Donald trump is very proud of its unpredictability. The US President often brags that he — unlike Obama — does not demonstrate to the world that he plans to do.
But now, during the first presidential foreign trip, Mr. trump, the costs of its unpredictability become evident. Many of America’s allies alarmed and confused, and enemies of America — and in particular China and Russia — are using the events to his advantage.
The problem is that Mr. trump tends to treat foreign countries as competitors in business, which must either enchant or unsettle. The President calls it the “art of the deal”. However, in diplomacy, the unpredictability is dangerous, especially when it comes to allies who need to be persuaded in the sequence of American politics. These countries are building their global strategy on the belief in the stability and reliability of the United States.
When Mr. trump suggests that the key commitments of America — from NATO to the North American free trade area, perhaps more should not be trusted, he undermines the belief that we can trust America. And since the US-led alliances serve as the linchpin of the entire international security system, it could eventually threaten global instability.
The fact that Mr. trump appealed this week to the allies in Saudi Arabia and in Israel with a number of reassuring statements — and may do the same in Brussels — does not negate uncertainty, which the President managed to create before.
In fact, the world now has to deal with three levels of uncertainty associated with Mr. trump. The first concerns the political course of the President, the second is his temperament, the third is the stability of its provisions. On the background of the now raging in Washington scandals is justified to wonder whether Mr. trump to take up his post next year.
At the political level, Mr. trump has already made some dizzying somersaults. During his visit to Saudi Arabia he called Islam “one of the great world religions”, although before that banned all Muslims from entering the United States. He announced that NATO has “outlived its usefulness”, and then denied it. He called China a currency manipulator, but then changed his mind.
He condemned the humanitarian intervention in the middle East, and then hit missiles at Syria to punish its regime for using chemical weapons. He praises Breaksit the EU. His relationship with Russia — a riddle inside a puzzle.
It is true that President Obama is sometimes accused of inconsistency against the allies. Starting its international tour with Saudi Arabia and Israel, Mr. trump is trying to establish contact with the two countries, which were particularly unhappy with the Obama administration.
However, although Saudi Arabia and Israel are part of a small group of allies who rejoiced at the victory, Mr. trump, even they are dissatisfied with the ambiguity of the position of the White house. In his campaign, Mr. trump promised to break the nuclear deal with Iran, which is not like Saudi Arabia. However, in spite of the harsh words he said about Iran in Riyadh, Mr. trump, apparently, has yet to comply with the terms of this transaction. He also promised to transfer the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, but now it seems he changed his mind.
In both cases, the President of the United States is likely to have made the right decision in abandoning the foolish campaign promises, but that does not negate the impression of him as a man on whose word cannot be relied upon prevailing in the country and abroad.
Doubt related to personality characteristics and temperament, Mr. trump, is getting stronger every sharp “tweet” from the White house. Every ally of the United States will now have to think twice before deciding whether it can rely on the commitments of this administration. What if Mr. trump will change his position? And if his presidential power collapse with a crash, and you do not have to pay for too close a rapprochement with the White house?
The more questions arise about America’s international role in the age of trump, the more compete with a superpower in the international arena of the countries that benefit from this situation — which is quite natural. The Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov barely hide their joyful mood during the visit to Mr. Trump in the Oval office.
(Just then, Mr. trump, apparently, has told interlocutors that he fired the head of the Federal Bureau of investigation because he is “crazy”.) Russia is also using the fact that the West is busy with their own problems, strengthens its position in the Balkans and the middle East.
In turn, the striking contrast between Washington’s chaos and confidence of Beijing. On the same week when the administration of the tramp darted, trying to cope with the consequences of the dismissal of James Komi (James Comey), President XI Jinping hosted in the country the largest group of foreign dignitaries since the Beijing Olympics 2008. Chinese project “One belt and one road”, involving multi-billion dollar investments in infrastructure across Eurasia, attracted to the capital of China more than 100 countries concerned. Will be built if at least half of the promised features, this will mean the creation of a China-oriented infrastructure network that will have enormous economic and geopolitical significance.
The wealth of China, its foresight and confidence in the future make now a lot of talk about the “Asian century.” Presidential rule of trump, in contrast, is in danger of becoming a symbol of the decline of the West.