simply common sense, refusing to buy Russian gas and decided to sue in the Stockholm arbitration. This route has managed to pass many European countries — but until they achieved from “Gazprom” concessions in court, Yanukovych habitually traded in sovereignty.

Now it is already clear that Russia can win, Russia can lose, but it does not need to be afraid of. In a real court — where I can’t call neither Putin nor Miller, will consider the actions, not wishes. Russian gas regardless of whether Ukraine is to buy it or not — becomes a commodity, not thieves Tommy, through which the burglar tries to get into someone’s house.