During a reception organized in honor of the holiday of the first Republic of Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev has addressed the issue of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. “The decisions and resolutions of international organizations are satisfied with us. It is a legal basis for resolving the conflict. At the same time commendable and expressed in recent statements and steps taken. In particular, as the co-chair countries of the Minsk group and the European Union, another structure has been unequivocally state that the status quo is unacceptable and must be changed. However, any steps after these statements not yet taken. We expect that this step will be taken, and the occupier will be under pressure. Our principled stance in the negotiations is absolutely justified, and we in the slightest will not retreat from this policy.”
At first glance it seems that Aliyev’s statement is nothing special. However, the contradiction is that from the statement one gets the impression that its author is irrelevant to the negotiation process.
First, ALEV says that they are satisfied with the statements and actions of the international community and especially the Minsk group of OSCE on settlement of the Karabakh conflict. But immediately in the next sentence, States that have not yet taken steps towards implementation of applications. Second, for the first time, Aliev expressed satisfaction with the actions of international organizations and the OSCE Minsk group, despite the fact that neither the negotiation process nor in principles and methods of intermediaries, nothing has changed after a four-day war in April of last year.
In August 2016 similar claims and the negotiation process has forced Aliyev to declare: “At us behind closed doors under pressure in order to force the agreement on recognition of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. We do not disclose many details because there are rules of diplomacy.” And since these statements, pressure intermediaries, in fact, leading to the recognition of NKR independence, began to be beneficial for Baku, Aliyev, of course, is not explained. But it is noteworthy that these optimistic statements he makes on the background of statements of the OSCE MG co-chairs about the fact that on may 15, the Azerbaijani armed forces guided missile struck one of the units of the Armenian defense system. This, recall, the co-chairs openly accused Azerbaijan of aggression. Any reason for optimism Aliyev at the moment, could not give, and Russia. Moscow not only condemned the attack on military equipment of the Armenian armed forces, but a few days later, in the person of the head of the Federal service for military-technical cooperation Dmitry Shugaev, said that in 2017 in the framework of the CSTO in Armenia’s planned new arms sales. We are talking about helicopters, air defense systems, armored vehicles. In fact, regarding the attack on a gas installation the Armenian air defense system is directed at the deterioration of the situation of provocation, Moscow such an information “sink” tried to put Baku in a straitjacket.
In these circumstances, such optimistic statements by Aliyev are talking about two things. First, Baku is at a loss and in a sense, in a panic because of the impasse in their diplomatic and military policy in the Karabakh issue and does not know how to break this impasse. As a result, the Aliyev administration with positive statements trying to justify its policy.
The second conclusion that emerges from unfounded optimistic statements by Aliyev is that Baku with such unsuccessful attempts to break through, while maintaining controlled tension on the border, however, tends at least temporarily to maintain the status quo. Please note, in his last speech Aliyev said that may resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by force, as he usually does. On the contrary, considering the actions of the international community is very beneficial for himself, he actually for some time obessmyslivaet option of a military solution: in the end should not say in the war, if you think that in the diplomatic arena, things are going in your favor.
The reason for this change of tactics is not connected with Aliyev noted factors. The main reason is the internal crisis resulting from social, financial and economic situation that objectively does not allow to think about war, especially about guaranteed her victory. The use of the military adventures without considering these factors may lead to the collapse of the 24-year-old Aliyev’s dictatorship. Given the unfavorable unexpressively and the geopolitical situation, such a position Aliyev temporarily provides insurance against the prospects of a wider war. However, the tendency to preserve the status quo significantly increases the likelihood of increased tension on the contact line, since Aliyev still has the task to save face after these diplomatic failures, managed to keep the political situation the illusion of a real war, of course, to maintain the continuing relevance of the signals that the conflict is not frozen.